London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[Thinon]

saw the thaw coming and even they didnt think it would start for another couple of days. Quite amazing that nature can have the last laugh..

Why does it never happen the other way round? Like expecting almost nothing and ending up with a shock snow storm.

[Upgrade]

ok huge disappointment here but i think if we hadnt got caught up in the hysteria and looked at the facts then we would have known this was coming. Steve Murr called it right.

Net weather had a level 5 (!) advisory out for severe weather last night - the most severe it can be. BBC London and sky were forecasting up to 8 inches of snow.

This is a serious backtrack. A thaw is even occurring in Cumbria.

Still , it was good whilst it lasted. Maybe some of us will stop obsessing about the weather for a while and learn a lesson.

[staplehurst]

Convection over the North kent coast at the moment moving STILL all points SW- although im expecting a turn west in + 3 hours-

expect the same places as the last 4/5 days to get a peppering of showers- nothing substantial though-

S

It's sleet and rain here at the moment Steve. drip drip drip...

[Roadrunner]

Why does it never happen the other way round? Like expecting almost nothing and ending up with a shock snow storm.

I think it's called sods law.

[Snow Queen one]

lost loads of snow overnight my levels have dropped by a good inch or even two. The snow on top of my shed is sliding off and my foot long icicles have shurunk. Very slippery underfoot now too. If this keeps on all the snow we have had could be gone by Tuesday. On a brighter side the kids will be going back to school and my son will be able to sit his exams now and not wait till June. So there is an up side for me. lol

[johnholmes]

This has to be the fatest downgrade in history, with the likes of J Holmes /MO etc.. all forecasting the big freeze to go on another 10 days, only the GFS

saw the thaw coming and even they didnt think it would start for another couple of days. Quite amazing that nature can have the last laugh..

I have admitted on the model thread to being fooled by the model output and holding my hands up accepting that part was wrong. Had I kept to first principles of weather forecasting I would not have suggested blizzards for anywhere other than hilly areas.

However I do draw the line at me predicting the big freeze to last another 10 days-please show me where I said that?

I emphasized on the model thread, in the regional thread and on my own voice over for the Doncaster area forecast I do that the intense cold was going to finish by the end of the weekend.

I'm not against criticism, its fair enough, but PE you have gone a touch over the top!

[nick sussex]

This has to be the fatest downgrade in history, with the likes of J Holmes /MO etc.. all forecasting the big freeze to go on another 10 days, only the GFS

saw the thaw coming and even they didnt think it would start for another couple of days. Quite amazing that nature can have the last laugh..

There was no chance of the big freeze continuing as it was as the upper cold pool was going to be exhausted, in these situations and even in some of the previous harsh winters you need another injection of very cold upper air into the mix, even those winters had periods when the upper air became less cold. The problem today is the injecton of a lot of moisture this will reduce as the flow turns more to the east and drier air and lower dew points arrive. In terms of snow chances the cold surface pool over the continent is still sufficient to provide these as there is likely to be a surface flow from there for quite some time away from the far sw.

And i don't think JH was stating the outlook would be the same as what was experienced over recent days. You can still get snow and frosts with upper air just below freezing if the flow is drawn from the continent. Until a front changes the airmass over the uk then it will remain cold, as for the UKMO and its country tracks forecast theres too much uncertainty with model divergence early on to put too much faith in that.

Edited January 10, 2010 by nick sussex

[hot air balloon/weather :)]

cheer up !! we still have the snow here in oxford but the temperature is at 1c .

20cm would prob of gone down to 18cm judging by it outside and looking on all sites there is snow expecting from 6pm-3am today.

Mark

[SMU]

the showers in the estuary on turn westwards now.....

A bit of excitment from the sky this afternoon- just dont look at the melting snow & the wet ground!!!!!!

Another hour & they will be coming down the estuary directly to the west!!!!!

S

[Matty J]

Snowing again here now, biggest flakes of the day so far and its fairly moderate.

Still can't fathom out why the radar is blank though. Sadly the thaw continues!

Matt. :lol:

[malc]

moderate snow falling here - settling again.

[snow drift]

Convection over the North kent coast at the moment moving STILL all points SW- although im expecting a turn west in + 3 hours-

expect the same places as the last 4/5 days to get a peppering of showers- nothing substantial though-

S

Thanks for your commentary on the models and the line "feel like Del Boy at the Auction" around xmas was just superb.

[Paul Sherman]

Moderate to Heavy Snow Shower here at present with big fat fluffy flakes!

Temp also dropped back to 0.4c - Nice

[nick sussex]

the showers in the estuary on turn westwards now.....

A bit of excitment from the sky this afternoon- just dont look at the melting snow & the wet ground!!!!!!

Another hour & they will be coming down the estuary directly to the west!!!!!

S

Yes a good sign that the temp is edging down at Manston in Kent as the flow there has turned towards the east. Lower dew points should be arriving soon.

Edited January 10, 2010 by nick sussex

[barmybint]

the showers in the estuary on turn westwards now.....

A bit of excitment from the sky this afternoon- just dont look at the melting snow & the wet ground!!!!!!

Another hour & they will be coming down the estuary directly to the west!!!!!

S

Steve, the way the media have forecast this, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a massive snowfall now that they've downgraded the likelihood

[Roadrunner]

Think a reality check is needed by some here! I'd much rather prefer the weather we are getting now than the mild mush of previous winters.

Enjoy this proper spell of cold while we can - plus it's only January 10th!

[dubmuffin]

Is there any small chance that the flow could get stuck from the east like it did from the NE this week?

[SMU]

Steve, the way the media have forecast this, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a massive snowfall now that they've downgraded the likelihood

LOL- yes even more ironic if the Kent snow all melted & it snowed heavy in South Essex & NW KENT + london....

Wheres the irony smiley.....

S

[yamkin]

the showers in the estuary on turn westwards now.....

A bit of excitment from the sky this afternoon- just dont look at the melting snow & the wet ground!!!!!!

Another hour & they will be coming down the estuary directly to the west!!!!!

S

Arise Sir Steve Murr. There I was saying to you that MetO/BBC & Sky News could be right with their over ramped snow forecasts yesterday.

Light snow here which has been consistent all morning into afternoon with the sudden heavy burst here and there.

[staplehurst]

LOL- yes even more ironic if the Kent snow all melted & it snowed heavy in South Essex & NW KENT + london....

Wheres the irony smiley.....

S

:)

Edited January 10, 2010 by staplehurst

[Paul Sherman]

Now back to a Snizzard

When the heavier flakes come down they are soooo Wet that they are Melting the Snow on the ground, dont get too excited People!

Edit :- Back to Heavy Wet Snow again

Something building further out in the Estuary though on the latest radar and this now pushing more E-W

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

not much more LEFT to melt here!.... drip drip

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Wet snow flakes falling with light rain now. Defintely a wintry mix today rather than the full on snow of recent days.

I would prefer dry air to arrive now without ppn. It would be good to hang on to the snow there is and dry out a bit. Less gloom and some pleasant winter sunshine with dry low dewpoint surface air would be very welcome and preserves the snow cover much better. An overnight frost would also help.

However, the suggested regime of 1 to 3C day and night though is going to erode the snow cover quite steadily. Hopefully some clearer less cloudy air will move in from the east and be picked up by the forecasters who seem to be playing catch up atm

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

ocassional light snow on and off here - slight thaw ongoing :lol: temps: 1.4C

[Matty J]

Errr Snowing again here for the umpteenth time today, big flakes and moderate intensity.

And the METO radar says..............................No precip near me! Whats up with the Radars?

Matt. :lol: