The 'no Storms Club' 2009

[sammie]

*waves*

Hello, still here, hiding in the corner.

[Harry]

Hi Jane Louise,

Yeah I am pretty much in the same boat as you. Have had no direct hits from thunderstorms yet this year, though did have v close by storms with illuminations and one rogue postive bolt (producing the only thunder I have heard in 2009 so far, and that was April). What is more frustrating, is that I live in the South East, and on at least 3 days this year, 30 miles down the road has been CLOBBERED by really quite torrential thunderstorms, while each and everyone has only brushed me!

Monday was by far the biggest dissapointment - humid all day, gorgeous towering Cbs, vicious black skies following from the South for most of the afternoon - with not ONE single rumble or flash! Yet literally less than 10 miles away in pretty much every direction of the compass, either/or both was observed.

I think 2009 thus far has been an atrocious year for storms for many areas including mine. People constantly talk of the fact that 'the seas are cold' and the rest of it - for as long as I can remember May has always without fail, produced at LEAST one, often more, decent thunderstorms! Last May for example, we had that great MCS (May 28th) which came up from France in the evening/overnight period which produced frequent, at times spectacular lightning. During both my Year 11 and Year 13 exams (remember these as both examples were exam weeks) I was up at NIGHT watching great lightning displays, as well as during one exam the thunder was reverberating around the Sports Hall!

This year so far has been an immense disappointment - lets just hope June is far more electric!

EDIT - WHATS THIS? Juding by both the CAPE and Storm Risk Map on GFS, looks like London, and along the M4 corridor could be the breeding ground for a few storms tomorrow - bearing in mind I am off work tomorrow (therefore not in London) to say I am p'd off is a rather excessive understatement!!!

Edited May 27, 2009 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

*waves*

Hello, still here, hiding in the corner.

Hi sammie, seems we are all in the same boat as you

[sammie]

Hi sammie, seems we are all in the same boat as you

Great! Means I'm not alone this year!

[maidstone weather]

EDIT - WHATS THIS? Juding by both the CAPE and Storm Risk Map on GFS, looks like London, and along the M4 corridor could be the breeding ground for a few storms tomorrow - bearing in mind I am off work tomorrow (therefore not in London) to say I am p'd off is a rather excessive understatement!!!

I wholly agree with you Harry, but this has been a trend of recent years. Average thunder days per year for Kent is 14 or more - last year i had 4 (only 2 were direct overhead storms) so I am pretty confident in saying things are changing from normal, for the worst it would seem

I remember waking up at 2am on Friday 8th June 2007 and watching some storms move up from France - just 7 hours before my French exam!

Looks like Friday could see localised orographic storms on the westward sides of mountains, say NW Wales, Cumbria, SW Scotland and NW Highlands?

The best storm I have ever witnessed has to be 6th August last year, that was a cracker. Wouldn't mind one of them again B)

Edited May 27, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Jane Louise]

It seems May has been a funny month, I always count on May to give me a wild storm (Gusty hailstorm with erratic lightning) but just doesn't seem to be getting itself together. Funnily enough this is kinda the same in the US where May is the most tornado active in the year but there they haven't been getting nowhere near as many tornadoes as one would expect.

Anyway back to home ground, this week looks decent for western parts of the Uk (SW and Wales) but nothing convincing atm that there is gonna be big storm outbreak. I suppose all we can do is enjoy the increasing warmth and sunshine forecast for the week.

Hi weather09,

I agree with you regarding the month of May! it always was a good month for storms, but not anymore B) I myself believe this could all be to do with climate change,but I know there are many who may disagree about this. Also our Sun has been acting quiet for a while now.I also feel that this may have something to do with it to.

I really do hope again for a storm maybe next week if it dosen't decide to change directions like it did on Monday grrrrrr.I agree let's all enjoy the sunshine for now!but I would oh so love a storm at the end of a lovely hot day.

