Storm General Discussion Thread

[coldfingers]

Torrential rain now in Bognor. Impressive local forecast by netweather. they gave torrential rain to start at midnight. 20 minutes early can't be bad.

[john w]

No offence intended Sam.

Personally aviation and then fluvial flooding are my personal interest. The tracking of the main rainband that seems to be laterally affecting the South coast from Bournemouth-poole (meant Portsmouth) - according to raintoday.co.uk will be key. I think spot totals may impress but average accumulations may be short of what is forecast as the area to be affected looks wider than previously forecast.

Completely agree with you in meso-scale models though Sam. In hydrometrics (river measuring) the detail and scope that they go to in the US is unbelievable compared to here and thats from a couple of weeks field trip when I was at uni. even now looking at their own services out there they have rain amounts to exceed current flood stages etc.

I have a reasonable grasp, but the maths of understanding the theory complicates me when it gets down to the fine detail.

Im going for 55mm as the highest spot total to 9Am tomorrow morning for areas where it has passed and thus less than some of the spots recorded in July 07

Edited August 22, 2010 by john w

[saint]

Seems like the heaviest stuff is further South than predicted.

[andy_leics22]

Torrential rain now in Bognor. Impressive local forecast by netweather. they gave torrential rain to start at midnight. 20 minutes early can't be bad.

My Grandad will be chuffed that Bognor got a mention, he's absolutely in love with the place. He always goes on about "The good old days when I used to stay with my Aunties in Bognor" LOL

Anyway... Yes.. Weather.. Ummmm, moderate rain on the way here, really exciting, not known a weather event like this for decades!

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for Monday, valid from Midnight, chance of embedded storms developing near cold front/TP moving NE with low early morning. Then more general showers and storms developing in rPm airmass spreading east over many areas on Monday:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Guest FireStorm]

I wouldnt pretend to be as qualified or experienced as others in this but I see tonight producing some significant totals that will cause some flash flooding (as manmade drainage systems become overwhealmed...not rivers!!!).

A realistic view is the best view to take in all circumstances personally. Like yourself I do not see much more then just some heavy rain liable to give localised flooding for the areas that have been discussed and forecast by the forecast team here on netweather and of course met-office etc.

The mention of a tornado watch for example can send people into over-drive with their emotions be it either excitement or concern but to remain realistic it is just that, a watch. Hence why when posting it was done in bold underlined and in italics to highlight it is just a watch and nothing more.

Here in Kent, and in particular the coastlines *could* be seeing some rather unseasonable high winds for August, 40mph tops and an earlier poster stated they have work being done on their roof and have tarpaulin covering the bits of the roof that was either not there or being worked on which does naturally cause concern again.

Overall it's just a rather deep low pressure giving some unusually heavy rain and windy conditions. But as we all have an interest in the weather it is fun and very fascinating to monitor, observe and track what mother nature is providing - be it a thunderstorm, EX-hurricanes or even how high or low temperatures could get or total rainfall amounts. Above all these, that realistic view should be priority in all cases.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

If i squint and imagine i can see a few flakes within the rain.

[Herefordweather]

A line of very heavy rain now appearing in the middle of the rainband stretching from South Wales, through south Herefordshire, Gloucestershire and through the South Midlands.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Latest NAE, already seems quite far off the mark.

Edited August 22, 2010 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[devon lad]

Rain now leaving West Cornwall. As already mentioned the worst rainfall ATM is futher South than expected ..... and it looks as if many areas to the West of the MO 'Warning Area' are not going to expience the intensity of rainfall expected. Also ATM no 'embedded Thunderstorms' as some on Netweather suggested there could be.

Devon lad

[jimben]

Heaving it down, Moulton in Northants

[staplehurst]

Seems like the heaviest stuff is further South than predicted.

Agrees with the NAE 18z which shunts it a little further SE.

[camiscool]

West Kent hammering it down

[Herefordweather]

As I speak, the rain is now torrential. Can here it bouncing off the roof of the house. Didn't expect much here.

[Neilsouth]

[saint]

You may be getting happy, but looking at the latest METO radar update, it seems like the heaviest is starting to shift inland, in a line aimed towards London? Or is that just me? :lol:

[andy_leics22]

Safe to say that people in Swanage have got their boats out.

[anvilhead]

A realistic view is the best view to take in all circumstances personally. Like yourself I do not see much more then just some heavy rain liable to give localised flooding for the areas that have been discussed and forecast by the forecast team here on netweather and of course met-office etc.

The mention of a tornado watch for example can send people into over-drive with their emotions be it either excitement or concern but to remain realistic it is just that, a watch. Hence why when posting it was done in bold underlined and in italics to highlight it is just a watch and nothing more.

Here in Kent, and in particular the coastlines *could* be seeing some rather unseasonable high winds for August, 40mph tops and an earlier poster stated they have work being done on their roof and have tarpaulin covering the bits of the roof that was either not there or being worked on which does naturally cause concern again.

Overall it's just a rather deep low pressure giving some unusually heavy rain and windy conditions. But as we all have an interest in the weather it is fun and very fascinating to monitor, observe and track what mother nature is providing - be it a thunderstorm, EX-hurricanes or even how high or low temperatures could get or total rainfall amounts. Above all these, that realistic view should be priority in all cases.

Thing is though firestorm, and I'm not trying to be argumentative here, what percentage of posts on this thread are saying they think the forecasters have got it wrong, and there will be widespread thunderstorms?

imo Forecasting is dealing with probabilities, and if something isn't probable, but possible, its a lot of fun talking about how things are developing in respect to that -

[camiscool]

Neilsouth looks like we could have hit the jackpot

[staplehurst]

Cell exploded to life just west of Eastbourne headed NNE - Keep an eye on it.

[coldfingers]

It's been torrential here for 20 minutes non-stop, not even slowing down slightly. looks like we have got one of the intense spots. i wont be sleeping just yet after all. It will be interesting tomorrow to see what our total rainfall is.

I am really thinking the METO have it wrong for the winds though. Currently only F3 still here.Not even gusty conditions at all.

We are obviously at present in the white blob showing just NW of the IOW on the METO rainfall radar so I can't think it can last much longer at this intensity. But here's hoping. :lol:

http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html

Erm.. Just got worse, not just stair rods but almost a fountain coming down. Starting to gust a bit too and wind rising.

Looking at this radar it seems to be actually increasing as it comes across the Channel. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edited August 22, 2010 by coldfingers

[Evening thunder]

Rain quite heavy, just hit 20.0mm accumulation at exactly midnight.

[NorthantsSnow]

Rainfall rate has peaked so far at 32mm/hr in the 15 minutes between 2330 and 2345.

[CardiffStorm]

If i'm correct the black line in the image below is around about where the heaviest precip was forecast. As you can see the bulk has gone a bit further South which I think the 18z NAE predicted. Also, heavy band has gone further North than predicted. Earlier, most of the rain was forecast to be South/East of Cardiff but it seems some has gone North/West.

[Stormyking]

Omg this rain crazily heavy carpark is under water, rain is over torrential and I just got dared to run around the carpark topless which I just did and was msot very fun lol. Anyway jsut eased a little now Oh and it thundered a minute ago and this morning which made me happy when I was in worthin in my All England National Under 25's 2- Fours semi Final and Finals :lol:.