The Midlands Regional Discussion 21/03/13 09z ------->

[Staffordshire]

Thinking about it with the high ppn rates predicted the isle of man could get buried!

[Potent Gust]

Dammit, ECM is even further north with the mild 850 temps than GFS,looks like gonna have to wait till tommorow night then for sure now when the heavy precip will be in the east

Like Ian said. Its all down to radar watching and the weather Gods now. Just sit back and enjoy

[mozza81]

It's very marginal at the moment here I think....but we have done well in the past in these events.....northern parts of staffs n stoke look to get battered!

Forecast daytime maximums of -1 on sat n Sunday!!!

[smethwickgg102]

Interesting quote from Rebecca Wood from BBC Weather

"There's an amber weather warning out for snow showers, due to reach the north Midlands through tonight. Conditions are looking very unpleasant for Friday and Saturday.

This time last year temperatures were high teens, early 20s... this weekend that's more like snow totals!"

[Ian Ballinger]

Dammit, ECM is even further north with the mild 850 temps than GFS,looks like gonna have to wait till tommorow night then for sure now when the heavy precip will be in the east

Meh if this goes tits up, just bring on spring already!

[kev238]

ECM and gfs both have the milder uppers 50 or 60 miles further north east than ukmo as one o clock tomorrow. Impossibe to know who will be correct, not sure if this then has a knock on effect on the precipitation being further east on these two compared to nae and ukmo; though it would prob be a fair assumption that this would be the case

It has reached the stage now where you need to look at the radar, does look likely that there will be a drier slot mid afternoon

I reckon stoke area to get 20 cm plus of snow

[Essan]

Based on 12z NAE Meso the Midlands are mostly looking at sleet or at best sushly wet snow till midnight (rain to the south and west). Thereafter, East Midlands - especially Leics northwards - see it turn more readily to straight snow and these conditions work back to Telford - Birmingham - Warks through the early hours. Sleet more likely to the SW of that line. Then easing later tomorrow morning, before the next band pushes in tomorrow night - and that one should produce more general snow, if we're lucky.

Tonight though will be the tester for tomorrow night/Saturday - if snow if more widespread than indicated above then expect Snowmaggedon. If less widespread then it's still touch and go for the rest of the weekend.

IMHO.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This event will definitely start as rain for all under 150m asl, think we will all (under 150m) see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow upto 6pm tomorrow

friday night and Saturday is low levels chance to see lying snow, most of that is in East midlands,

for me here, I expect a similar thing to 10th Feb tomorrow, started to turn to snow at 8pm, and ended up with aprond 3cms by morning of 11th

[shaky]

Ecm is fine for the midlands!!jheez people!!the 0 degree isotherm is covering practically the whole of the midlands and after 1pm it works its way back south again anyway!!so my opinion is birmingham north is snow all the way!!infact 850s stay at -2/-3 from leicester northwards

[we_want_snow]

Met O forecasting heavy snow for Telford tomorrow, sleet for here, why? Elevation?

As has been said, it's wait and see time!

[nats]

Radar looks awesome, lets hope the uppers are low enough for it to be snow when it gets here

[Eabie]

As usual with Coventry we seem to be right on the line. Not sure what to expect for tomorrow morning.

[kev238]

I think just be patient if you are somewhere like shropshire, likely that rain will fall at first, switching to snow as someone else has said!!

Nottingham looks like a good position depending on how heavy precipitation is when it reaches here!

[FENDER.]

This event will definitely start as rain for all under 150m asl, think we will all (under 150m) see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow upto 6pm tomorrow

friday night and Saturday is low levels chance to see lying snow, most of that is in East midlands,

for me here, I expect a similar thing to 10th Feb tomorrow, started to turn to snow at 8pm, and ended up with aprond 3cms by morning of 11th

Not at all A lot of the West Midlands would be over 450 ft, some well over. I am expecting snow pretty much from the word go. Im at 170 m asl

[smethwickgg102]

Radar looks awesome, lets hope the uppers are low enough for it to be snow when it gets here

Temp here in West Brom down to 3.8c with the DP holding steady at -1.3c. Uppers at -2c at present.

Edited March 21, 2013 by smethwickgg102

[kmanmx]

Maybe I am optimistic but i'm expecting 3 to 5cm by the time I wake up tomorrow

[Ian Brown]

This event will definitely start as rain for all under 150m asl, think we will all (under 150m) see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow upto 6pm tomorrow

friday night and Saturday is low levels chance to see lying snow, most of that is in East midlands,

for me here, I expect a similar thing to 10th Feb tomorrow, started to turn to snow at 8pm, and ended up with aprond 3cms by morning of 11th

I think it will start as rain, even here, but I would expect a quicker transition than on that day as the undercutting of the band is beginning sooner. DPs are already much lower than they were before the start of that event although obviously there will be a rise as the system edges in.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Ian Brown

[Staffordshire]

Well i am exhausted from model watching already and the 18z's havent even came out yet this one is such a rollercoaster but has the potential to deliver so much

[Supacell]

I need for there to be enough snow on the ground by tomorrow morning for me to have a snow day, otherwise I have the frightening prospect of having to travel home in the evening as the second band comes in.

[kmanmx]

I need for there to be enough snow on the ground by tomorrow morning for me to have a snow day, otherwise I have the frightening prospect of having to travel home in the evening as the second band comes in.

This, totally.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think it will start as rain, even here, but I would expect a quicker transition than on that day as the undercutting of the band is beginning sooner. DPs are already much lower than they were before the start of that event although obviously there will be a rise as the system edges in.

Any chance it could be a damp squib as 21st march 2001? setup seems similar, although way before my model days

[Arctic Hare]

Spare a thought for the tourist trade in these parts... this weekend, not only is there a craft fair in Bewdley but it's also the Severn Valley Railway's spring gala (Fri-Sun incl). If it's rain here, they'll go ahead but everyone will be drenched. If it's snow from early on, they may not happen (or not fully) as exhibitors etc may not make it up. If it's rain then snow later, there could be any number of people stranded come Sunday... much as I like snow, this is not a good weekend for it to happen from an IMBY perspective!

Edited March 21, 2013 by Arctic Hare

[Adzyy]

Don't know what to expect here.

[Dancerwithwings]

The midlands thread was split last time we had a snow avent,

so glad its back to as it always should of been and hope

it stays that way.

[Bolton67]

Think staffs will do the best out of this tomorrow. Northampton down for snow tomorrow, but looks like Saturday will be the better one for us.