Hi Harry,

I am really suprised on the lack of storms that all of you in the SE aren't gettting this year! If I remember a few years back,the SE used to get many storms over the summer!I used to sit there enviously watching the radar and waving my fist at the SE because you always had the most frequent storms lol

Monday was a terrible day! it was so frustrating to see the storms move further East. I could see the tension and frustration mounting up in the storm discussion forum,I was peed off with it too lol

Awww, I have not checked the cape charts yet for tommorow. Hey! good luck for tommorow if it does come about.Again I shall be watching the radars and just hoping and praying one pops up here.(that'll be the day lol)

[Jane Louise]

I have just checked the charts for tommorow and yes!! some of us could be in for a storm But will it happen? I guess not lol. Estofex has nothing for us though.

[dogs32]

I WILLL HAVE TO KEEP MY EYE OUT FOR THIS...SOUNDS INTERESTING B)

[Harry]

Estofex and MetO not going with storms tomororw - in fact the entire area under the NW Storm Risk and CAPE runs isnt even forecast for light showers by the MetO.

Will make for interesting watching tomorrow!

Any ideas when the next plume set up might appear?

Yeah Jane, I'm not one to discuss climate change, too many factors to consider, but over the last 10-15 years, storms, and snow for that matter, just don't seem to be that common. I've said this before, but in the summer when I was a kid, it was almost guaranteed there would be periods of really warm/hot weather to be finished with the inevitable breakdown of thunderstorms.

I miss those days, and I know the weather is not the same as it once was, probably due to changing weather patterns.

I agree, storm activity is decreasing, and IMO Climate Change is without question in full swing. 10 years ago, I'd get every year strings of storms. Nowadays...???

However, I am of the opinion that the fewer storms we do get (can't speak for other parts of the country on this) are more intense and severe than 10 years ago (not exclusively of course but generally). 28th May and 6th Aug last year were two very intense thunderstorms nights, with lightning at various stages flashing every 2-3 seconds. In 2007, fewer storms, but again two which ring in my mind - one a severe, mother ship storm which hung over London and produced frequent and spectacular lightning, while the other was a superb MCS which engulfed all of Kent and produced some of the most amazing lightning I have seen in the UK. 2006, while being one of the hottest summers I have ever experienced in the UK, for the temperatures (28C-36C across continous three week period) produced very little thundery activity considering.

Be it excess CO2 and methane, lack of recent solar activity, aliens - the climate is changing. It is time we woke up to that fact, told the MetO computers that fact, and all moved to Oklahoma

Edited May 27, 2009 by Harry

[StormChaser]

Ive seen 3 flashes of lightning early this year. no thunder. I am dying to have a big electricle storm like the one we had last year that was not forcasted.

That storm was amazing green lightning was seen and the thunder just kept on rumbling it was a mini supercell and a half biggest one, ive chased in a while.

[Phil UK]

I was rather sad Phil,but I'm okay now lol. We still have the rest of the summer to go Ithink it's great fun following the radars and just hoping,hoping that a storm pops my way lol and then if it dosen't ,I think Oh well!

(although I'm gutted really lol )

It can be exhausting sometimes , really early mornings and very late nights,but it's well worth it espicially if a storm does occur.

I too shall be remaining in here for a long time yet, due to the lack of storms so far ( sob)

Hi Jane Louise.

Saturday/Sunday is looking ok for heavy showers and (maybe!!) storms and further west this time.

This set up of late looks like the traditional, "Three fine days and a thunderstorm". But not exclusively so for Kent. (Poor Coast and Harry! You should have had about 15 by now!!)

BUT Harry... Exactly one year ago today!!!

Enjoy.

Edited May 28, 2009 by Phil UK

[dave48]

The whole area of thunderstorm trends is something of great interest to me. I started a thread a while back asking about people's opinions on thunderstorm decline in the United Kingdom and the results from that and other study have been interesting but somewhat inconclusive.

It seems that on the whole there has been something of a decline, over the past two decades. However, a variety of factors need to be noted with regard to this. The level of decline and the reasons for it does need more research, so does the whole area, so it remains a fairly sweeping and general statement to say that there has been a decline. However, it does also seem apparant the decline has been regional with some areas affected worse than others.

Another factor to note is that a lot of people claim that the decline has been very recent, the change over the last 10 years, say, has, however, not been significant.

I think there are a variety of factors that could be at play. First, yes, there probably has been something of a decline and this may be more notable in particular regions. However the decline probably isn't as large as some people make out.

