March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[WYorksWeather]

I think temperatures today strongly outperformed expectations. 15C was reached at Pershore, which is far above even today's 12z ECM predicted.

At my location, a brief break in the cloud allowed temperatures to rise quite notably around lunchtime. It's also a notably mild evening.

If we continue to see the models underdoing the temperatures, I really don't think we can rule out an absolute rocketing of the CET. I still think 8C+ is very much on the table. By any measure that would count as yet another very mild month.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP scoring (result is 111.5 mm)

 

In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb).

Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 33.5+5 = 38.5. 

Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 111.5 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each,  so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). 

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg

now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ____EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 4mo  (Ranks, now and after Feb)

 

_01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (15)^__ Jeff C ________________7.07^__30.46 _____21.5 __ 36.53 mm _t4_ (8) ...

_02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ summer18 ___________6.77 __ 29.99 _____23.5 __ 32.68 mm _ 2 _ (2) ...

_03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (12) __ Weather26 ___________7.77 __ 29.90 _____ 19.9 __ 40.13 mm _12_ (16) ...

_04 _ 10 ___129.0 (08) __ DR(S)NO _____________8.58 __ 29.36 _____17.5 __ 39.28 mm_ t9_ (15) ...

_05 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (21) __ J 10 ___________________5.96 __ 28.59 _____ 26.5 __ 36.68 mm _ 6 _ (6) ...

_06 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (08) __ Emmett Garland _____ 8.58 __ 27.07 _____ 17.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 17_ (23) ...

_07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (24) __ Feb1991blizzard______5.36 __ 26.22 _____ 30.5 __ 39.03 mm _ 8 _ (9) ...

_08 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (20) __ snowray ______________6.17 __ 25.71 _____ 24.0 __ 39.28 mm _t9 _ (12) ...

_09 _ 24 ___104.0 (02)__ virtualsphere ________ 9.80 __ 25.52 _______7.5 __ 39.43 mm _ 11 _ (22) ...

_10 _ 23 ___ 95.0 (06) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.18 ___25.35 _____16.5 __ 46.53 mm_ 26 _ (33) ...

_11 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (19)^__stewfox  ______________6.27^__25.06 _____ 23.5 __ 35.48 mm _ 3 _ (4) ...

_12 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (03) __ Polar Gael ____________ 9.58 __ 24.90 _____ 16.4 __ 45.80 mm_ 23 _ (31) ...

_13 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(38.5) __ 36.78 mm _ 7 _ (3) ...

_14 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (35) __ Frigid _________________ 3.12 __ 24.05 _____ 39.5 __ 32.28 mm _ 1_  (1) ...

_15 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (36) __ Don ___________________3.02 __ 23.94 _____39.5 __ 40.28 mm _13 _ (7) ...

_16 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (42) __ godber 1 ______________1.64 __ 23.64 _____48.5 __ 42.03 mm _14 _ (5) ...

(16.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (39.7)___1994-2023 average__2.16 __ 23.49 _____44.2 __44.43 mm _20.0_(12.2) ...

_17 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (22) __ methuselah ___________ 5.76 __ 23.23 _____29.5 __ 47.93 mm _ 27_ (28) ... 

_18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (39) __ February1978 _________ 2.30 __ 22.97 _____43.5 __ 43.53 mm_ 18 _ (11) ...

_19 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (32) __Metwatch ______________ 3.72 __ 22.86 _____35.0 __ 42.67 mm_ 15_ (13) ...

_20 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (28)__I remember Atlantic252__4.65 __22.77 _____33.5 __ 44.93 mm_ 22_ (18) ...

(20.4)(11.4)__65.4 (41.2)__1991-2020 average__1.86 __ 21.95 _____ 46.1 __ 46.38 mm_ 24.4 _(14.9) ...

_21 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (29) __ dancerwithwings _______4.35 __ 21.51 _____34.5 __ 52.28 mm_ t39_ (36) ... 

(21.2)(17.6) _71.5 (36.3) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.88 __ 21.22 _____40.0 __ 48.18 mm_27.3_(22.8) ...

(21.8)(22.7) _78.0 (27) ____ Consensus___________4.75 __ 20.97 _____33.5 __ 49.78 mm_32.5_(30.5) ...

_22 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (13) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 7.57__ 20.75 _____21.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 16_ (t20) ...

_23 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (37) __ jonboy _________________ 2.72 __ 20.94 _____41.5 __ 50.43 mm_ 35 _(t26) ... 

