Cat 5 Hurricane Katrina

[kold weather]

Latest Recon:

237

URNT12 KNHC 281431

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 28/14:17:00Z

B. 25 deg 58 min N

088 deg 03 min W

C. 700 mb 2294 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 306 deg 140 kt

G. 221 deg 014 nm

H. 907 mb

I. 12 C/ 3059 m

J. 26 C/ 3048 m

K. 6 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C22

N. 12345/ 7

O. 1 / 1 nm

P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 21

MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION

Stadium effect would seem to indicate that this storm is still Annular.Pressure down to 907mbs,winds of 166kts on surface would equal roughly 170-155mph.This is a F***** monster man,cricky this is nearly as strong as Camille,and so this season takes it into another gear....

Projected damage is 31 billion dollars,based on a 145mph cat-4.

Edited August 28, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

213mph gusts now. Think my answer is wrong somehow

I had no idea what stadium effect was..this helps http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadium_effect

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy

[SxK]

Latest Recon:

Stadium effect would seem to indicate that this storm is still Annular.Pressure down to 907mbs,winds of 166kts on surface would equal roughly 170-155mph.This is a F***** monster man,cricky this is nearly as strong as Camille,and so this season takes it into another gear....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

166Knots on the surface would equate to about 153Knots which is approximately 176mph.

[kold weather]

ps,by the way I've been taking satilite images over the last few hours and radar images,might do a case-study on this hurricane at the end of the season,could prove very intresting.

Certainly proves you can rule nothing out in the tropics,esp considering 14 days ago it was a wave with little future.....

[Mondy]

WDSU TV has up to the minute gust recordings..still saying 213mph max gust..anyone reckon that is actually correct?

[SnowBear]

166kts flight level, thats about 190mph

90% for estimate for surface winds is it? roughly 150kts = 172mph surface winds

I reckon that 213mph gust is probably true.

[Mondy]

Advisory update:

WTNT32 KNHC 281443

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN

STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST

FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM

EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM

WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH

MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA

EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY

LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN

STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS

BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE

CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF

COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND

OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...

175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM

CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Mondy]

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL

WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD

ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE

GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN

INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER. GPS

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED

KATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB

LEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A

WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED

N MI FROM THE CENTER. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL

STRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANES

RARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME. HOWEVER WE SEE

NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE

SYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY

4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATRINA SHOULD GRADUALLY

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN

UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE

RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. RECALLING THAT THE AVERAGE NHC 24-HOUR

TRACK FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 N MI...THE ACTUAL LANDFALL POINT

COULD STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE

MISSISSIPPI COAST. ALSO...WE MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE

HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...BECAUSE DESTRUCTIVE

WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...STORM SURGE...AND DANGEROUS WAVES EXTEND

WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTY

OR PARISH WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER.

THIS ADVISORY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI

INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND WARNINGS ISSUED

BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Kain]

I know I'm thick, but how does the pressure change what the strength of the Hurricane is, also why is it measured in inches as well as mb?

Kain

[Methuselah]

I know I'm thick, but how does the pressure change what the strength of the Hurricane is, also why is it measured in inches as well as mb?

Kain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The lower the central pressure, the steeper the pressure gradient, the stronger the winds will be...

Inches is the old imperial measure of atmospheric pressure...It's somtimes still on barometers?

[Mondy]

Generally, lower the pressure, the tighter the isobars and wind speeds.

Measured in inches and mb's has always been standard ways. The USA does typically manufacture barometers in inches. Whilst we tend to use mb's over here.

Just a footnote, it's forecast to make landfall at high tide...unbelievable

Edited August 28, 2005 by Mondy

[SxK]

Just a footnote, it's forecast to make landfall at high tide...unbelievable

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is rather a bold statement but on present evidence New Orleans will be anihiliated - I remember doing a case study on New Orleans when the Mississippi River flooded in the 90s and this is going to be far worse.

Forgetting the 175mph winds for a second - just the storm surge could leave the city under 10-15feet of water.

[Mondy]

Nothing at all bold about it sam..New Orleans, if directly hit, is gone...

Couple of updated charts.

[Matty M]

Damn i feel soo guilty Because i cant help but being really excited

I just pray that everyone gets outta there and that this storm stays

under control..

If it goes below 900mb's i think New Orleans will be.. literally wiped out

[Louby]

Damn i feel soo guilty    Because i cant help but being really excited  

I just pray that everyone gets outta there and that this storm stays

under control..

If it goes below 900mb's i think New Orleans will be.. literally wiped out

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I cant believe how quickly this storm has grown. What are the chances of it going below 900mb's?

[Mondy]

Not very good at reading dropsonde readings, anyone confirm the latest dropsonde read 866mb??? (if true)!!

[kold weather]

Not in that way Mondy,a wind gust of 233kts I believe was found at 866mbs in hieght.Pressure is still at 907mbs I believe.

[Mondy]

Thanks kold

This is a very interesting transcript below; worth reading

http://www.pbs.org/now/transcript/transcript_neworleans.html

[SxK]

Latest from NHC:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB

EYE DIAMETER 20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.

185KT gusts = 213mph

I think you will all join me in saying a prayer for New Orleans!!

[Methuselah]

I think you will all join me in saying a prayer for New Orleans!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Definitely sam...I think that this will be serious!

[SnowBear]

I will join you indeed, prayers and blessings for the Big Easy, lets hear your music and see your colour, character and parties again asap.

[AmericanIceman]

What are the chances of this storm keeping it's 175 MPH winds or getting stronger and making landfall at that intensity? I love hurricanes and freak weather, but this one is just crazy bad. Not looking good at all....

[SxK]

What are the chances of this storm keeping it's 175 MPH winds or getting stronger and making landfall at that intensity?  I love hurricanes and freak weather, but this one is just crazy bad.  Not looking good at all....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The next few hours will reveal that - NHC think it will weaken before it hits - but their understanding of fluctuations in intensity is limited as they openly admit.

Personally I would guess on present evidence that it will hit between 165-175..to be honest it doesnt matter - the damage will be nothing short of disasterous whether it is 165mph or 175mph.

Edited August 28, 2005 by samkeep

[clv101]

One last look at New Orleans before it gets wiped off the map.

[Mondy]

Jeez! Not the best image, but enough to give you the size of this thing.