It should be mentioned that there is perhaps a significant sociological and psychological element in play here. It is in the nature of human beings to remember things that are of importance to them and cause them, for want of a better word, to be happy, in a way that is somewhat difference from the truth. Indeed there is potential here for people to not only being hyping up fond memories but also to be selecting between memories and awarding them a different parity. What am suggesting is that some people may simply be looking at the situation in a slightly irrationale way. However, coming from a social sciences background, it is probably in my nature to look for problems associated with society, rather than science!

Climatology is uncertain about many things, just like meteorology and all the blame here is certainly not on peoples inaccurate records. There is clear evidence of a decrease in the frequency of thunderstorms in the United Kingdom. It is something, I want to look at more and my research has been limited. I hope to have the oppurtunity to do some proper study next year and then further research in a few years time. On a personal note, I hope to move closer towards climatology if I go ahead with postgraduate studies.

With regards to the whole climate change point, indeed research does point to rainfall events increasing in intensity but again there is a fairly limited and inconclusive view towards how thunderstorms and their frequency will change.

I would point members towards the posts of the member Thundery wintery showers in the thread I started on this some time back, it is in this section I think, just go down the pages. Some good points are made and a good book or two are mentioned I think, well worth a read if you are interested.

In conclusion, there has been something of a decline, about a third over the mentioned period, but we must take into account ourselves and how we quantify our storm memories and also, the last few years have been fairly tame for some regions anyway so that probably puts a downer on things, the south east is below it's average for example. I might add that these are my own views and I fully appreciate the views of others and respect the fact some of you have seen a lot more storms in your time than I have!

Edited May 28, 2009 by dave48

[Phil UK]

Good morning Dave48.

I'll admit that the last inland thunderstorm I saw overnight was in late July 1994. Being in Solihull, West Midlands, there is that certain question as regarding the global climate issue which I don't buy into at all.

I'm personally sick to death now of hearing that we are all doooooooooommmed because of global warming. Erm, yeah, right!!

But your post does make a lot of sense as regarding the psycological element. I guess in a sense, the Summers we get, we are expected the storms, say June, july, August. I remember 1982, big storms and floods where I live in Solihull. (1st June 1982) Local rag said... "Flaming June" (Because of all the lightning strikes that caused fires to rooftops!)

Still. 11th or 12th August 2003. The day after the highest temp ever recorded. Lightning hit my friends Dads burglar alarm system box outside his house and knocked out his electrical system. Just down the road from me as well. Wondered what the ear drum piercing crack of thunder was all about!

Jane, looking at the surface pressure charts for next week and with high temps expected over the weekend... You may be lucky this time.

Phil.

[Jane Louise]

Hi Jane Louise.

Saturday/Sunday is looking ok for heavy showers and (maybe!!) storms and further west this time.

This set up of late looks like the traditional, "Three fine days and a thunderstorm". But not exclusively so for Kent. (Poor Coast and Harry! You should have had about 15 by now!!)

BUT Harry... Exactly one year ago today!!!

Enjoy.

Hi Phil,

I have looked at the storm risk and charts for this weekend and it's not looking to bad! Met Office aren't having any of it though

Who knows! and I always say this, a storm may come out of the blue when we are least expecting it.( I hope so anyway lol)

The whole area of thunderstorm trends is something of great interest to me. I started a thread a while back asking about people's opinions on thunderstorm decline in the United Kingdom and the results from that and other study have been interesting but somewhat inconclusive.

It seems that on the whole there has been something of a decline, over the past two decades. However, a variety of factors need to be noted with regard to this. The level of decline and the reasons for it does need more research, so does the whole area, so it remains a fairly sweeping and general statement to say that there has been a decline. However, it does also seem apparant the decline has been regional with some areas affected worse than others.

Another factor to note is that a lot of people claim that the decline has been very recent, the change over the last 10 years, say, has, however, not been significant.

I think there are a variety of factors that could be at play. First, yes, there probably has been something of a decline and this may be more notable in particular regions. However the decline probably isn't as large as some people make out.

