Cold Spell Discussion

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Just watched Rob on the BBC weather and he is up to his little sayings again he said 'It doesnt look much like winter on Friday with these temperatures however that's Friday'.

Just a few weeks ago he said on a forecast 'and then there is Monday ha ha ha'.

Seems to me that he is sure of the very cold returning but what do they know at the BBC after the forecasting of late, but it's a very interesting situation when Rob says things like that he is the only forecaster I take notice of.

[cyclonic happiness]

Just watched Rob on the BBC weather and he is up to his little sayings again he said 'It doesnt look much like winter on Friday with these temperatures however that's Friday'.

Just a few weeks ago he said on a forecast 'and then there is Monday ha ha ha'.

Seems to me that he is sure of the very cold returning but what do they know at the BBC after the forecasting of late, but it's a very interesting situation when Rob says things like that he is the only forecaster I take notice of.

Hehe his is a right tease isn't he?

I bet he's a lampost watcher...running backwards and forwards through the house to fetch "what? another glass of water"? lol!

[lukemc]

Hi,

Apart from the February 1982 scenario do you think we could possibly see a February similar to 1996? Because another winter that this one seems similar too is 1995-96 and I remember February 1996 because that gave a major snowstorm in our neck of the woods - North West England (Liverpool) I believe that was caused by a stalling Atlantic front hitting a cold pool of air out to the east (is the cold pool to our east predicted for next week any similar - with the threat of fronts making their way in later down the line producing widespread frontal snowfall?) and I think was proceeded by some very cold frosty nights. Does anyone else member this event and what February 1996 was like for cold and snow overall? Can anyone also explain the synoptics for that month where they predominately easterly, northerly etc? I also read that March was also cold in 1996 did that get much snowfall?

Also as a matter of interest does anyone have any memories of snowfalls in my area (Liverpool/Merseyside) in the past - what was our heaviest fall in the past 20 years or so?

Luke

[gottolovethisweather]

Also posted to my regional discussion, however I would like people's thoughts on this upcoming event?

Hello all.

IMHO, I thought the trend (last few hours) for a snow event from tomorrow's event was looking promising according to my weather station data, however what is happening now?

Air Temp had dropped to 3.2c from day max of 6.8c with equivalent DewPoint dropping down to 2.5c at the same time (8pm). So as in the MO discussion, it's all about trends and here I was, many hours from the event, happily awaiting some good action. However, as I type (9.30pm) AT is now 3.7c and DP a measly 3.1c so I feel the high ground is all that's gonna get it in nearly all of our region. The cold air needs to undercut pretty quickly now otherwise many snow wishers are going to be out of luck. the good thing is that the Air pressure does seem to be bombing somewhat so who knows, could this help the intensity somewhat

Roll on the weekend and see what develops then maybe.

What's the top guy's/gal's opinion on the coming snow or rain event, ok maybe it's a nowcast event or am I on to something?

STORMBOY

Edited January 19, 2010 by STORMBOY

[damianslaw]

Hi,

Apart from the February 1982 scenario do you think we could possibly see a February similar to 1996? Because another winter that this one seems similar too is 1995-96 and I remember February 1996 because that gave a major snowstorm in our neck of the woods - North West England (Liverpool) I believe that was caused by a stalling Atlantic front hitting a cold pool of air out to the east (is the cold pool to our east predicted for next week any similar - with the threat of fronts making their way in later down the line producing widespread frontal snowfall?) and I think was proceeded by some very cold frosty nights. Does anyone else member this event and what February 1996 was like for cold and snow overall? Can anyone also explain the synoptics for that month where they predominately easterly, northerly etc? I also read that March was also cold in 1996 did that get much snowfall?

Also as a matter of interest does anyone have any memories of snowfalls in my area (Liverpool/Merseyside) in the past - what was our heaviest fall in the past 20 years or so?

Luke

I've posted many a thread over the years about the events of the 5-6 Feb 1996 here in Cumbria. There was a discussion about it this time last week in the NW England thread when we were comparing synoptics then to what occured last Wednesday, alas the front didn't position itself in the same place or stall over the region.

Late Jan 1996 saw mostly dry and very cold conditions and there was some heavy snow around the 27th with high pressure sat over the near continent pulling in a blast of polar continental air, by the 4th Feb, the atlantic began to make inroads, with an occluded front moving into western parts which stalled directly over SW Scotland, NW England and NE Wales/NW Midlands, giving most of these parts 6 inches +, with parts of Cumbria and SW Scotland seeing nearly 2 feet, the snow continued in some places for 30 hours. The snow wasn't especially heavy as I remember here in Windermere it seemed to fall at a rate of about 1.5cm an hour, though due to its longevity we ended up with 18 inches.

The remainder of Feb was generally cold with a very cold NE blast around the 19th. March 1996 was also cold, mid to late March in particular with further easterlies bringing low level snow to many parts. The NAO was very negative in the winter of 1995/1996 with heights persistently strong to the north, the atlantic hardly made any inroads at all. There are a fair few similiarities with this winter and 95/96, and next week certainly has a late Jan 96 flavour to it. For the record April 96 was only average and May 1996 was 2 degrees below normal one of the coldest of the last century, the period Dec 95 - May 96 probably the coldest period since 1985/1986, with 4 out of 6 months (Dec, Feb, Mar and May) coming in appreciably below the CET average.

