East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 19

[Roadrunner]

You really are an old Charmer Diane

Careful your Light Easterly breeze does not blow sand in your eyes

That's the bit between "Northerly" and "Southerly", Diane.

[rmc1987]

This guy was on about disruptive snow for London and South East which I duly said wouldn't happen. Currently pouring with rain and his forecast has changed in terms of 'snow' for us, so he's realised!

Joe B from AccuWeather has just updated his European blog. Let's see if his forecast materialises.

Here is part of his write up:

COLD AIR STILL 12-24 HOURS AWAY FROM COMPLEX STORM

The powerful storm located on the southwest coast of England still does not have enough cold air to work with as the arctic air is still pushing south. However, with time, this very complex situation should turn cold enough so rain does turn to snow even in the lower elevations and mainly between London and Manchester. It is tricky, but we have to get that air to cool over the north sea first.

I expect the rain to change to snow from north to south as this storm, which is just in its early stages, matures.

There is no change on what is about to be a major attack of cold the first 10 days of the new year for much of Europe NORTH of 40 north. For folks in the southeast, (Greece, for instance, where there are lovers of winter) keep in mind that if you are going to share in the cold, it's later. This winter idea from me is the core of the cold is north of you.

But this storm is a perfect example of what I was talking about for this winter for the northwest! You see what is going on. The ebb and flow of the pattern has storms GOING SOUTH of England not just roaring by to the north. Why? The negative NAO, which was an idea I advanced here long before this winter started. And the heavy rains of November... remember the post talking about why that meant the trough was coming FOR THE WINTER. It's the same thing here in the states, we had the wet October. If it was just warm and dry, that is another signal.

[Lowestoft]

Just back from the beach, my husband and all the other blokey blokes escaping from their families over the holidays are still down there fishing and drinking large quantities of scotch. Dark here now.

[yamkin]

This guy was on about disruptive snow for London and South East which I duly said wouldn't happen. Currently pouring with rain and his forecast has changed in terms of 'snow' for us, so he's realised!

Joe B never said it would snow today in our neck of the woods

[kold weather]

news 24 just now showed that we in the south east would only get rain and said that the intensity of the snow/rain was dying out and that new years eve would be dry and cold for most

Thats what was most likely in that as the cold air dug down the front loses alot of it strength, so unless something unexpected happens that will be the case for the SE. I still suspect in the northern part of the region things vould briefly become more interesting.

[Coast]

Happy New Year?

and here we go, just in time for the great return to work.....

[tomavenell]

So when is our best chance for snow in the coming week? any significant snowfall on the way?

Sorry for asking, but im inexperienced at model watching

Thanks in advance

[Kiwi]

So when is our best chance for snow in the coming week? any significant snowfall on the way?

Sorry for asking, but im inexperienced at model watching

Thanks in advance

A week today and you'll be still trying to dig yourself out from the Monday snows if the 12z GFS comes off!

[Ruislipredbee]

So when is our best chance for snow in the coming week? any significant snowfall on the way?

Sorry for asking, but im inexperienced at model watching

Thanks in advance

Thursday night a little

Friday looks good for the se

Then loads on monday!

[yamkin]

So when is our best chance for snow in the coming week? any significant snowfall on the way?

Sorry for asking, but im inexperienced at model watching

Thanks in advance

According to GFS 12Z, we may have some snow by the end of this week.

Check out this link

[Country Boy]

OK ALL: Lets put this storm behind us because we are not going to get anything out of this but rain, at leased it will wash the salt of the roads and cars: Its not until later in the week and the week-end that we see the north easterlies bite in. So its the next storm that is more positive for snow. Some biting cold winds will then send temps. down for our region , and this is not good news for people returning to work next week..Sit back for now watch the rain..then get ready for an icy start to the new year..

[Ruislipredbee]

Thursday night a little

Friday looks good for the se

Then loads on monday!

Oh yeah Don`t forget the 10 day artic blast from friday which is ripe for more snow!

[Snowangel-MK]

Nothing but wet icy rain here all afternoon, hoping it might turn to sleet or snow during the night as Met O. still have a warning out for MK.

Am I right in thinking Monday has a significant snow chance for my region ? (I'm not very good with the charts yet !)

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

UKMO 12z suggests that we might still get something out of this late Thurs/Fri with the ppn perhaps pepping up abit before it moves way- and then with the NE'erly following then a good chance of snow showers on Friday itself. Ppn charts clearly show (snow) showers over the region, especially Kent, Sussex and perhaps Essex for Friday

[snowbob]

Happy New Year?

W

and here we go, just in time for the great return to work.....

would be amazing if that came off but a week away we all know that will change. Can't wait though a glimmer of hope

[yamkin]

UKMO 12z suggests that we might still get something out of this late Thurs/Fri with the ppn perhaps pepping up abit before it moves way- and then with the NE'erly following then a good chance of snow showers on Friday itself. Ppn charts clearly show (snow) showers over the region, especially Kent, Sussex and perhaps Essex for Friday

GFS 12Z also shows snow for the SE this Thurs/Fri. See link:

Also, GFS 12Z is going for snow in the SE next week.

