London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[Suttonian]

No doubt people are going to be confused again with whats going on-

Winds are N'easterly this morning- turning lighter Easterly later-

Whilst we have a thaw going on the temp & critically the WBPT & Dewpoint should remain at or just below zero-

What that means is an assortment of rain sleet & snow showers-

Lowland areas will see rain & sleet & snow in heavier showers -

Higher elevations & areas with extensive snowcover will see sleet & snow showers- missing the rain-

It wont stop the slow thaw though-- even the tops of the hills in kent will gradually get above freezing- but the process will be slower-

Steve

Thanks for all your time and effort into your postings about this cold snap Steve, I enjoy reading them and learning from your skills... much appreciated!

[Essex Chelle]

Snowing in Basildon, 50p sized flakes again!!!

[SteveCoops]

Boo looks like Metcheck have been spot on - they said sleet for here forecast 2 days ago

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Wintry flurries on and off this morning. No further accumulations to the heavy and persistent snow of Fri night and yesterday and a very slight thaw of the snow as temps are just that bit higher than previous days, following continuous frost since late Weds.

Edit - light snow started falling again

Edited January 10, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Me & angel fiance]

Only a very slight thaw going on here. Looking forward to anything else we get now and to be honest, if we don't then I am looking at the fact that we have had more snow here than I ever expected, including before xmas, and that we are not even half way through January yet.

[neilthegooner]

Typical, we get the deepet snow in years the day before the big thaw. I'm not amused!!!

Edited January 10, 2010 by neilthegooner

[dallas]

Snow flurry here

[RJM]

It's been brilliant - we ended up with just over 6 inches level snow. Snizzle here now (very sleety looking snow) and a slow thaw underway. I don't know who feels the same but once it all looks a bit dull and slushly in some ways (don't shoot me down) it's good to see it go. To be unpopular I really do need a milder interlude for a short time - so much work to catch up on and I haven't earnt over the last few days. Maybe good for later in month though

[tornadica]

well its trying to snow here in Deal. looks like something coming this way from the continent, makes me wonder whats gonna hit later?

[xentrix]

This ties in well with what I think is going to happen for the end of January!

A slight Milder interlude for about 10 days starting on Wednesday and the next re-load taking shape on the 25th January, ECMWF Keeps it blocked and i'd expect the GFS & UKMO To come into line later part of this week, Worth Noting that Scotland only warms up to what levels we have today until Wednesday (Eg 2-4c) throughout the whole period so this could be an amazing Cold Spell for them "if" the Re-Load happens as I expect at the end of January.

If we do get another shot then hopefully Scandi will have cooled even further and we get that all important Wind angle for most of the populous parts!

Paul S

Lets hope this does occur and we go back to the cold wintry theme with plenty of snow in different places that hadn't had alot, thx for this Paul, logging off now going to work, adieu folks

[final dest]

had a big snow flurry in colchester, no idea where it came from as there is nothing on the radar.

will the increase in temps spark some event off?

I have never seen the weather bahave so strange before and the ppn in the east seems to have stalled.

[staplehurst]

I see Heart is still waffling on about the potential of a further 20cm! When will they learn!?

[Nick.F]

bbc now saying no snow for the south east including monday.

temps in colchester around 3c. thaw setting in and no ppn watsoever.

will the snow over wales move west or east toword us as the day goes on?

temps just north of Colchester are only at 0.5c, very very slow thaw, snow flurries.

[Mac_SE]

It's been brilliant - we ended up with just over 6 inches level snow. Snizzle here now (very sleety looking snow) and a slow thaw underway. I don't know who feels the same but once it all looks a bit dull and slushly in some ways (don't shoot me down) it's good to see it go. To be unpopular I really do need a milder interlude for a short time - so much work to catch up on and I haven't earnt over the last few days. Maybe good for later in month though <_<

Totally agree. Loads to catch up on and need to unglue myself from NW forum! Great fun, but can't for the life of me focus on anything else when there's a possible dump on the horizon, even if it doesn't actually arrive in our neck of the woods.

Here's to the next installment, but for now there's a tax return to do...

[nick sussex]

The thaw of lying snow should reduce as the winds turn more east, this will lower the dew point slightly and bring drier air in.Also a small window of opportunity later into the afternoon and evening as the flow turns more ene before turning east of some increased precip in towards the Thames Estuary.After this the upper air temps will increase but this should be somewhat mediated by the more easterly flow.

So perhaps the chance of the odd surprise today before things settle down, still some uncertainty as to how far north any precip gets in relation to shortwaves to the sw due next week.

[Hammer]

The alignment of the front through the night was NE through to SW as it moved across the region (draw a line from Norfolk to IoW for example). PPN was light, temps/dp's a fraction higher than ideal, meant sleet, light rain, some snow flurries for some as you can see was/is reported during this thread.

The PPN was so light it did not show on radar but it was happening. The models suggested the PPN to be heavier but still in a NE / SW alignment, hence why the Essex, Kent, Sussex locations were more at risk.

This is an example of where so much data available to a forecaster and reliance on the model data, caused errors to be made in judgement of what was actully developing. There needed to be some nowcasting and checking of local conditions in the region live last night, hence why we got the forecasts on TV last night which were at the very top end of what could have happened, but we should have seen a reassement made sooner.

All in all Met Office and for example BBC and Sky should be hugely dissapointed with their performance.

[wellington boot]

You'll all be happy to know that there has been no noticeable thaw here. When I woke up half an hour ago, it was snowing quite heavy powder, as it was last night at 3am when i went to bed. Still got the foot.

[snowblizzard]

What a difference a day makes and a temperature rise of 2 degrees Celius!

Yesterday, ice day -1C for most of the day (well until about 9pm) frequent heavy snow showers

Fluffy, powdery stuff and strong wind causing blowing snow and minor drifting

Today - depressing!

All that powder has quickly turned to slushy ice, mainly sleet showers - it's a mess!

I hate this stage don't you?

Edit - snowing quite heavily here now but nothing significant showing on any of the radars?

Edited January 10, 2010 by snowblizzard

[barmybint]

Just been out to the local shop and there is thaw going on here. On the upside, having watched my neighbour sweep the snow off his car at least six times since Friday, mother nature is doing mine for me <_<

[Coast]

Here's the situation at 9.00am and where it's likely to be going in the next hour or so:

[Paul Sherman]

Peeps

I think the radars are struggling badly today, just had a Moderate Snow Shower with big 50p Flakes, but nothing near me on radar??

Paul S

[Matty J]

Morning all!

Well what a suprise that was, the Beeb & Sky forcast turned out to be utter tosh !

Thaw well underway here and has been all night long, its amazing how much has melted since yesterday. Probably left with 2 inches at best and the garden bench, which last night had a good 5 inches on it is now almost dry......

Can't see anything decent falling today, temp is at 1.5c and DP at 0c.

Matt.

[wellington boot]

You'll all be happy to know that there has been no noticeable thaw here. When I woke up half an hour ago, it was snowing quite heavy powder, as it was last night at 3am when i went to bed. Still got the foot.

[Jimmyh]

so guys what is going on has the thaw started or is it that the winds came from a slightly different direction now. I am hoping for a dumping but not expecting any. Will the winds swing back to the east???? that is where most of our potential for se london beckenham is i always think

[essex coast matt]

slight thaw here, as others have said, think the temp and dew will drop a bit later, keeping an eye on radar too the east, still think there be a risk of few cms in inland parts early this eve, temp 1.1c here