_24 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (30) __ Reef ____________________4.25 __ 20.62 _____34.5 __ 49.18 mm_t30 _ (29) ... 

_25 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (10)^__SteveB _________________ 8.08^__20.26 _____17.5 __ 52.78 mm_ 42 _ (58.) ...

_26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (48) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.34 __ 19.92 _____ 58.5 __ 50.58 mm_ 36 _ (17) ...

_27 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (09) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______8.48 __ 19.51 _____ 17.5 __ 44.43 mm _20_ (t26)  ...   

_28 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (16) __ Midlands Ice Age _______6.97 __ 19.20 _____ 22.5 __ 50.28 mm_ 34_(41) ... 

_29 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (38.5)__ 44.03 mm_ 19_ (14) ...

_30 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (07) __ SLEETY _________________ 9.08 ___18.36 _____16.5 __ 36.53 mm _ t4 _  (10) ...

_31 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (05) __ Stationary Front _______ 9.28 ___18.33 _____16.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (61) ...

_32 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (26) __ Roger J Smith __________ 4.95 __ 17.56 _____32.7 __ 48.85 mm_ 29 _ (29) ...

_33 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (23) __ rwtwm _________________5.56 __ 17.12 _____ 29.5 __ 54.03 mm_ 46 _ (52) ...

_34 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (14) __ weatherforducks ______ 7.47 ___17.03 _____21.5 __ 49.53 mm_ 32 _ (38) ... 

_35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (31) __ Mulzy __________________4.15 __ 16.99 _____ 34.5 __ 54.53 mm_ 47 _ (t46) ...

_36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (33) ___ summer blizzard ______3.52 __ 16.98 _____37.5 __ 55.78 mm _t51 _ (51) ...

_37 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (18)^__seaside60 ______________6.37^__16.00 _____23.5 __ 53.78 mm _t43_ (t54) ...

_38 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (44) __ The PIT _________________1.53 ___15.58 _____51.5 __ 59.03 mm_ 62_  (t48) ...

_39 _ 41 ___ 78.0 (27) __summer8906 ___________4.75 ___14.63 _____33.5 __ 52.28 mm_t39 _(37) ...

_40 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (38)^__davehsug ______________2.32^__ 14.62 _____41.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51_ (43) ...

(40.5)(25.9)_65.5 (38.7) __average of all data ____3.14 __ 14.43 _____46.0 __ 54.88 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8)

_41 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(38.5)__ 46.93 mm _24 _ (19) ...

_42 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(38.5) __ 49.18 mm _t30_ (25) ...

_43 _ 31 ___ -- -- (---) __ moorlander _____________ -- -- __ 13.13 _____ (38.5) __ 48.53 mm_ 28 _ (24) ... 

_44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(38.5)__ 47.03 mm _25_ (t20) ...

_45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (34) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.32 ___11.68 _____39.0 __ 61.75 mm _66 _ (65) ...

_46 _ 42 ___ 60.0 (45) __ daniel* __________________ 1.43 ___11.25 ____ 51.5 __ 62.78 mm_ 67 _ (60) ...

_47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(38.5)__ 58.53 mm_ 61 _ (59) ...

_48 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (04) __ syed2878 ________________ 9.38 ___ 9.87 _____16.5 __ 74.03 mm_ 73 _ (73)  ...

_49 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (42) __ Leo97t ___________________1.63 ___ 9.44 _____51.5 __ 67.78 mm _ 69 _ (67) ...

_50 _(---) __110.0 (01)^^ _B87 _____________________ 9.40^^_9.40 ______ 1.5 __ 44.50 mm_ 21 _ (---) _ first entry ...

_51 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(38.5) __ 50.03 mm _ 33 _ (28) ...

_52 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __  John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (t48) ...

_53 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (40) __ Weather Observer _______2.10 ___ 7.68 _____44.5 __ 67.93 mm _ 70 _ (69) ...

_54 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(38.5) __ 51.78 mm_ 38 _ (32) ...

_55 _ 52  __ --- --- (---) __  Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(38.5) __ 52.28 mm_t39 _ (34) ...

_56 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________ 0.00 ___ 6.25 _____68.5 __ 75.73 mm_ 74 _ (70) ...

_57 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(38.5) __ 50.78 mm_ 37_ (30) ... 

_58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(38.5) __ 61.20 mm_ 65 _ (64) ...

_59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(38.5) __ 53.93 mm_ 45 _ (40) ...

_60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(38.5) __ 53.78 mm_t43 _ (39)  ...