[ukmoose]

The low that was so troublesome to predict has had the last laugh and has succeeded in doing what most of us hoped it wouldn't.

Nothing but rain for the whole of this region as it edged further north than most expected and has stalled a little it seems preventing the colder air from digging south east. Could well rain for the next 24 hours though not necessarily very heavy at any stage. At least it's cold rain and not the warm mush we usually get.

The charts for the weekend, let alone Monday, whilst looking good, are a long, long way off and should not be taken for granted. This current low has just proved how difficult it is for us to get sustained spells of cold even when things look extremely favourable.

A disappointing last 24 hours for cold lovers I would say, though not totally unexpected. Anything could happen over the next few days but the spells of heavy snow that were a possibility a day or so ago have receded, at least for the time being.

Patience required as there is still a chance for something better in a few days time.

[Derp Patrol]

My bet is that on Thursday/Friday most of this region has a good chance of snow as the GFS and UKMO 12z both show this, and we are under cold uppers by then. Next Monday looks a good bet for some heavy snow, but it's too far off to tell yet.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The low that was so troublesome to predict has had the last laugh and has succeeded in doing what most of us hoped it wouldn't.

Nothing but rain for the whole of this region as it edged further north than most expected and has stalled a little it seems preventing the colder air from digging south east. Could well rain for the next 24 hours though not necessarily very heavy at any stage. At least it's cold rain and not the warm mush we usually get.

The charts for the weekend, let alone Monday, whilst looking good, are a long, long way off and should not be taken for granted. This current low has just proved how difficult it is for us to get sustained spells of cold even when things look extremely favourable.

A disappointing last 24 hours for cold lovers I would say, though not totally unexpected. Anything could happen over the next few days but the spells of heavy snow that were a possibility a day or so ago have receded, at least for the time being.

Patience required as there is still a chance for something better in a few days time.

The low has done/is doing and I think will do exactly what is was always predicted to do. Nowhere in this region was predicted any snow (apart from a little sleetiness in the north of the region)before late this week from this system - irrespective of recent model oscillation around minor mesoscale details. As much I am hardly enthralled about the rain, I am certainly not disappointed about the current 24hrs or so as there was nothing but rain to expect anyway. Even in your locale further north than me, little if anything more was suggested from the beginning.

As for sustained spells, on a less IMBY basis - the spell this December (and counting) has been quite significant. On a totally IMBY basis I too have been rather disappointed in terms of actual snowfall so far, but taking even a larger regional picture there have been areas, very close by in fact, that have seen very large snowfalls which stayed for up to a week until just before xmas.

But as far as heavy snow expectations for the main part of this week - there never were any.

Edited December 29, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[danm]

The low has done/is doing and I think will do exactly what is was always predicted to do. Nowhere in this region was predicted any snow (apart from a little sleetiness in the north of the region)before late this week from this system - irrespective of recent model oscillation around minor mesoscale details. As much I am hardly enthralled about the rain, I am certainly not disappointed about the current 24hrs or so as there was nothing but rain to expect anyway. Even in your locale further north than me, little if anything more was suggested from the beginning.

As for sustained spells, on a less IMBY basis - the spell this December (and counting) has been quite significant. On a totally IMBY basis I too have been rather disappointed in terms of actual snowfall so far, but taking even a larger regional picture there have been areas, very close by in fact, that have seen very large snowfalls which stayed for up to a week until just before xmas.

But as far as heavy snow expectations for the main part of this week - there never were any.

100% agree. I said this yesterday, that for our region don't expect anything but rain. It was always marginal even for those in the midlands and Wales, let alone for us. Our best bet looks to be thursday night to saturday, and then POSSIBLY on monday if that projected low from the SW takes a favourable path. The next 3 days were always going to be a write-off

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

100% agree. I said this yesterday, that for our region don't expect anything but rain. It was always marginal even for those in the midlands and Wales, let alone for us. Our best bet looks to be thursday night to saturday, and then POSSIBLY on monday if that projected low from the SW takes a favourable path. The next 3 days were always going to be a write-off

Yes - I am just looking at things from late Thurs onwards too - and especially Friday

[Derp Patrol]

What time does the ECM 12Z usually come out? I am optomistic about getting some snow on Thursday/Friday

[Button Up]

ECM 12Z should start rolling out at 18:00

[clark3r]

What time does the ECM 12Z usually come out? I am optomistic about getting some snow on Thursday/Friday

i was optomistic! but my hopes of snow for thursday/fri are decreasing all the time at present the fax chart is still giving me hope! hoping for the some upgrades by this time tommorow!

[john mac]

Temps 2.7c beginning to fall Dewpoint 2c and falling which is good news