Storm General Discussion Thread

[anvilhead]

lightning confirmed just off hte sw coast - http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=0〈=en&map=Europe

[TheToastPeople]

New forcast

http://ukasf.co.uk/m...orecast/id-335/

[MP-R]

Well the rain has certainly arrived, albeit moderate rather than heavy but it's like a millpond out there with not a breath of wind and feeling quite tropical.

Look forward to any potential convective developments tomorrow.

[SteveElbows]

ukasf have got a forecast out that mentions convection possibilities in the early hours for a few places, along with thunderstorm risk for central & northern Britain later on.

http://www.ukasf.co....orecast/id-335/

edit - oops I was too late posting this, already been done.

Edited August 22, 2010 by SteveElbows

[TonyH]

This doesn't look as if it amount to that much here it will be wet by morning, but we had more than this on Thursday and Friday last week.

In some ways this is similar to the snowfalls events in Feb 2009, when some parts of North Devon, had a foot of snow, but this would top that I think.

Give it a chance though its only just started, I reckon Swansea will see an inch by dawn.

Unfortunately saturation levels are lower in winter, so we wouldn't be seeing those sorts of bright echoes on the radar quite so easily.

I'm not sure why people are comparing this to 2007. Miles off the mark. The 2007 floods were caused by a stalling front, this system will move through in 6-9hours. We also have to remember that the ground was pretty saturated before that event aswell. I'm not saying some areas aren't going to see significant rainfall amounts. Over an inch of rain over 24hours in my part of the world is pretty rare, some years it doesn't even happen, however I can't see it causing big problems; just a very wet night.

I made the same point pages back, nothing like 2007, 2-3 inches in some places, rather than 4-6 inches.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 18z gives the Western Midlands some Very heavy rain too at around 3am. Much more so than previous runs. Still dont expect anything more than some heavy rain here though.

[A.J]

Thanks for clarifying that ajpoolshark.

I didn't realise this was supposed to be a convective discussion as any chance of that is surely miniscule and the heading is Storm General Discussion Thread. Is there another thread for discussing non-convective storms then? I would love to see some convection with this but failing that it is the first even slightly interesting weather here since April. probably why there are so many of what you class as pointless posts.by people starved of any real weather interests.

Yep, general weather thread this way --------> general weather thread

current conditions thread, this way --------->current weather reports thread

TBH, tonights rain 'event' is a good example for the re-opening of the regional sub-forums...however, some interesting posts coming through (including yours CF) pertaining to some potential newsworthy weather for southern areas tonight, TORRO forecast in particular

[john w]

There is so much inter-variability of what people want on these threads which IMO is ever amplified by events like this.

The story relating to tonights event will be:

1. The relative non seasonaltiy of it.

2. The rainfall totals and any flash flooding that occurs.

The above post, and I mean no offence to this, but as a watch, makes no reference to potentially high rainfall totals and flash flooding that could occur to the south (all the areas under W) which is the real reality of tonights situation.

I guess it depends what you are looking for but my cast earlier of the band covering an area more to the East is partly correct, though im incorrect in that the area of risk seems (at least by meto) to be a larger area as opposed to a thin band that has been transferred eastwards.

Interestingly, however, whilst it is raining here it is quite light and there is not much of a breeze (Bracknell) so pinning this down to the wort hit area is likely to be difficult as we appraoch a nowcast situation. In 6 hours (roughly) this system is meant to have passed. So if 80mm is still on the cards then some quite impressive intensity is due.

[TonyH]

The main rain starting to clear Cornwall, only around an inch down there this evening, but I guess its a case of the thing still developing and intensifying as it gradually tracks NE tonight.

[staplehurst]

The above post, and I mean no offence to this, but as a watch, makes no reference to potentially high rainfall totals and flash flooding that could occur to the south (all the areas under W) which is the real reality of tonights situation.

I agree with you, but that's because that particular forecast is concentrating on the risk of thunder and lightning as opposed to where will see the heaviest rainfall.