_61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(38.5) __ 59.53 mm _ 63 _ (62) ...

_62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (41) __shillitocettwo ______________1.90 ___ 5.24 _____45.5 ___ 73.13 mm _72 _ (71) ...

_63 _ 73  __ 81.0 (25)^^__Wade ___________________4.56^^__4.96 _____30.5 ___ 72.28 mm_ 71 _ (66) ...

_64 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(38.5) __ 55.18 mm_ 48_ (44)  ...

_65 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_t51_(t49)  ...

_66 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(38.5) __ 55.28 mm_ 49_(45) ...

_67 _ 63  __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(38.5) __ 55.58 mm _ 50_ (t46) ...

_68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (38.5) __ 57.03 mm_ 56 _ (53) ...

_69 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...

_70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46)  __ Neil N ____________________ 0.75 ___ 2.59 _____ 56.5 __ 78.78 mm_ 75 _ (72) ...

t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_t57_ (t54)  ...

t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...

_73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(38.5) __ 66.28 mm_ 68 _ (68) ...

_74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (38.5)__ 60.20 mm_ 64_ (63) ...

_75 _ --- __ 54.0 (47) __ sunny_vale ________________0.24^___0.24 ____ 57.5 ___ 58.50 mm_ 60_ (---)  _ first entry ...

 

note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. 

 

Log of results (winter report for cross-reference to above)

RANKS ____ FORECASTER __________________ POINTS ___________________ ERRORS (ranks)

F _ J _ D _______________________________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _Total ___________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _ avg ___ ranks F J D

note: winter ranks are Feb ranks

01_02_04 ___ noname_weather ____ 9.43_8.22_6.76__24.36 ______ 32.3_ 7.2 _69.1___36.20 mm _ 3 _ 1_  4 

02_05_14 ___ Jeff C _________________ 7.53_8.38_7.48 __23.39 ______ 51.3_ 7.2_66.1 ___41.53 mm _ 8 _9_ t14

03_13_28 ___ summer18 ___________ 4.88_8.88_9.46__23.22 ______ 73.3_ 4.8_29.1 ___35..73 mm_ 2_18_ t27 

04_01_08 ___  J 10 __________________ 8.67_9.12_4.84__22.63 ______ 41.3_ 2.8_76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _3_ 8

05_10_30 ___ Weather26 ___________4.37_9.92_7.84__22.13 ______ 76.3 _1.2_63.1__46.87 mm_ 16_17_30

06_07_06 ___ godber 1 _____________9.14_6.20_6.66__22.00 ______ 37.3_13.2_69.1__39.87 mm _  5_ 4_t5

(6.6)(4.7) 17.6) _ 1994-2023 average _ 6.86_9.33_5.14__21.33 ____ 55.0_ 2.4_76.1__44.50 mm _12.2_9.1_17.6

07_22_02 ___ Frigid  ________________9.81_1.30_9.82__20.93 ______ 26.3_42.2_21.1__29.87 mm _ 1_t10_ 2 

08_03_03 ___ Don __________________ 9.62_7.47_3.83__20.92 _____ 31.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 40.53 mm _ 7 _ 2 _ 3

09_06_09 ___ Feb1991blizzard _____ 8.48_8.48_5.32__20.86 _____ 42.3_10.2_73.1__41.87 mm _ 9 _6 _ 9

10_09_20 ___  DR(S)NO _____________ 6.38_8.30_6.10__20.78 _____ 61.3_ 7.2_71.1__46.53 mm _15_ t10_20

11_19_12 ___ February1978 _________7.91_4.02_8.74__20.67_____ 47.3_26.2_57.1__43.53 mm _11_14_12

(11.4)5.4)19.1)__1991-2020 average _6.55_9.23_4.31__20.09 ____57.7_ 3.0_78.7__46.47 mm_ 14.9_9.3_19.1

12_04_11 ___ WYorksWeather _______8.10_8.56_2.92__19.58 ____ 46.3_ 6.4_91.1 __47.93 mm _ 17_  7_11

13_08_07 ___ snowray _______________ 8.86_6.26_4.42__19.54 ____ 39.8_15.2_78.1__44.37 mm_ 12 _ 8 _ 7 

14_28_25 ___ Metwatch ______________5.38_4.66_9.10__19.14 ____ 66.3_23.2_46.1 __45.20 mm_ 13_29_25

