Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[tight isobar]

Ava word ref . Nor Easter of sorts - and let’s not forget similar Synoptics have been flagging via other sets... a memorable cold snap setting up proper now

[Tim Bland]

Cold and dry Christmas from ECM away from the far SW and NE 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Can we shut up about the apps? Use them at T -6 if you must, but worrying about them at T -144 is like trying to kick a football at the moon!

Apps just go off one operational.run. A good app would use cross model and ensemble probabilistic analysis but there are none of them

 

 

 

Yet ;)

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Where is 240z?

 

Narnia

[Notty]

29 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

An app and you dare to come into this thread with an App! With an attempt to take the gloss of a great day and when so many go to much effort to contribute…. Yes I bit! And codge you’re now blocked by me.. 

me too

[Ali1977]

I’ve day for most on 27th , these are midday temps 

[Eagle Eye]

What is sleep good for anyway
Tossing and turning for a week seems like a healthy idea
If this happens, then it'll all be worth it :

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold and dry Christmas from ECM away from the far SW and NE 

Far southwest? That’s 40 miles above Southampton which is Basingstoke the snow capital of southern England and it’s in central southern England.

[Ben_]

New to posting here, been lurking and learning for a few winters.

 

The potential cold is all looking very promising, is it safe to talk about it to the wife yet? 

 

 

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold and dry Christmas from ECM away from the far SW and NE 

Big downgrade for the midlands which had been looking at a snowy Christmas . We are now looking at much later for snow chances

[steveinsussex]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

surely the ECM is onto somthing here,cant be wrong can it?

Of course it can

 

jeez

[Durham Weather]

What’s going on here then? Output from Dark Sky for Durham.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The further south the better, I don't mind if we all miss out from snow from that initial low. As it means everything and most importantly the colder air is over us all, and that will lead to countless snow opportunities for all of us.

I agree! 

Remember a few weekends back when a cold but generally dry Sunday was forecast? About 48 hours before that Sunday the FAX charts started modelling a trough moving southwards down the spine of the UK, the short-range models like ARPEGE also picked it up closer to the time.

By the time Sunday came along, the trough dumped a few inches of snow to quite a few areas, including here which nicely topped up our thawing snow cover from the Saturday.

My point is, it is so important to get the cold in first, especially at the range we're still looking at. We can, and should speculate and enjoy the charts sure, but given the propensity for disturbances to suddenly show up and surprise at very short range in such cold and potentially unstable air, it isn't worth worrying about any lack of precip yet (or if snow was progged for a location, then not on the next run, etc)  

Edited December 18, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[Ali1977]

That’ll do!!

Amazing ENS

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

Of course it can

 

jeez

true of course it can,but the fact it brings the cold in earlier,is encouraging

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, saintkip said:

Far southwest? That’s 40 miles above Southampton which is Basingstoke the snow capital of southern England and it’s in central southern England.

Zoom in you will see it’s trace amounts (less than 1cm) away from SW. very cold but dry run for most 

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Well… fronts approaching from the south west, a front possibly approaching from the north carrying a very potent Arctic airmass. Both would produce a lot of snow if they made it to the U.K. 

To be continued……

[pad199207]

That push North of the cold on the ICON 12z seems like a distant memory now! 

[snowking]

In far too many years of staring at the ECM op, I can only remember 1 infamous occasion where it was wrong vs all the others at t+120…that said, this is still relatively different from previous runs, so keen to get t+120 down to t+72 on Monday before coming out from behind the sofa

Great stuff though. Suspicion is that the increase in AAM is slowly being fed in to the modelling of the jet stream coming off of the eastern seaboard, resulting in the gradual slowing of the initial Atlantic low and allowing more time for both our high to the north and the trough to the north-east to eat their share of mince pies in the run up to the big day and bloat over us, allowing the colder air to creep just that little further south.

Complete guesstimate here, but in about 80% of cases I can remember, these lows from the west end up going South of the UK, often because initial modelling has over-deepened them vs the eventual reality.

Let’s see where this sits in the ensembles, I would guess somewhere towards the bottom of the spread

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

How that ends I don’t know because Ive never seen such a pattern before!  

Any which way, we are heading nose front into a maelstrom of chaos in the northern hemisphere.  The strat vortex is spinning merrily away, we know that, but down here it couldn’t be more disconnected, frankly.  And while that’s happening, in the trop, weather systems and blocks are setting up in unusual places.  Right in the heart of winter.  If this doesn’t go for the coldies, nothing will and we might as well give up!  But it will go for us

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

 

Well… fronts approaching from the south west, a front possibly approaching from the north carrying a very potent Arctic airmass. Both would produce a lot of snow if they made it to the U.K. 

To be continued……

pressure on the rise again at day 10 towards the northwest amazing NH view

[Gregulator]

4 minutes ago, Ben_ said:

New to posting here, been lurking and learning for a few winters.

 

The potential cold is all looking very promising, is it safe to talk about it to the wife yet? 

 

 

I've been thinking the same...feel I should give my penny's worth

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold and dry Christmas from ECM away from the far SW and NE 

ECM 12z is actually a massive downgrade...in terms of snow...compared to the 0z run.

Here's the poser...is ECM 12 op run a good run...if you love snow?

 

[SnowBlake]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Narnia

Narnia business...

[TSNWK]

Very good ecm big improvements for cold at Christmas time.. however maybe not as good as gfs for longer term.. I guess you pays your money…… not sure where 240 would head?
 

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by TSNWK