It should be mentioned that there is perhaps a significant sociological and psychological element in play here. It is in the nature of human beings to remember things that are of importance to them and cause them, for want of a better word, to be happy, in a way that is somewhat difference from the truth. Indeed there is potential here for people to not only being hyping up fond memories but also to be selecting between memories and awarding them a different parity. What am suggesting is that some people may simply be looking at the situation in a slightly irrationale way. However, coming from a social sciences background, it is probably in my nature to look for problems associated with society, rather than science!

Climatology is uncertain about many things, just like meteorology and all the blame here is certainly not on peoples inaccurate records. There is clear evidence of a decrease in the frequency of thunderstorms in the United Kingdom. It is something, I want to look at more and my research has been limited. I hope to have the oppurtunity to do some proper study next year and then further research in a few years time. On a personal note, I hope to move closer towards climatology if I go ahead with postgraduate studies.

With regards to the whole climate change point, indeed research does point to rainfall events increasing in intensity but again there is a fairly limited and inconclusive view towards how thunderstorms and their frequency will change.

I would point members towards the posts of the member Thundery wintery showers in the thread I started on this some time back, it is in this section I think, just go down the pages. Some good points are made and a good book or two are mentioned I think, well worth a read if you are interested.

In conclusion, there has been something of a decline, about a third over the mentioned period, but we must take into account ourselves and how we quantify our storm memories and also, the last few years have been fairly tame for some regions anyway so that probably puts a downer on things, the south east is below it's average for example. I might add that these are my own views and I fully appreciate the views of others and respect the fact some of you have seen a lot more storms in your time than I have!

Thanks Dave,

An interesting read. I will pop along and look at the other thread

[Coast]

Intersting reading here concerning thunderstorm activity increases in the USA in the 21st Centruy, attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapour within the planetary boundary layer:

http://ukpmc.ac.uk

In this study, we are concerned with the possibility of changes in severe thunderstorm frequency in response to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced enhancement of global radiative forcing

[maidstone weather]

Cheers Coast, that sounds interesting. I might move there then!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Estofex and MetO not going with storms tomororw - in fact the entire area under the NW Storm Risk and CAPE runs isnt even forecast for light showers by the MetO.

Will make for interesting watching tomorrow!

Any ideas when the next plume set up might appear?

I agree, storm activity is decreasing, and IMO Climate Change is without question in full swing. 10 years ago, I'd get every year strings of storms. Nowadays...???

However, I am of the opinion that the fewer storms we do get (can't speak for other parts of the country on this) are more intense and severe than 10 years ago (not exclusively of course but generally). 28th May and 6th Aug last year were two very intense thunderstorms nights, with lightning at various stages flashing every 2-3 seconds. In 2007, fewer storms, but again two which ring in my mind - one a severe, mother ship storm which hung over London and produced frequent and spectacular lightning, while the other was a superb MCS which engulfed all of Kent and produced some of the most amazing lightning I have seen in the UK. 2006, while being one of the hottest summers I have ever experienced in the UK, for the temperatures (28C-36C across continous three week period) produced very little thundery activity considering.

Be it excess CO2 and methane, lack of recent solar activity, aliens - the climate is changing. It is time we woke up to that fact, told the MetO computers that fact, and all moved to Oklahoma

What storm was that?

I encountered a Supercell storm with a dramatic shelf cloud, pitch early evening darkness, continuous lightning, large hail (and wind damage in my garden) in July 2007, and nearby areas even saw a weak tornado with golf ball sized hail - but if you are referring to a mothership storm as in a supercell then I wasn't aware that there had been one in London at any time that year?

I don't, personally, think that Climate Change has anything to do with any (perceived) lack of storms. I have to say I haven't noticed anything different in this respect- and there is no reason why the sort of activity you mention could still occur at any time. It is like attributing any weather event (or lack of it) to climate change, which happens incessantly these days unfortunately.

But, (thank goodness ) that is not a topic for here anyway

Edited May 28, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Jane Louise]

Does anybody know when the next lot of storms are due ? I was hoping for a thundery breakdown after this weekend! but I can't see anything. :winky:

[Phil UK]

Hi Jane Louise.

I think maybe perhaps next Tuesday/Wednesday onwards with a slow moving LP heading up from the south west. Possibly a frontal trough ahead of it. More details nearer the time but timing is the key.

Phil.

[Jane Louise]

Hi Jane Louise.