15_26_10 ___ chilly milly _____________ 8.29_2.10_8.46__18.85 ____ 43.3_35.2_59.1 __45.87 mm_ 14_ 19_10

16_32_38 ___ stewfox  _______________2.85_5.94_10.00__18.79 ____ 86.3_17.2_14.9 __39.47 mm_ 4 _t43_t38

17_25_33 __ Emmett Garland _______ 3.89_6.58_8.02__18.49 ____ 80.3_13.2_60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23_t33_t32

(17.6)8.7)22.4)__1981-2010 average___5.90_8.96_3.48__18.34 ___63.9_4.2_84.6___50.90 mm _22.8_ 9.9_ 22.4

18 _20_43 __ jonboy _________________ 1.90_9.38_6.94__18.22 ____ 90.3_ 1.8_68.1 __53.40 mm_ t26_31_43           

19_30_13 __ I remember Atlantic252__7.72_1.85_8.56__18.12____ 49.3_37.8_59.1__48.73 mm_ 18_27_13

20_12_27 __ methuselah _____________ 4.98_9.20_3.29__17.47 ____ 73.3_ 2.8_86.1 __54.07 mm _ 28_16_t27

21_24_49 __  dancerwithwings _______0.76_10.00_6.40__17.16 ____102.3_1.2_71.1__58.20 mm_ 36_t43_49

22_18_29 ___ Reef ____________________ 4.56_7.76_4.05__16.37 _____ 74.3_ 8.8_79.1 __54.07 mm_ 29_22_29

(22.7)22.4)27) ___ Consensus_________ 4.98_6.10_5.14__16.22 _____ 73.3_16.2_76.1__ 55.20 mm_30.5_29_27

23_37_44 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 1.71_6.10_8.36__16.17 _____  94.3_16.2_59.1__ 56.53 mm_ 33 _t50_44

24_11_01 ___ virtualsphere __________10.00_4.24_1.48__15.72 _____ 25.3_25.8_99.1__ 50.07 mm _ 22_  5_ 1

25_34_23 ___ Polar Gael ______________ 5.78_2.42_7.12__15.32 _____64.8_34.9_67.1__ 55.60 mm _ 31 _39_23

(25.9)19.9)26.5)_ average of all data __ 5.09_6.20_3.34__14.63 _____72.2_15.6_85.6__ 57.80 mm_ 34.8_27.8_26.5

26_39_--- ___ KirkcaldyWeather ______ --- _5.30_8.92 ___14.22 _____ 78.3_20.6_50.3__ 49.73 mm _19_38_---

27_16_36 ___ The PIT _________________ 3.41_9.52_1.12__14.05 _____81.3_ 2.2_101.1__61.53 mm_t48_ t23_t34

28_21_40 ___ summer blizzard _______ 2.47_8.71_2.28__13,46 _____87.3_ 6.2_92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51_t33_40

29_35_--- ___ ScottD ___________________ ---_ 7.92_ 5.50__13.42 _____78.3_ 7.8_72.1__ 52.73 mm _25_25_ ---

30_14_19 ___ Let It Snow! ______________6.58_6.60_---__13.18 _____ 57.3_11.2_ 81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_t10_ 19

31_15_24 ___ moorlander _____________ 5.58_7.55_ ---__13.13 _____ 65.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 51.87 mm_ 24_15_ 24

32_29_26 ___ Mulzy ____________________5.18_4.84_2.82__12.84 _____71.3_21.2_91.1__61.20 mm_ t46_32_26

33_59_45 ___Roger J Smith ____________1.52_1.46_9.64 __12.62 _____96.6_40.9_25.3__ 54.27 mm_ 29_63_45

34_39_17 ___ davehsug _______________ 6.96_0.40_4.94__12.30 _____53.3_52.2_76.1 __60.53 mm_ 43 _t47_17

35_52_47 ___ SteveB __________________ 1.14_3.38_7.66 __12.18 _____98.3_30.2_65.1 __64.53 mm_ 58 _t58_47

36_17_05 ___prolongedSnowLover ____9.24_3.06_ --- __ 12.30 ______37.3_31.2_81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_ t10 _t05

37_36_18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ________6.77_1.14_4.32__12.23 ______56.3_44.2_78.1__59.53 mm_ 41_40_18

38_27_22 ___ rwtwm ___________________5.98_4.28_1.30__11.56 _____ 63.3_23.2_100.1__62.20 mm_52_26_22

39_57_37 __ Somerset girl _____________ 3.04_0.76_7.40__11.18 _____ 84.3_44.2_66.1__64.87 mm_ 59_t58_37