[J10]

I've posted many a thread over the years about the events of the 5-6 Feb 1996 here in Cumbria. There was a discussion about it this time last week in the NW England thread when we were comparing synoptics then to what occured last Wednesday, alas the front didn't position itself in the same place or stall over the region.

Late Jan 1996 saw mostly dry and very cold conditions and there was some heavy snow around the 27th with high pressure sat over the near continent pulling in a blast of polar continental air, by the 4th Feb, the atlantic began to make inroads, with an occluded front moving into western parts which stalled directly over SW Scotland, NW England and NE Wales/NW Midlands, giving most of these parts 6 inches +, with parts of Cumbria and SW Scotland seeing nearly 2 feet, the snow continued in some places for 30 hours. The snow wasn't especially heavy as I remember here in Windermere it seemed to fall at a rate of about 1.5cm an hour, though due to its longevity we ended up with 18 inches.

The remainder of Feb was generally cold with a very cold NE blast around the 19th. March 1996 was also cold, mid to late March in particular with further easterlies bringing low level snow to many parts. The NAO was very negative in the winter of 1995/1996 with heights persistently strong to the north, the atlantic hardly made any inroads at all. There are a fair few similiarities with this winter and 95/96, and next week certainly has a late Jan 96 flavour to it. For the record April 96 was only average and May 1996 was 2 degrees below normal one of the coldest of the last century, the period Dec 95 - May 96 probably the coldest period since 1985/1986, with 4 out of 6 months (Dec, Feb, Mar and May) coming in appreciably below the CET average.

The South Wales Valleys also did very well out of this getting up to 18 inches in places.

[damianslaw]

The South Wales Valleys also did very well out of this getting up to 18 inches in places.

Thanks for stating this, I didn't realise that the snow was as intense in the South of Wales, but it makes sense as the front will have stalled over south and central wales aswell.

[Thunder Snow]

I love robs forecast, such a tease lol.

[dodge]

I agree. There is some chap called Ben/Bill ?Farkin over on Met monkey who swears by some kind of duck, or goose or something, and he makes his forecasts based on their

activity. I have to say there are plenty of seagulls around here still !

Bill and his Farkin Grebes. Remember it well from BBC Snow(slow) watch. Apparently it's evolved into a Seagull story now. Wonder what the next bird species with astute weather forecasting skills will be??

[Optimus Prime]

Thank you for responding, however, I am not sure where you got those temps from, I lived in south wales at the time and it was very, very cold for a considerable length of time

December had two short mild spells at the start and end but bitterly cold 3 week spell in the middle.January was very similar but the milder air was somewhat more milder and last longer in both halves. Very mild second half upped the CET. But still noticeably cold at 2.6c.February was quite mild and fairly average overall. Cold spell mixed with milder ones.It would still take a lot to get down to the winter of 81/82 level due to that very cold December.

[gottolovethisweather]

Bill and his Farkin Grebes. Remember it well from BBC Snow(slow) watch. Apparently it's evolved into a Seagull story now. Wonder what the next bird species with astute weather forecasting skills will be??

Not sure, but I would guess every migratory species/all seabirds etc. as of course they spend most of their living life feeding/flying in earth's atmosphere

Still loving the models, the battles seem to be going on and on, tooing and froing just like the arguing labourites and tories.

Always learning from you guys/gals in here.

Cheers

STORMBOY

[gottolovethisweather]

Also posted to my regional to my regional thread so apologise mods.

Well I wasn't expecting to measure 15mm level snow at 9am this morning when I was observing the weather station b4 going to bed last night.

The temperature last evening had risen to 4.1c from a previous low of 3.2c just a couple of hours earlier and the Dewpoint having risen similarly. Now I'm watching snow merrily falling only 9 or so hours later. Perfect conditions now for wet snow, 0.5c AT and 0.1c DP so the temperature has really plummeted since dawn.

Well done MO and BBC as whould not have been a easy situation to 2nd guess.

Snowy Cheers yet again.

STORMBOY

Do the more knowledgeable believe I witnessed the warm front passing last night as I cannot understand what was happening at the time.

Edited January 20, 2010 by STORMBOY

[Coast]

PLAGUE OF POTHOLES WILL COST MILLIONS

Recent cold snap means more potholes - and councils can't keep up with the repairs

Repairing potholes created by the recent severe cold weather could cost tens of millions to repair, local councils have revealed.

Drivers whose journeys have been disrupted by the recent spell of frozen weather are now set to face further problems as local government comes to terms with the damage caused by the extreme conditions. Potholes have appeared up and down the country, leaving the nation's roads scarred and potentially dangerous, and councils struggling to keep up with the amount of repairs. One road in Scarborough was so badly pothole-ridden that it had to be temporarily closed.