[anvilhead]

Hi JohnW. Torro is the tornado and thunderstorm research organisation, so they forecast the specific threats posed by thunderstorms and Tornadoes, not an all in weather service trying to keep the public safe and aware of all weather events ocuring.

sam

[coldfingers]

Yep, general weather thread this way --------> general weather thread

current conditions thread, this way --------->current weather reports thread

TBH, tonights rain 'event' is a good example for the re-opening of the regional sub-forums...however, some interesting posts coming through (including yours CF) pertaining to some potential newsworthy weather for southern areas tonight, TORRO forecast in particular

No dont think so. only 6 posts on there today, and not one mentioning tonight and tomorrow risk, if there is any.

Personally I wont be staying up waiting for the end of the world but would expect to be woken by heavy rain and strong wind. moderation in all things eh? :lol:

Night all.

Edited August 22, 2010 by coldfingers

[StormChaser]

Personally, I think you are all jumping the gun just a little bit with this rain. That's all it feels like with me, just heavy rain. On the other hand tho, If it does turn into something other than heavy rain its just my luck that it will happen on a sunday night, when most of us have work in the morning!! lol. I don't think I am going to bother to stay up and watch this one.

(notice I am saying this with hope it would turn into a worthy thunderstorm lol ! :lol: )

Edited August 22, 2010 by StormChaser

[john w]

Fair enough Sam, my bad.

Im taking a peek at things from a perspective I guess.

I wouldnt pretend to be as qualified or experienced as others in this but I see tonight producing some significant totals that will cause some flash flooding (as manmade drainage systems become overwhealmed...not rivers!!!).

I really cant see much convection arising from this, it all seems too saturated and for me the temperature gradients just dont seem to be there. Id be happy to be proved wrong!

Interesting to see this is actually passing through quick and whilst earlier I thought this could well match 2007 I am beginning to have my doubts. It has cleared the extreme SW already. Areas around me recorded appz 60mm in July 07 and that does look doubtful now as this system is quite fast moving.

Im still expecting some disruption though.

[A.J]

GFS 18z gives the Western Midlands some Very heavy rain too at around 3am. Much more so than previous runs. Still dont expect anything more than some heavy rain here though.

agreed, GFS18z more in line with met office advisories, looks messy for the SE during rush hour in the morning....Some nice energy and lift for the North Midlands tomorrow afternoon.....any idea of progged 850-500 lapses for our neck of the woods?

[anvilhead]

Hey John - no bad - I didnt mean to sound short. I'm not as gem'd up as I'd like to be, you sound like you have a pretty good grasp to me ..

Yeah I'm thinking along the same lines - I've read in a few places that the system isn't deepening as expected too - I always think with UK weather though, because we have dont have the mesoscale models etc that the states do and mostly coarse glocal models to go from, there's always the chance of something unforecast happening - maybe some dryer air being pulled in that wasnt modeled at the upper layers etc -

sam

[andy_leics22]

agreed, GFS18z more in line with met office advisories, looks messy for the SE during rush hour in the morning....Some nice energy and lift for the North Midlands tomorrow afternoon.....any idea of progged 850-500 lapses for our neck of the woods?

Yep, 2000 CAPE over Leicester and 100 over Staffordshire

[scotteboi]

Snizzle?

Mainly light rain here, nothing significant.

Same here

[Snow Queen one]

Just plain mod rain here nothing to write home about. Not staying up will miss us out this time.

[Costa Del Fal]

any idea of progged 850-500 lapses for our neck of the woods?

Quite good at 26/27c across Central and Northern Midlands tomorrow. A bit unsure about any thundery showers here tomorrow but an OK chance i think.

Edited August 22, 2010 by Blizzards

[anvilhead]

interesting to see what happens to the precip moving onto the SE coast right now - I'm probably completely wrong but I think there's a chance here of some organised convection. Lightning wizards charts earlier were showing mid level cape at this time moving across that way, and some extreme low level wind shear -

I'd say portsmouth, brighton, moving inland, but whater you do dont get excited by my comments here because my failed storm chases are legendry!!

sam

[Wales123098]

Abslotely tipping down here in South Wales! Only if this was snow:L it would be a dream!

[camiscool]

Currently in west Kent moderate rain.

[devon lad]

ATM rainfall totals don't look as though they will be as bad in Devon & Cornwall as the earlier weather warnings suggested.

Devon lad

Edited August 22, 2010 by devon lad

[Wilxy]

I agree its not as bad as it seems at the moment with the worse of the rain a bit further east.