North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Had Worse]

8 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Glad you got back ok closed snake pass again earlier but woodhead is open I believe 

Thanks. Roads were white in a few places and on a descending bend, i had to get into low gear and not touch the brakes.

Just looked at google maps and the Snake appears to be shut until Dec 7th !!

[iand61]

On holiday now until 13th December but thanks to tightening up on overseas travel, our anticipated last minute week in the Canaries is now very much not happening so the big question is.

a few days away in good old Blighty whether city break and Christmas markets or chilling in a cottage somewhere 

or spend the week at home.

I must admit I’d have preferred a week with the sun on my back over the damp crap currently doing the rounds here but I’m not a gambler and weren’t willing to sacrifice a week abroad against potentially spending my big 60 self isolating.

as for the weather, apparently a bit of snow overnight but you wouldn’t think so looking outside, just grey skies although signs of something brighter to the west.

time for a walk

 

[Chris.R]

Potential snow events Tuesday evening and Friday morning on GFS 6Z. Loads more if you’re above 200 m.

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Potential snow events Tuesday evening and Friday morning on GFS 6Z. Loads more if you’re above 200 m.

And this Monday morning. WRF will be in range tonight.

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 03/12/2021 at 10:51, Chris.R said:

Potential snow events Tuesday evening and Friday morning on GFS 6Z. Loads more if you’re above 200 m.

Yes - the 06z really  has come up with the goods (for now!) Greeny - Iceland incursion looking good.

Temps from the NW not favourable for Coast and Sea Level (us) but anything inland at 800ft looking promising  - all this at T+75 - what can possibly go wrong?

 

 

[iand61]

Not a lot to say about this mornings walk other than pretty mild but with a smattering of icy patches underfoot and the occasional remnants of last weekends snowdrifts piled against the dry stone walls.

slightly different route than usual but once again I strayed just over the border into West Yorkshire to see if the world was any different over there.

It wasn’t and the highlight of the day was an abrupt get off my land attitude from a couple of the biggest snorting I’ve ever seen.

i didn’t think pigs could run but even more surprising is that at almost 60, I could thankfully run faster

Even though it’s less than two miles from home, it’s years since I walked past what was until it closed over a decade ago, Hill Top Drift, the last remaining coal mine in the Lancashire Coalfield.

 

It must have been a tough place to earn a living from.

[raul_sbd]

On 03/12/2021 at 11:53, Chris.R said:

And this Monday morning. WRF will be in range tonight.

Winter tyres swap on Saturday so will be ready for my work trips to Glossop and my ‘hopefully’ trip to Poland in February

[Spah1]

Wednesday 8 Dec - Friday 17 Dec

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Dec 2021
 

SNOW to low levels ?!?! Confused

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Wednesday 8 Dec - Friday 17 Dec

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Dec 2021
 

SNOW to low levels ?!?! Confused

When METO don't go pass the weekend because of the uncertainty the above should be taken with a huge pinch of salt from the above though sounds very much like what we have just had temperatures up and down day to day and when cold enough snow to possibly fall to low levels as just the last few days have.

[Joe Snow]

Will wait for a few more model runs yet but the balance might be falling more towards a generally cold, unsettled with wintry potential pattern as we head throughout the rest of December. The latest MO update indicating low level snowfall chances reflects this. Just like last weekend the NW can do very well in these types of scenarios 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Joe Snow

[WillinGlossop]

Glossop mountain rescue on a Glossop Facebook put an update for Monday online… snow day Monday? 

[Chris.R]

GFS 12 Z showing very heavy snow to rain Friday morning now. More favourable. Tuesday still not good enough for below 200 m but trend is going the right way. WRF out soon for Monday.

[Chris.R]

Well well well… WRF now out to 12 pm Monday… Shows 5 hours of heavy snow right to the coast and only by 12 pm it’s a mix of ice pellets and rain at the very coast but still all snow east of 3° W. Interesting to see how the afternoon would play out. That looks so excellent though.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Oh 12z

 

 

[Had Worse]

3 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Glossop mountain rescue on a Glossop Facebook put an update for Monday online… snow day Monday? 

That sounds ominous. My wife won't be happy as she is expected to do her community nursing job com he'll or high water (snow).

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

That sounds ominous. My wife won't be happy as she is expected to do her community nursing job com he'll or high water (snow).

Oh jeez…. Might not happen looks marginal… have to keep an eye on it… 

ive had one of my best friends in Kent who is a nurse, after a Night Shift do some Christmas shopping online half asleep… she’s ordered like 8-10 presents but put on my address… went to glossop post office today to pick up parcel 4… a yoga/therapy mat… was walking around town earlier

[Had Worse]

21 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Oh jeez…. Might not happen looks marginal… have to keep an eye on it… 

ive had one of my best friends in Kent who is a nurse, after a Night Shift do some Christmas shopping online half asleep… she’s ordered like 8-10 presents but put on my address… went to glossop post office today to pick up parcel 4… a yoga/therapy mat… was walking around town earlier

That mat might make a great sledge !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If marginal for Will! no hope for everyone else

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

If marginal for Will! no hope for everyone else

He's using reverse psychology.

[Day 10]

Believe it when I see it!

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Believe it when I see it!

The likelihood has increased somewhat compared with the Atlantic steam roller that was shown not so long ago. 

[Dan B]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Believe it when I see it!

 

The Weather Outlook keeps flipping between rain, light & heavy snow on Monday. It'll be interesting to see what happens

[Chris.R]

What I do know for sure is that two days ago GFS was showing 7.4°C T850 for Tuesday midnight, now it is showing -4.1°C. Lower on every run.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Chris.R

[WillinGlossop]

Yes please 

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Believe it when I see it!

Yes please that’ll be lovely but don’t know… it’s snow to rain again… last nights front was dying a death as it was making inroads….  could be marginal… positive hat on could be good  

[WillinGlossop]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

If marginal for Will! no hope for everyone else

Just looked at parameters… looks better… might be more evaporative cooling event if stays the same… will get better view next few days…