With repairs set to continue long into 2010, local authorities are bracing themselves for a wave of compensation claims, as motorists look to claim back for the damage caused. The average repair bill for pothole damage is £240, and six per cent of all of Britain's cars are expected to suffer from some type of problem caused by potholes. This is normally a burst tyre, but axle and suspension damage is also common.

But even with councils working flat out, a road network scarred by hastily repaired 'patching' - which is vulnerable to pothole damage - has made their job almost impossible. Fed-up motorists are being advised by campaigning site potholes.co.uk to give no quarter, however, and to recoup the cost of insurance claims with compensation from councils rather than via insurance claims.

Still, every cloud and all that - Paul Butcher from Instamac, a company which supplies pothole-filling materials, has said he expects his sales to double or even triple.

www.pistonheads.com

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not too surprising- I remember some people from the snowier parts of Canada telling me that their roads are often full of potholes because of those freeze-thaw processes- it's also why the Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal is often quite a bumpy track. Many parts of Russia are supposed to be similar.

That said, it doesn't seem to happen so much in Germany despite their winters being snowier than ours- their roads are relatively pothole free- so I don't know if their winters are less conducive to the sort of freeze-thawing that generates lots of potholes or whether they have a way around it (maybe less hastily-patched roads).

[grab my graupel]

Some of the potholes around here are atrocious because of the recent cold spell

One road, in particular, was only resurfaced during the summer and now it's in a terrible state. It's not nice when you have a situation where a large vehicle, such

as a tractor, is approaching from the opposite direction - forcing you to drive into

these things. They can be quite deceiving, particularly when filled with water.

I'm glad I no longer have to use a motorcycle as transport.

[Snowmoon]

Shouldn't it be possible to build better-wearing road surfaces in this day and age? If naff surfaces are used to save on costs, then councils/government can have no complaints if they get caught out with huge repair bills at some point in the future.

[keithlucky]

Asphalt used to be used as standard but because of the cost of oil it has become to expensive,so councils have switched to a tar and chip method,i feel sorry for the councils because switching to cheaper alternatives which arent as good means insurance claims increase.If we continue with very cold winters you see many councils in serious financial trouble.

[phil nw.]

Bill and his Farkin Grebes. Remember it well from BBC Snow(slow) watch. Apparently it's evolved into a Seagull story now. Wonder what the next bird species with astute weather forecasting skills will be??

Yes i was on slowatch before it decended into chaos and i too remember Bill F.

Regarding Seagulls we have our resident flock here in Nuneaton all year round--must be something to do with The recycling centre situated nearby.

They don`t care what the weather is and we are 100 miles plus from the sea they don`t just come here when they sniff an Easterly.

They are scavengers and they reside here, where there`s a ready scource of food ,Summer and Winter.

Edited January 20, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Richard Lake]

Most councils are already in serious financial trouble.

My area is terrible for potholes and the councils is spending millions trying to fix this; although TBH the roads around here have been terrible for decades as they only concentrate their efforts on the major roads which are seriously clogged with traffic as the council introduces so called 'traffic calming' measures that are in fact 'traffic disasters' as far as the car driver is concerned. Dropping of sensible speed limits to draconian ill-thought out efforts - grr I could argue my sentiments about brain-dead road planners all day.

Edited January 20, 2010 by rikki

[cyclonic happiness]

Yes i was on slowatch before it decended into chaos and i too remember Bill F.

Regarding Seagulls we have our resident flock here in Nuneaton all year round--must be something to do with The recycling centre situated nearby.

They don`t care what the weather is and we are 100 miles plus from the sea they don`t just come here when they sniff an Easterly.

They are scavengers and they reside here, where there`s a ready scource of food ,Summer and Winter.

They say that in Nuneaton, if the seagulls fly over the town centre....it's gonna be rough at the tip!!

This is Nuneaton's most beautiful landmark...the old slag heap of 'mount judd' towering over 550 feet above sea level, where seagulls can often be seen circling and sometimes golden eagles too!!!! and spacemen!

[Richard Lake]

They say that in Nuneaton, if the seagulls fly over the town centre....it's gonna be rough at the tip!!

This is Nuneaton's most beautiful landmark...the old slag heap of 'mount judd' towering over 550 feet above sea level, where seagulls can often be seen circling and sometimes golden eagles too!!!! and spacemen!

That heap sure can't be missed.

[ZONE 51]

hi all! just found this site www.floodwarn.co.uk all the latest fax charts, radar and sats.

just so cool

[Eugene]

Some amazing scenes on higher ground in the southwest midlands, i didn't expect snow to low levels here just wasnt cold enough, just a week ago i was wading through deep snow in the countryside so all this snow on high ground in the southwest midlands brings many pleasant memories back, excellent winter so far with snow falling almost every week somewhere in england and wales

[Eugene]

Well this professional forecaster is going for the cold to last until the 29th, issued very recently.

http://www.rutnet.co.uk/pp/gold/viewgold.asp?id=7

[Loraine Bennett]

News 24....Rob McElwee has just said that it will be cold next week. :excl: :excl: