Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 14

[LomondSnowstorm]

After last night's shower from the north, I wouldn't bet against at least some remnants of your heavy duty showers making it all the way south to the central belt by late afternoon/early evening.

Indeed, looking at the charts I think there is every chance of even this far west catching some snow in the next 48-96 hours as the low sinks south and the pressure falls slack. Did we not get unexpected snow in slack flows earlier in this cold spell??

All the time! I don't think we can avoid random snow events for more than about 3 days at a time - 16 out of the last 18 days here have had snow falling! And I really hope you see quite a few showers, as that means all of east central will be taking a pasting!

[NorthernRab]

After last night's shower from the north, I wouldn't bet against at least some remnants of your heavy duty showers making it all the way south to the central belt by late afternoon/early evening.

Indeed, looking at the charts I think there is every chance of even this far west catching some snow in the next 48-96 hours as the low sinks south and the pressure falls slack. Did we not get unexpected snow in slack flows earlier in this cold spell??

Very true there, bands of snow moving very slowly through the slack flow cannot be ruled out, that coupled with very low temperatures is going to make this the winter of 2009/10 without a doubt

[Hairy Celt]

Snowing lettuces here on the beach...

[Duncan McAlister]

About another 1-2 inch last night on top of the icy covering we already had. And it's not going anywhere fast - lying snow making it colder this morning! Roads are pretty hellish in my street, a guy couldn't drive up the hill to his cul-de-sac and had to leave his car at the bottom. He tried to get up there for about 10 minutes

My dad is driving down to S'hampton, has to be there by tomorrow evening, I don't envy him

[Guest]

Would be possibilities there CMD. Just a few degrees towards North from NE though and we'd still miss them (from an Embra perspectivee) ... even a NE flow often sees activity just playing with East Lothian/Berwickshire. Just a smidgeon East of NE and its game on. Also I guess there'd be more chance of any activity making it right through to you

After the two snow showers from Dundee with love last week, anything is possible. Last night's light snow started life as a wee shower in the NW Highlands!! The only direction we've not really had snow from here is my "banker" direction of WNW. Looks like it is me who is wrong about that, as well as everything else

Look at this by-tor, from NW Extra:

[Polar Gael]

Fair enough, still a bit unsure if the band will make it here over the highlands.

edit: Bonspiel on Lake of Menteith this weekend!!!!

It's looking hopeful at long, long last!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/tayside_and_central/8439865.stm

Day 20 of the "Big Freeze". More snow overnight in Glasgow (about another inch), sheet ice everywhere and a low of -4.6C this morning about half an hour ago - and no let up in sight according to this morning's model output.

What is notable this morning is the increase in coverage on the media as folk return to work and the cold turns even more severe. Hopefully we won't see anymore accidents like last night's train crash and the local authorities/Scottish Govt will get their act together re salt, roadclearing and looking after the old folk.

Stay safe everyone.

[Guest]

All the time! I don't think we can avoid random snow events for more than about 3 days at a time - 16 out of the last 18 days here have had snow falling! And I really hope you see quite a few showers, as that means all of east central will be taking a pasting!

I would settle for that. A foot here and 4 feet with you?? Seems fair!

[JoeShmoe]

What times are the winds expected to back more easterly? This evening?

That ECM for here would be manna from heaven :lol:

[JRMcLeod]

Snowing lettuces here on the beach...

:lol: :lol:

[penicuikblizz]

By evening though, that is exactly what the flow does

Before that, we just have to hope that some of those showers track their way down the coast and southeast towards us.

Is there enough easterly in the wind to feed the the showers inland?

[Hiya]

A question for native Dundonians: when was the last time you saw chunks of ice floating down the Tay at Dundee?

[Sunny Leith]

I'd put that one in the bank now CMD !

Basically any ENE that works for LS, works for me ... but since you added the Tay/Clyde streamer to your repetoire you're spoilt for choice these days

After the two snow showers from Dundee with love last week, anything is possible. Last night's light snow started life as a wee shower in the NW Highlands!! The only direction we've not really had snow from here is my "banker" direction of WNW. Looks like it is me who is wrong about that, as well as everything else

Look at this by-tor, from NW Extra:

[LomondSnowstorm]

What times are the winds expected to back more easterly? This evening?