I think maybe perhaps next Tuesday/Wednesday onwards with a slow moving LP heading up from the south west. Possibly a frontal trough ahead of it. More details nearer the time but timing is the key.

Phil.

Hiya Phil,

Thanks, I hope it dosen't change by then lol . Fingers crossed again :winky:

[stormchaser1]

The North East is still in the No storm club {well i am anyway} Grrrrrrr

[Phil UK]

Hi Nigel.

Tried to find a YouTube storm for Tyne and Wear.

All I got was frickin' trains!!

Jane Louise, there are worse off than us after all.

Add to the irony of two north east football clubs relegated from the Premiership. Come back to the Midlands Nige!!

Phil.

[Harry]

What storm was that?

I encountered a Supercell storm with a dramatic shelf cloud, pitch early evening darkness, continuous lightning, large hail (and wind damage in my garden) in July 2007, and nearby areas even saw a weak tornado with golf ball sized hail - but if you are referring to a mothership storm as in a supercell then I wasn't aware that there had been one in London at any time that year?

I don't, personally, think that Climate Change has anything to do with any (perceived) lack of storms. I have to say I haven't noticed anything different in this respect- and there is no reason why the sort of activity you mention could still occur at any time. It is like attributing any weather event (or lack of it) to climate change, which happens incessantly these days unfortunately.

But, (thank goodness ) that is not a topic for here anyway

I cant actually remember the date which is annoying though what you describe definitely sounds like the storm I saw! Because of the time of day, it was hard to tell whether supercellular features were present or not - what I did see however, was a huge Cb with well formed, dense anvil (all black as the sun was behind it) with frequent lightning at both low, mid and high levels of the storm.

I describe it as a mothership because it resembled the 'mother ship' in the film Independence Day

[maidstone weather]

I cant actually remember the date which is annoying though what you describe definitely sounds like the storm I saw! Because of the time of day, it was hard to tell whether supercellular features were present or not - what I did see however, was a huge Cb with well formed, dense anvil (all black as the sun was behind it) with frequent lightning at both low, mid and high levels of the storm.

I describe it as a mothership because it resembled the 'mother ship' in the film Independence Day

Sunday 15th July 2007, during the evening between 8-10pm?

I could see bright orange flashes continuously, and occasional forks from a massive cell over east Kent. Heard no thunder here, but the lightning display from this distance was amazing. I managed to capture it on film (well some if it) but because it was filmed at 9:45pm it is quite difficult to make out certain features. The orange blobs are streetlights, but you can see some orange fork lightning at times.

The vid may be a little boring as the activity was dying by then but still some impressive lightning from all parts of the anvil :o

[stormchaser1]

Hi Nigel.

Tried to find a YouTube storm for Tyne and Wear.

All I got was frickin' trains!!

Jane Louise, there are worse off than us after all.

Add to the irony of two north east football clubs relegated from the Premiership. Come back to the Midlands Nige!! :o

Phil.

Afternoon Phil

LoL at you post regarding the North East storms lol,

Regarding coming back to the Midlands , unfortunately you have no chance, I lived there for around 48year, {done it seen it and worn the T shirt} I have now settles here in the North East, its a wonderful part of the country, I love the The place, the scenery, is out of this world, 10 min drive either side of me you are in a complete different world, to the East you have the northumberland coast line, and to the west you have some of the best scenery i have scene for many a year, My wife is Toon through and through, she has tried to convert me to become a Toon {to no avail i may say} i still follow my beloved Baggies, who i have followed for all of my life, i have attended a few games since moving up here, but i cannot afford to go to every home game at west brom , although i would love too, for me to go to a match now it woruld cost me around £150 {which is alot of money these days} thats included the match , bed and breakfast at the Moat house, fuel there and back , and a few bevvies,

Regarding the storms , i would love the North East to see more storms , unfortunately that wont happen, i will have to start chasing again, which i am already set up for ,

The last decent storm we had was back in 2005 i think it was, when we had a huge cell which covered virtually the whole North East, torrential rain ,that bad, we had to stop on the A1 has we couldnt see in front of us, when i eventually got home, everyone on our street was stood at there front door, watching the lightning, it was magnificent, fork lightning everywhere, one of the best storms i have witnessed for a long time, since then , virtually nowt,

nigel