40_23_15 ___ Addicks Fan 1981 ________ 7.43_3.60_ ---__11.03 _____ 51.3_27.8_81.1__53.40 mm _t26_20_t14

41_42_ --- ___ summer8906 ____________ ---- _ 6.40_3.48__ 9.88 ______ 78.3_12.8_84.6__58.53 mm_ 37_30_ ---

42_41_39 ___ daniel* ___________________2.75_3.78_3.29__ 9.82 _____ 86.3_27.2_86.1__66.53 mm_ 60_53_t38

43_38_16 ___ seaside60 ________________ 7.03_0.58_2.02__ 9.63 _____ 51.3_45.2_95.1__63.87 mm _t54_37_t14

44_56_ --- __ weatherforducks __________---- _3.86_5.70__ 9.56 _____ 78.3_27.2_71.1 __58.87 mm_ 38_t47_ ----

45_---_--- __ SLEETY _____________________---- _ ---- _ 9.28 __9.28 ______78.3_21.2_30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ ----_ ----

46_31_ --- ___Tillys ______________________ --- 9.14__ --- ___ 9.14 ______ 78.3_ 2.2_ 81.1 __ 53.87 mm _28_21_----

47_55_46 ___Stationary Front _________ 1.33_2.58__5.04__8.95 ______97.3_33.2_76.1 __68.87 mm_ 61_60_46

48_45_31 ___ Bobd29 __________________4.18_1.62_2.56__ 8.36 _____ 78.3_38.2_91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65_54_31

49_33_34 ___ John88b __________________3.61_4.68_ --- ___8.29 _____ 81.3_22.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_ t48 _t43_t34

50_63_48 ___ Leo97t ___________________0.96_0.66_6.20__ 7.81_____101.3_47.2_71.1__ 73.20 mm _ 67_65_48

51 _ 51 ___ jmp223 _____________________ --- __7.08_ ----  __ 7.08 _____ 78.3_ 9.2_81.1 __ 56.20 mm _32_28_ ----

52_---_---  __ Matt Stoke ________________ --- _ --- _ 6.30 ___ 6.30 ______78.3_21.2_71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _----_----

53_43_50 ___ summer shower ________ 0.57_5.68_0.00___6.25_____105.3_17.8_111.1__78.13 mm_ 70_57_50

54_44_21 ___ Wold Topper ____________ 6.18_  ---- _---- ___6.18 _____ 62.3_21.2_81.1 __ 54.87 mm _ 30_t23_21

55_64_ ----___ Shaunado _______________---- _0.50_ 5.14___5.64 _____ 78.3_51.9_76.1__ 68.77 mm_ 64_61_----

56_46_ --- ___ summer of 95 __________ -- -- __5.60_---- ___5.60 _____ 78.3_17.8_81.1 __ 59.07 mm_ 40_36_----

57_50_42 ___Weather Observer ________2.18_2.82_0.58___5.58 _____89.3_32.2_106.1__75.87 mm _ 69_55_t41

58_48_---- ___Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __5.56 _---- ___5.56 _____78.3_17.2_81.1__ 58.87 mm _ 39_35_----

59_47_35 ___Earthshine ________________ -- -- __ 5.45_ --- __ 5.45 _____ 78.3_17.2_81.1 __ 66.53 mm _ 62_56_t34 

60_51_----___EastLancsRain ______________-- -- __ 4.88 _ ---__ 4.88 _____ 78.3_22.8_81.1__ 60.73 mm_ 44_41_----

61_53_---- ___harveyslugger _____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _ ---__ 4.34 _____ 78.3_25.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_t49_t43_----

62_54_32 ___Alexis J9 ____________________ 3.99_ ---- __ ----__ 3.99 _____ 80.3_21.2_ 81.1 __60.87 mm_ 45_42_t32

63_---_ --- ___ snowblind _________________ -- -- _ -- -- _ 3.67__ 3.67 _____ 78.3_21.2_84.1 __61.20 mm _ t46_ ----_ ----

64_61_51 __ shillitocettwo _______________0.38_2.02_0.94___ 3.34 _____110.3_34.8_102.1__82.40 mm _71_64_51

65_58_--- __ sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- _ 3.30_---- ___ 3.30 _____ 78.3_30.2_81.1 __  63.20 mm_ 53_49_----

