Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met app - temperatures are increasing every 12 hrs!

Ignore, I think the person who inputs the info gets mixed up - if this went drastically wrong it wouldn’t be 7c

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[Sceptical]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Ignore, I think the person who inputs the info gets mixed up 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5

 

Yesterdays day 6

Any westerly push of the Scandi trough is being held back, again the Atlantic low is a bit slower. Interestingly the shortwave is now close to the east coast so we may be able to quickly establish an east/north easterly on this run.

[Beanz]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met app - temperatures are increasing every 12 hrs!

 

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Where did you get that from? The express? 

Try the Met Office, 8c end of the week.  
Slightly at odds though, but then they don’t knee jerk in these things.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Beanz

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Ignore, I think the person who inputs the info gets mixed up - if this went drastically wrong it wouldn’t be 7c

Also, this is the model thread
 

Bit weird to post that right at the start of a stonking ECM run.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met app - temperatures are increasing every 12 hrs!

An app and you dare to come into this thread with an App! With an attempt to take the gloss of a great day and when so many go to much effort to contribute…. Yes I bit! And codge you’re now blocked by me.. 

[tight isobar]

Ecm making less of a drama getting the cold in!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Beanz said:

 

Try the Met Office, 8c end of the week.  

They haven’t been updated since mid September , it’ll be 2-3c at best on Xmas day 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Ignore, I think the person who inputs the info gets mixed up - if this went drastically wrong it wouldn’t be 7c

It's straight from the UKV model, and that does show milder temps creeping in to the south midweek onwards. Double figures by the end of the week. Of course, things may change..

[LetItSnow!]

Just now, Beanz said:

 

Try the Met Office, 8c end of the week.  

And are we really going to take a Met Office max temp for a week ahead of us as all that significant when A. we have models at hand and B. they can be notoriously wrong on the actual day sometimes? Cmon.

[Seasonal Trim]

Just a quick point for those new to the forum and those with a nervous disposition.

From now until the first snows fall, the models are going to bounce around on every run. North, South, East and west. Shortwave may pop up out of nowhere and snow may come and go on every run. Even up until the day nothing will be 100% assured.

Try not to fall into the emotional roller coaster that comes with every run and just enjoy the ride no matter how it ends. 

(It never ends!!! )

 

[AFCBSNOW]

14 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Are there no other countries in the Uk bar England? 

Not if Nicola gets her way mods please feel free to remove, just some light hearted bantz!

[etched Chaos]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 v UKMO, GEM and GFS:

Keeps separation, next low looking more like it will slide.  Good this from ECM>

Uh, that's the ECM 0z.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It's straight from the UKV model, and that does show milder temps creeping in to the south midweek onwards. Double figures by the end of the week. Of course, things may change..

I know it’s the UKV, but it’s very wrong - according to the whole of today’s output!! Great ECM at T144 by the way

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, vs UKMO and GFS:

Looks sliding proper here.  

[Kasim Awan]

Ecm 12z run of season.

[Beanz]

Just now, LetItSnow! said:

And are we really going to take a Met Office max temp for a week ahead of us as all that significant when A. we have models at hand and B. they can be notoriously wrong on the actual day sometimes? Cmon.

They are no more accurate than the current models at 8/9 days out are they?? 

[chapmanslade]

10 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks like next week is going to be much milder than predicted with temperatures at 7c rather than 2-3c predicted by the Met Office just yesterday - for my location.

I do hope you are not just looking at weather apps and assuming they are 'forecasts'.  It doesn't validate until it has happened.

[Seasonal Trim]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I know it’s the UKV, but it’s very wrong - according to the whole of today’s output!! 

It's not wrong until the weather happens!

[Mapantz]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

but it’s very wrong

How is it wrong when it's 5 - 6 days away? 

Every option is on the table..

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Ecm 12z run of season.

god 144 is brilliant.whats 168 gonna be like!

[sheikhy]

Job done on ecm up to 144 hours!!!

[TSNWK]

Nice ecm 144.. further south and disruption.. I have my boom gif loaded.. for 168… had to stop blast off at t-6 earlier this week.. will it get down to 0

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mapantz said:

How is it wrong when it's 5 - 6 days away? 

Every option is on the table..

It’s not updated all day, and I’m going off today and the trend!! Anyway, let’s enjoy the ECM , hopefully a boooom at 168.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst the others argue over where the 0c isotherm is placed, the ECM has the -4c isotherm from Portsmouth to Holyhead (roughly) for Christmas Eve.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Captain Shortwave