That ECM for here would be manna from heaven

I think by about 9 it will have turned towards an ENEsterly, though perhaps staying more northerly at the surface.

[Duncan McAlister]

Temperature dropped to -8.4C at Prestwick Airport from -6.2 at 0900! Scary

[Sunny Leith]

Agree with LS in this one ... its going to be down to radar/skywatching later on in the day. Have you not got enough snow in Penicuik anyway

Is there enough easterly in the wind to feed the the showers inland?

[Snooz]

Aberdeenshire council closed ALL schools in the county today, don't think I've ever seen a council wide closure decision before?

We had a deer in our garden earlier, unfortunately dog barked and scared her off before I could get a picture, am totally running out of superlatives for the view & scenes now.

it's calmed down with us here now, just catching some light flurries, it seems You Invernesians are getting a shottie now OMG! really is the only phrase at times..

LS, thanks for your updates, charts, forecasts as always

Everyone take care, remember to help the less able members of your community, where you can

[JoeShmoe]

Latest NAE looks better for Embra from 18pm onwards

[Zenarcher]

Blizzard like conditions here heavy snow and wind at 30mph

[Sunny Leith]

Looking good...

..one of these days (and it might be soon) we'll hold onto east-coast convection for more than 24 hours ... if and when we do, it'll be time to hunker down and dig out...

I think by about 9 it will have turned towards an ENEsterly, though perhaps staying more northerly at the surface.

Edited January 5, 2010 by by-tor

[Methuselah]

Slizzle and thaw again!!!

[blitzen]

So frustrating watching it all go around the Fife snow dome! Not that hopeful for later as I still think that there will be too much of a northerly element involved. Hope I'm wrong though!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking good...

..one of these days (and it might be soon) we'll hold onto east-coast convection for more than 24 hours ... id and when we do, it'll be time to hunker down and dig out...

Very much so. With the medium term forecast for the block to slide back north, we could easily see that soon. That ECM chart I posted was actually one of the milder members for De Bilt in the Netherlands, which is odd as easterly is the coldest direction for the Dutch! The weekend looks perhaps to be a bit quieter though showers should continue on the east coast

Then, if the ECM is to be believed, the real fun begins:

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100105/00/ecm500.168.png

ENE anyone?

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100105/00/ecm500.192.png

Still going 24 hours later

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100105/00/ecm500.216.png

All the way out to +240 with no sign of an end

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100105/00/ecm500.240.png

Yes, it is FI but this does appear to be a fairly plausible evolution! Even a watered down version of this woulf be pretty stunning.

No sign of a let up of any sort.

LS

[su rui ke]

A question for native Dundonians: when was the last time you saw chunks of ice floating down the Tay at Dundee?

Definitely in January 1982. There might have been some in December 1995 - I saw a lot of ice on the Tay at Perth then - but I'm not sure. You're not saying you saw some today are you?!

[penicuikblizz]

Agree with LS in this one ... its going to be down to radar/skywatching later on in the day. Have you not got enough snow in Penicuik anyway

About 10 inches on top of my garage there has been no thaw since before xmas so its a top up each time it snows! I just want to see mega snow lol

Latest NAE looks better for Embra from 18pm onwards

http://forum.netweat...8entry1701198

Could be a streamer situation looking at that 2nd chart lol

[Sunny Leith]

If all those charts played out then east-central Scotland would be in big trouble.

In reality I'll happily accept a compromise of a few more inches of some pristine easterly snow - anything else from those charts is getting potentially very silly indeed !

Very much so. With the medium term forecast for the block to slide back north, we could easily see that soon. That ECM chart I posted was actually one of the milder members for De Bilt in the Netherlands, which is odd as easterly is the coldest direction for the Dutch! The weekend looks perhaps to be a bit quieter though showers should continue on the east coast

Then, if the ECM is to be believed, the real fun begins:

http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.168.png

ENE anyone?

http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.192.png

Still going 24 hours later

http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.216.png

All the way out to +240 with no sign of an end

http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.240.png

Yes, it is FI but this does appear to be a fairly plausible evolution! Even a watered down version of this woulf be pretty stunning.

No sign of a let up of any sort.

LS

Edited January 5, 2010 by by-tor