66_60_ --- __ Climate Man _______________ -- -- ___ 2.90_----___ 2.90_____ 78.3_32.3_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_----

t67_62_41 __gazse9 _____________________ 2.28 _ -- -- _ -- ---__  2.28 _____  89.3_21.2_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_t41

t67 _--- _--- __catbrainz __________________ ---- _ ---- _ 2.28 ___ 2.28 ______ 78.3_21.2_92.1 __63.87 mm_ t54_----_-----

69_65_ ---- __ Norrance ________________ -- --__ 0.30 _ 1.74 __ 2.04 _____ 78.3_52.2_96.1 __75.53 mm_ 68 _62_----

70_67_53 __ Neil N _____________________0.00 _---- _1.84 __ 1.84 __140.3_21.2_96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72_66_53

71_---_--- __ baddie ____________________ ---- _ ---- _ 0.76 ___ 0.76 __78.3_21.2_102.8__ 67.43 mm_ 63_----_----

72_66_52 __ syed2878 _________________0.19_0.00_0.30 ___ 0.49 __111.3_54.2_111.1__93.20 mm_ 73_67_52

73_---_--- ___Wade _____________________ ---- _ ----_ 0.40 ___ 0.40 ____78.3_21.2_111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66_----_----

 

Table of forecasts for March 2024 ... EWP with range and sign errors indicated (scoring int's before applying are 0.20)

 

10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO  21 

 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 2

 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 1

 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 3

 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 4

 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 5

 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 6

 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7

 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 8

 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 9

 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 10

 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 11

 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 12

 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 13

 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 14

 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 15

 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 16

 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __  seaside60^ 17

 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ stewfox^ 18

 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 19

 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 20

 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah  22

 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 23

 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 24

 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^  25

 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith  26

 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 27

 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 27

 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252  28

 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 29

 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 30

 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 31

 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 32

 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 33

 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 34

 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 35

 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 36

 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 36.2

 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 37

 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 38

 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 39 

 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 39.7

 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer  40

 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 41

 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 41.2

 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1  (-.01) 42

 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________61.6___1766-2023 42.5

 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t (-.02) 43

 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT (-.02) 44

 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* (-.02) 45

 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N (-.05) 46

 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ (-.06) 47

 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (-.06) 48

 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (-.06) 49

 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 

 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________

 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023  ________________

 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________

 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________

 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________

_________________________

47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far)

total 55 CET, 49 EWP (^late day)

Edited April 5 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 12th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

A significant rise in the days ahead, likely to be in the 7s going into the last third, but lots of uncertainty how the last third will pan out. Chances of a below average month looking very slim, but something closer to average still not out of the question.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.4C -0.1C below average. Rainfall 40.6mm 67.1% of the monthly average.

So we have lift off and a rapid rise for a while before it levels off. Looking pretty well another mild month coming up.

[damianslaw]

 The PIT Becoming the norm? Question is when will our next below 61-90 month arrive? Sods law a summer month. We came very close last July.. this month will be the 15th above average month in a row, unprecedented I think? We had long runs in 2014-15 06-07 and 16-17.

[Don]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Chances of a below average month looking very slim, but something closer to average still not out of the question.

Closer to the 91-20 average maybe, but I think even the chances of that are slim as it stands?

[Scorcher]

 Don Yes anything other than above average looks unlikely to me. Can't see where any cold is coming from.

[WYorksWeather]

Close to average would in my view imply half a degree either side of 6.7C if you're using 1991-2020. It's possible, but would require a definite cooldown in the final third.

The next week looks like averaging 10C means overall I would've thought. If we take the current 6.2C and add an average of 10C for the next 7 days, we'd wind up at 7.6C. It would then only require averages of about 6C for a slow drift back down to the low 7s or high 6s.

However, if the mild weather continues beyond that, or if it is even milder than that and we average 11C or 12C for the next week, then it's going to be very tough I think to get back to the 1991-2020 average, let alone the 1961-1990 average! 

[Derecho]

The CET for today should come in at around 11.7C. According to the EC 12z control, it looks very mild from here in the closer term with the odd chilly night bringing in a closer to average daily CET. The 15th may fluctuate a bit depending on the timing of colder air.

13th: 11.7 (6.6)
14th: 10.7 (6.9)
15th: 10.6 (7.1)
16th: 6.3 (7.1)
17th: 11.8 (7.4)
18th: 10.6 (7.6)
19th: 10.1 (7.7)
20th: 9.5 (7.8)
21st: 5.5 (7.7)
22nd: 7.7 (7.7)
23rd: 9.8 (7.8)
24th: 9.7 (7.8)
25th: 10.8 (8.0)
26th: 12.4 (8.1)
27th: 13.1 (8.3)
28th: 11.9 (8.4)

So high 7s looking like a good bet into the last week of March. After that is anybody's guess, the control is one of the warmest members in the later stages.

