Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[carinthian]

Carinthian, here's a nice read from the IAN website

Thickest Pack Ice in Memory in Iceland

4 Feb 07 - Thick pack ice, the like of which has not been seen for decades, stretched into the western fjords as temperatures plummeted and a bitter wind blew in from Greenland.

"I have lived here my whole life, but I have never seen so much pack ice before," said Helgi Árnason, a farmer in Dyrafjördur.

"Forty years ago, large icebergs drifted on to beaches but it was nothing compared with this.

"[Pack ice] used to be Iceland's ancient enemy, but we stay calm so long as the situation doesn't worsen. This is just to remind us where we live."

hi bLAST,

Just read your post. Check out my post No 268 published on 29/1/06 regarding the above. Will try and get an update from the Coastal Guard.

C

[carinthian]

hi bLAST,

Just read your post. Check out my post No 268 published on 29/1/06 regarding the above. Will try and get an update from the Coastal Guard.

C

Looks like that pack ice has now drifted aways into the Denmark Strait out of the Icelandic Fjords in the NW.

C

[summer blizzard]

I was'nt looking at anything in particular, i just wanted another take on things to back Carinthian up really.

I must say, the Siberian sectors are doing very well this year in comparison to recent years, where melt has started early, as is the Barents.

Canadian is a little worrying, though that may be due to the Candaian High.

[carinthian]

Hi,

Arctic grip peaking in Quebec today. MS22c with severe wind chill warnings of MS35. Gusts to 50k/ph and blowing snow forecast.

C

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a recent infra-red image of the Canadian arctic showing the extent of ice there:

www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_canarc_ir_100.jpg

Some features to note here --

Ice now hugs the shoreline of Alaska and northwest Canada, so the situation of some previous winters with open water in the southern Beaufort Sea has been replaced by what looks like open water leads further north. These would be temporary and caused by recent windstorms in the area.

Note that Hudson Bay is all ice-covered now, as is almost all of James Bay. Once again, this is an improvement over some recent winters when ice was not able to cover all of these subarctic areas (James Bay is the same latitude as England, but as Henry Hudson found out, hardly in the same climatic zone).

Open water in the waters between Baffin and Greenland represent a fairly normal ice distribution for this time of year. You can see a few open leads even between Devon and Ellesmere Islands. But in general terms, there is more ice, and probably thicker ice, in parts of the Canadian arctic than has been the case in some recent winters.

Severe cold now covers the eastern 2/3 of Canada, with -40 C in northern Ontario this morning. A severe snowstorm is developing for the next 48 hours across the lower Great Lakes region.

I was looking on another image at ice in the Great Lakes, this looks fairly normal now after a slow start. Superior is getting a fairly extensive ice cover, eastern Georgian Bay and Erie are mainly frozen, and Huron and Michigan have local ice in bays. Ontario rarely shows much ice, it is too deep and the water temps in Lake Ontario stay around 2-3 C most winters.

[carinthian]

Here's a recent infra-red image of the Canadian arctic showing the extent of ice there:

www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_canarc_ir_100.jpg

Some features to note here --

Ice now hugs the shoreline of Alaska and northwest Canada, so the situation of some previous winters with open water in the southern Beaufort Sea has been replaced by what looks like open water leads further north. These would be temporary and caused by recent windstorms in the area.

Note that Hudson Bay is all ice-covered now, as is almost all of James Bay. Once again, this is an improvement over some recent winters when ice was not able to cover all of these subarctic areas (James Bay is the same latitude as England, but as Henry Hudson found out, hardly in the same climatic zone).

Open water in the waters between Baffin and Greenland represent a fairly normal ice distribution for this time of year. You can see a few open leads even between Devon and Ellesmere Islands. But in general terms, there is more ice, and probably thicker ice, in parts of the Canadian arctic than has been the case in some recent winters.

Severe cold now covers the eastern 2/3 of Canada, with -40 C in northern Ontario this morning. A severe snowstorm is developing for the next 48 hours across the lower Great Lakes region.

I was looking on another image at ice in the Great Lakes, this looks fairly normal now after a slow start. Superior is getting a fairly extensive ice cover, eastern Georgian Bay and Erie are mainly frozen, and Huron and Michigan have local ice in bays. Ontario rarely shows much ice, it is too deep and the water temps in Lake Ontario stay around 2-3 C most winters.

tHANKS Roger for that very comprehensive report. A late start, now looks like gathering some momentum. -40C , that must be close to extreme over there ?

C

[summer blizzard]

I'm sure that Rodger will fill us in however i believe that the record Canadian Minima is in the region of -60C>.

[carinthian]

Hi,

Arctic grip peaking in Quebec today. MS22c with severe wind chill warnings of MS35. Gusts to 50k/ph and blowing snow forecast.

C

Hi,

Also,a Arctic grip is taking hold in the Kara Sea and N Barent with very cold air mass being feed at the moment from the North Siberian high cell, which is mitigating presently towards the high Arctic cell.

C

[Duncan McAlister]

Hi,

Also,a Arctic grip is taking hold in the Kara Sea and N Barent with very cold air mass being feed at the moment from the North Siberian high cell, which is mitigating presently towards the high Arctic cell.

C

Latest arctic ice

I see the ice has now reached or just passed last year's peak, an encouraging sign, do you expect it to go further, carinthian?

