model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

I don’t care that it’s a toppler..I love it!

 

 

Aye, common thing, around the 20th Nov weekend northerly on GFS, good chance of happening, great for north, bad for south, chilly wind and showers for Xmas light switch on

[mountain shadow]

Still too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet for my liking with any ridging quickly flattened. However, the broad scale northern hemispheric pattern looks primed for blocking to the North, whether we benefit cold/snow wise remains to be seen.

Personally, I would rather wait until December when lower solar energy gives us a better chance.

Edited November 8, 2021 by mountain shadow

[Bradley in Kent]

On 08/11/2021 at 08:24, mountain shadow said:

Still too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet for my liking with any ridging quickly flattened. However, the broad scale northern hemispheric pattern looks primed for blocking to the North, whether we benefit cold/snow wise remains to be seen.

Personally, I would rather wait until December when lower solar energy gives us a better chance.

Agreed, coldies don't want the goods to come before we're ready to pick up. It's encouraging though to see a lack of Atlantic and PV either weak or over Russia as well as lower heights of the Med. I'd say at the moment we want to get the foundations in place before tapping into the cold air!

[Methuselah]

Right then. Who thinks this morning's GFS 00Z is an improvement? I think it's the best run so far!

    

    

    

And what winter ever started without a toppler or two!

[Anthony Burden]

Good morning all , pressure rise getting reaffirmed now by all charts.The problem they have is to 

correctly centre it first,followed by what movement it takes after.Some exciting times for all colder

fans be it Frost,Freezing Fog with clear skies of course.

[bluearmy]

looks like a broad scrussian trough is going to dig south and introduce some pretty chilly air into e Europe as we head into the second half of the month.  It is, however, a time of year where mobility’s often just around the corner and any entrenched cold air can be quickly blown away by a few days of westerly flow.  For now we watch the amplification continue to be modelled and try to work out just where it will establish and whether a standing wave pattern is possible or if it will be ridge trough ridge trough ….. for now, the Atlantic ridge looks quite solid and sharpens as e n American troughs dig south.  

a more than interesting start to the season …..

[mb018538]

This looks interesting....from day 11-15 nearly all ECM members have some sort of W/NW block. Look at cluster 4 too with a monumental Greenland block! Probably just cold rain for many, but continuing the 2021 theme. Dead Atlantic. This autumn has been nothing like a traditional UK autumn for the vast majority.

[philglossop]

It's all ideas and patterns at this point- but the 00z run for 23rd November with the Turin Low and the high in mid Atlantic gives me some optimism. Shame the High close to the UK isn't riding North at this point- but its a start and a good sign! 

[northwestsnow]

The key is getting trough energy  southwards through Germany into  Balkans/Italy....

This looks likely, we then look to the Atlantoc/MJO influences ...

Certainly interesting synoptics..

[northwestsnow]

Artic plunge for the Baltics down through Belarus on this run...

I don't see any easy route to the dreaded Euro high from here ...

[Methuselah]

Well, I'd rather see deep cold air moving down into mainland Europe than another 'heat pump' like the one we saw so often, last year. It may not be ideal, but it's a step in the right direction?

GFS 06Z at T+195:     

Edited November 8, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Ali1977]

Day 9 plunge heading in, just need heights further into Greenland

[northwestsnow]

This run would be really quite  cold for the weekend of Christmas light switch on / Market opening.....seasonal at least..

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

And, here it is: GFS at T+246, possibly the first true Arctic blast of the season!

    

    

Get in!  

Edited November 8, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Cambrian]

Great ECM operational run at 0z, has a bit of everything, and a good deal more interesting than looking out the window this morning - can’t see a thing, there’s normally a mountain there! 

24h - a bit of a breeze at least, from the southwest, I don’t care, anything to shift this fog!

96h - some rain towards the end of the week.

Then it’s all change for the weekend, by 120h, low to our east and the high pressure builds, some cold nights in the offing during this period. 

After 14 degrees at 6am on Friday morning in Somerset, a cold morning in northern parts on Saturday, then more widely on Sunday, a hard frost over many parts of England and Wales on Monday morning, but frost restricted to southern parts by Tuesday morning.

    

Still under high pressure at 168h.

Makes you feel like kind of a shame that it doesn’t want to retrogress a bit to let us have a share of the Scandinavian trough, then…

192h, it balloons westward…..

So that by 240h, we get our retrogression, it’s moved off nicely to our southwest, with some promising northward ridging, bringing us into a northerly coming around the western flank of the Scandinavian trough. 

Nothing major coming over the Atlantic and a lot of cold air gathering to our north, with loads of potential for it to dig down over Europe during late November. It will probably get pushed back into successive day 10’s for a few days more, but barring the ocean really sparking to life out of the blue, it’s the kind of run, along with recent GFS runs indeed, that reaffirms the longer term direction of travel very nicely.

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Cambrian

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z for 19th Nov

This would wake a few of us up i think !

[mb018538]

Anyone want a some snow?



Would certainly feel bitter down the east in a howling northerly. 850s down to -10 in places, with snow showers. Ice day in parts of Scotland, low single figures widely followed by a very cold night. That's winter!

[throwoff]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Still too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet for my liking with any ridging quickly flattened. However, the broad scale northern hemispheric pattern looks primed for blocking to the North, whether we benefit cold/snow wise remains to be seen.

Personally, I would rather wait until December when lower solar energy gives us a better chance.

Not unheard of for a block to develop that sits for many weeks though. I agree probably a little early for any real fun out of it but we could do well out of a block developing early.

[swfc]

Rinse and repeat from the nnw going forward. Pretty quiet for november which is great for getting outdoors.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yep @swfc,...the control is a peach of a run...

500mb height's,850's temp's and z500 dam height anomaly.

off to work now so have a good day all

later's

[damianslaw]

Models moving towards a mid Atlantic ridge scenario through next week. Trough digging deep through scandi and possible northerly blast. Nothing long lasting as heights don't quite make it into Greenland. Thereafter heights unlikely to disappear quickly.. so we could end up in one of those rinse and repeat spells with northerly/nw airstreams alternating with something a bit milder as the high ebbs and flows north and south to our west. It would result in a mainly cold second half to November.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 01/11/2021 at 15:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

looking through the MJO data there was also a brief bit of phase 6 which ties in with the ridging in the Atlantic and brief northerly for us

  recently MJO has been switching between phases 2 and 1 with modelling looking similar too, lower pressure to the north  

awaiting to see which phases MJO moves to next for this month.

MJO has had phases 3 and 4 and a double check revealed there was a day of phase 3 in October which links well with quite a few of the posts in here recently  would agree with those runs that have shown a Scandinavian high and lower pressure heading south through UK (phase 3 November also with that Scandinavian high signal), should any lower pressure get far enough south and decent aligning of the scandi high that would be a potential route to some cooler conditions via an easterly. Phase 4 looks like the high doing some retrogressing over UK and toward Greenland I'd say frosty would be the most likely weather from that    

[sheikhy]

Gfs 12z lining up a direct hit at 216 hours!!!❄!!!ukmo sinks the high at 144 hours compared to this mornings 00z as we dont see a clean ejection of that trough near iceland into europe between 72 and 96 hours!!!

[booferking]

Something colder is definitely afoot run after run they keep appearing.

[Ali1977]

This could be a better FI on the 12z, heights pushing further into Greenland and all the way back into NE Canada. Something cold is brewing, and I like it ️