Edited March 13 by Derecho

[raz.org.rain]

 damianslaw if we continue this theme of considerably above average throughout summer, it makes you wonder just how ridiculously warm it'll be.

[Roger J Smith]

I just visited CET download site and saw a new notice about yet another revision of CET data scheduled for release later this month. Who knows what we will be dealing with for a data base after that ... but using v2.0.1.0 for now ...

(and realizing Feb is shorter than March but taking an average of the two means)

... a lot of scorchers (but also 1903, 1961, 1998 etc) follow warmth in Feb-Mar ...

 

Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record ... all cases of average 6.7 +

Rank ___ Year ___ FEB _ MAR ____ avg ______ warmest summer CET avg (graphical format)

_ 01 ____ 1779 ___ 7.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.9 __________ 17.9 July

_ 02 ____ 1990 ___ 7.3 __ 8.3 ____ 7.8 __________18.0 Aug

_t03 ____1961 ___ 6.9 __ 8.2 ____ 7.55 __________________ 15.4 Aug

_t03 ____1997 ___ 6.7 __ 8.4 ____ 7.55 ______ 19.0 Aug

_t05 ____1945 ___ 7.1 __ 7.9 ____ 7.5 _____________ 16.7 July

_t05 ____1998 ___ 7.2 __ 7.8 ____ 7.5 _______________ 16.0 Aug

_t05 ____2017 ___ 6.2 __ 8.8 ____ 7.5 ____________16.9 July

_t08 ____1750 ___ 6.7 __ 8.2 ____ 7.45 ___________17.2 July 

_t08 ____2022 ___ 6.9 __ 8.0 ____ 7.45 ______ 18.7 Aug (and extremes July)

_ 10 ____ 2019 ___ 6.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.4 ___________ 17.6 July

_ 11 ____ 2002 ___ 7.0 __ 7.6 ____ 7.3 ____________ 17.0 Aug

_t12 ____1734 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 ____ 7.25 ______________16.2 July & Aug

_t12 ____1957 ___ 5.3 __ 9.2 ____ 7.25 ______________16.3 July

_t14 ____1794 ___ 7.2 __ 7.0 ____ 7.1 __________18.1 July

_t14 ____1903 ___ 7.1 __ 7.1 ____ 7.1 __________________ 15.3 July

_t14 ____1938 ___ 5.1 __ 9.1 ____ 7.1 _______________16.3 Aug

_ 17 ____ 1822 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8 ____ 7.05 ___________17.1 June

_ 18 ____ 2014 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7 ____ 7.0 __________ 17.8 July

_ 19 ____ 1815 ___ 6.5 __ 7.3 ____ 6.9 __________________ 15.3 Aug

_t20 ____ 1872 ___ 6.9 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 ___________17.1 July

_t20 ____ 2000 ___ 6.2 __ 7.5 ____ 6.85 ____________16.7 Aug

_t20 ____ 2011 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 _________________15.5 Aug

_t23 ____ 1989 ___ 6.0 __ 7.5 ____ 6.75 ________18.1 July

_t23 ____ 2023 ___ 6.5 __ 7.0 ____ 6.75 ___________17.0 June, Sep

_ 25 ____ 1871 ___ 6.1 __ 7.3 ____ 6.7 ____________17.2 Aug

_t26 ____ 2007 ___ 6.0 __ 7.3 ____ 6.65 ________________ 15.5 Aug 

_t26 ____ 2020 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.65 __________17.7 Aug

(1920 avg 6.6, 14.4 June, a very poor summer; 1912 also avg 6.3)

also fitting pattern before 1930 ... 

(1926 was 6.8, 6.3 (6.55) and _____________________ 17.1 July)

(1868 was 6.3, 6.8 (6.55) and ______________ 18.2 July)

(1859 was 5.7, 7.3 (6.5) and _______________ 18.3 July)

(1846 was 6.4, 6.1 (6.25) and ______________ 18.2 June)

(1826 was 6.4, 6.3 (6.35) and _______________17.9 July, also 19.5 late June-late July)

... 1869 was 7.5, 3.8, an exception to rule most mild Febs are followed by at least a mild-average march. (17.3 July)

Not all hot summers are preceded by warm Febs into march, for example 1747, 1783, 1808, 1947, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1955, 1983, 1995 (only Feb was mild), 2006, 2013 and 2018. 