[carinthian]

Latest arctic ice

I see the ice has now reached or just passed last year's peak, an encouraging sign, do you expect it to go further, carinthian?

hELLO dUNCAN,

Yes, very encouraging news. I predict 14.5 million square Km of sea ice by this time next month.

c

[frozen_north]

Yes the ice isnt doing that bad this year even though it is still way below average. It was probably helped by the lack of hurricanes pumping heat into the artic.

The difference is all too apparent.

Compare 2006

to 2007

The main differences are St Lawrence, Barents sea where there was next to nothing last year coampeared to this year and the sea of Othotsk. Hopefully the ice will survive much better than it did compared to last year where it just managed to be more than 2005's record sea ice minimum.

[Duncan McAlister]

FN - I think there is something wrong with last February's images, take a look at the 1st and the 28th, they are exactly the same!

[frozen_north]

FN - I think there is something wrong with last February's images, take a look at the 1st and the 28th, they are exactly the same!

I didnt notice that but when I look at it more. Thes the same amount of ice between the 31st of January and the 11th of May. I dont know why that has happened because the snow cover is correct.

[summer blizzard]

Any updates????

[frozen_north]

Artic ice has reached 14 million square km (about 5 days ago) which is more than 2005's peak at about 13.75 million square km. I still think the ice could grow to around 14.5 million square km as the peak is around 3 weeks away, before the melt starts.

[Optimus Prime]

Arctic is currently at an above-normal ice level;

[DAVID SNOW]

Arctic is currently at an above-normal ice level;

shhhhhhh dont tell everyone, or you will have the GW brigade after you . interesting that it is actually above norm,according to the ( its all our fault govenment sponsored scientists) this should not happen, nice to see though.

[oldsnowywizard]

the northern hemisphere is still roughly 250k sq kms down on the 1979 - 2000 mean.. but thats nothing compared to last year where at the same time,(roughly) the value was 1million sq kms lower.. with mid March being the usual max ice extent period, Is it possible that ice extent could be Average????(for that time of year)

thats a lot of ice to melt, greater albedo and all during the warmest January on record? the polar bears may very well be happy..well at least for this year..

[frozen_north]

Well the build up of ice this year has been helped by the fact the AO has stayed mostly postiive which results in the artic air staying over the artic allowing the ice to build up instead of it feeding south. This means we have a very warm winter but the artic ice does quite well. The distinct lack of North Atlantic hurricanes also meant alot less heat went into the artic in the autumn which helped ice formation especially in the barents sea with ice always close to salvbard unlike 2005-2006. But the amount of ice this year is encouraging compared to last year.

[Optimus Prime]

Anyone have any idea why there's a crack in the arctic circle?

Or is that just a satellite error?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the build up of ice this year has been helped by the fact the AO has stayed mostly postiive which results in the artic air staying over the artic allowing the ice to build up instead of it feeding south. This means we have a very warm winter but the artic ice does quite well. The distinct lack of North Atlantic hurricanes also meant alot less heat went into the artic in the autumn which helped ice formation especially in the barents sea with ice always close to salvbard unlike 2005-2006. But the amount of ice this year is encouraging compared to last year.

So a record or near record 'melt' this summer will have you concerned?

I'm now preparing to 'witness the 'melt' to see just how quickly this years ice shifts and if more inroads are going to be made into 'old ice'.

The fact the 'polynia' opened up last year means that the ice there is now weaker so will we see this feature expand or more holes open up later this year?

A fun 7 months awaits!

thats a lot of ice to melt, greater albedo and all during the warmest January on record? the polar bears may very well be happy..well at least for this year..

I think warmer oceans may well compensate for that! Everyone's looking for topside melt when, as the formation of the polynia last year highlighted, it is ablation from below that is causing the greatest 'melt' off of the ice Cap.

[frozen_north]

Anyone have any idea why there's a crack in the arctic circle?

Or is that just a satellite error?

It happens from time to time. Its just a satellite/imgaging problem.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think warmer oceans may well compensate for that! Everyone's looking for topside melt when, as the formation of the polynia last year highlighted, it is ablation from below that is causing the greatest 'melt' off of the ice Cap.

You need to update your bookmarks. Worldwide, Oceans have cooled.

Short-Term Ocean Cooling Suggests Global Warming 'Speed Bump'

"Researchers found the average temperature of the upper ocean rose by 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit from 1993 to 2003, and then fell 0.055 degrees Fahrenheit from 2003 to 2005. The recent decrease is a dip equal to about one-fifth of the heat gained by the ocean between 1955 and 2003"

( NASA, Sept 2006)

Theories on why Ocean temperature rises and falls have been addressed in on topic threads. What's relevant is 20C "global warming" can not completely explain the abalation of the Arctic ice cap last summer just like "global cooling" trend is not responsible for the recent Ocean cooling.

[Interitus]

I have to say that reading this discussion that marginally higher ice coverage than last year is some sort of refutation of GW is clutching at straws. For example the charts posted of this year vs last can be neatly explained by the AO - notice last year's ice-free Svalbard countered by a snow covered Europe, the reverse of this year.

Moreover, this ice is ephemeral - it will all melt by the end of the summer. There is now very little 'old' ice (>10 years) and of course all talk of areal coverage misses the fact that the ice has drastically reduced in thickness also.

I would recommend anyone interested may care to read the last few Jeff Masters blogs on wunderground. There are serious concerns that within 30-40 years the arctic will be essentially ice-free.

[Duncan McAlister]

There are serious concerns that within 30-40 years the arctic will be essentially ice-free.

I presume you mean in the summer, Interitus?