But it does seem like a loaded deck for summer warm spells, looking at list above. In cooler climate before 1900, trend is similar from a distribution perspective (mild Feb-mar back before 1900 often closer to 6.5). 

1948 was near average in Feb (4.7) and mild in march (8.3), and avg was 6.5 ... summer generally cool except for 3-4 days of scorching heat at end of July. 

Edited March 14 by Roger J Smith
2018 incorrectly entered for 2017

[kold weather]

I wonder what sort of figure the 17.9 from 1779 would be if adjusted for climate ìnflation? Given how much we've warmer uve got to think that'd be a 19c month if it happened in todays climate

Certainly some interesting years in that list though

[Roger J Smith]

Well, as there were months well into the 18 range back then (July 1783 was 18.8), I don't know how much we could assume the 17.9 of 1779 was "really" 18.2 or 18.4, but the catch is that the data for CET before 1900 is generally west-London suburban in origin and would run a bit warmer than CET was then running (if it had been running) ... so perhaps the "modern conditions" and the shift in grid cancel out and it's a real 17.9?

I hope the proposed new data base isn't going to up the level of revision of the old data base but if it appears non-homogeneous then I suppose we have to accept it. I can't see how you would revise it region to region when differentials are not always the same from one setup to another. Could be a good opportunity to retire from this pursuit, my age is very suggestive of closing down the shop anyway. I suspect April 1775 and February 1779 could be getting shoved off the ship let's see if that's valid or not. 

[Roger J Smith]

I was reading online documents on CET site, and it looks like they will be pruning recent data on a regular basis, we may not actually be in the position we once thought in terms of no more revisions of posted data. We cannot be sure it will always look as it does now. But I do not see evidence of a desire to go way back and revise a lot of old data, perhaps I am missing a point.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 13th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[kold weather]

I think we can already basically rule out a below 61-90 month now. Itd probably require the last 10 days to pull off a 2013 repeat which by modern standards is probably one of the more exceptional cold spells relative to the mean (along with Dec 10, Dec 22)

I just don't see anything in that kind of ballpark. That's not to rule out a cool down of course, bit as the mean increases towards the end of the month its going to have to be that bit more impressive.

The wait goes on then...

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So looking at Derecho's latest projections above,  Feb and Mar 2024 could be taking first place in Roger's Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record chart in a couple of weeks.  Depressing, considering the cloud cover, but perhaps in large part, because of it. 

Edited March 14 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[North-Easterly Blast]

 Roger J Smith In your list of warm February to March periods, 2018 is listed.  That is definitely incorrect, as 2018 definitely did not have a warm February to March period.  Both February and March of that year were below average (on the 1961-90 scale as well), so 2018 is definitely a hot summer that was not preceded by a warm February to March period.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.7C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 42.3mm 69.8% of the monthly rainfall.

[BruenSryan]

 North-Easterly Blast Think he meant 2017 (as the Feb and Mar figures in his post match that year) but accidentally put down 2018 and July 2018 as the highest summer month CET which 2017 was July 16.9C.

[Wade]

I have had 23mm so far in my location this month so not too bad compared to some in the SE but we aren't even half way through the month yet so the totals are likely to build (not that we need them right now) So this March won't be quite as wet as February but not dry either, average for my location I am guessing and yet again milder than average

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, it should be 2017 and not 2018 for list, and I edited details on the highest CET. I reviewed other data in table and didn't find any others needing work, hoping it's accurate now. 

[WYorksWeather]

Worth noting just how mild (perhaps even how warm?) the GFS 12z output is for next week and right through to next weekend. It was an outlier, but interesting to see this sort of scenario being modelled. If we were to extend a run averaging 10C means out to the 23rd March, the CET by that point would reach 8.0C. And some of the days next week are so mild that the average for the next 10 days could even be higher than that. An 11C average would bring the CET up to 8.5C.

Very much not out of the question that we could see yet another exceptionally mild month overall, despite a cool first week. Of course, at the upper end of possibilities. I still think a finish in the 7s is the safest bet, but that could change if this solution starts to gather ensemble support.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

WYorksWeather, Your 8.4C prediction is going to be close imo. I went for 9.3C which is obviously still going to be well above the finishing figure, but not as much as I thought a week ago.

 

Edited March 14 by BlueSkies_do_I_see