Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Evidently but as you see newer forecasts from ECM are maintaining -NAO for longer. This suggests blocking has been underestimated and likely we will see further improvement.

The EPS gives an even more powerful insight.

 

[Ben M]

15 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

What’s the betting the ECM is a stinker……

 

 

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I've just ran a 600 m year. reanalysis using the geology in Buxton. During a major blizzard when the earth was completely iced over (600 million years ago), you will be glad to know that there are some similarities in the reanalysis to gfs. 

Gotta be marginal for SW Tip?

[Anthony Burden]

22 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yes, may well do. UKMO and GEM are taking the lows in across France and Iberia, but GFS is still further north on the 12Zs. 

One thing I've noticed as an improvement on yesterday's runs is higher heights over the GIN Corridor, meaning blocking is extending further east to our north - which prevents the low heights over Scandi spreading too far west and southwest and phasing with low heights over the Atlantic which forces lows too far northeast over the UK. Instead the blocking is keeping lows tracking east just to the south of the UK. 

All heading in the right direction ... for now. But we aren't out of the woods yet.

Superb analysis Nick .

[Mike Poole]

High hopes of the ECM 12z, trend has been all day towards the colder solutions, and, crucially, we seem to have ditched the immediate Scandi shortwave, Atlantic low link up, which would have scotched everything.  Now, with this run, it is just a question of how good it could get…or have I oversimplified things a bit…

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[ribster]

7 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Give it time and you'll get use to who's posts to watch out for and who's getting over excited.

 

That applies equally to those poised to pounce on a 'poor' run, usually notable by their absence up until that point...

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

High hopes of the ECM 12z, trend has been all day towards the colder solutions, and, crucially, we seem to have ditched the immediate Scandi shortwave, Atlantic low link up, which would have scotched everything.  Now, with this run, it is just a question of how good it could get…or have I oversimplified things a bit…

 

[Ali1977]

I just received my 5000th post badge, mostly utter rubbish, but I’m hoping it’s a good omen !! The lead up to this particular cold spell had certainly added to that figure so let’s hope it’s worth it

[Cymro]

38 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Unlikely to be southern UK, I would say.. the models are still suggesting a middle England cold spell, whilst us true southerners see the crystal liquid. Let's see where we go on the next spin of the die..

Are there no other countries in the Uk bar England? 

[Northwest NI]

If it snows to begin with and then thaws, will we have a Christmas Meltdown?

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 v UKMO, GEM and GFS:

ECM better on the gradual annihilation of the notorious Norwegian shortwave than UKMO.  Last nail in that coffin, hopefully! 

But also better on the Atlantic low, looks like a stronger block it has to go under.  All good.  

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Seasonal Trim]

2 minutes ago, ribster said:

That applies equally to those poised to pounce on a 'poor' run, usually notable by their absence up until that point...

There's a whole host of different types of posters in here. With all sorts of personalities and preferences. Sorting the  wheat from the chaff can be a challenge for new posters, especially during the Winter madness.

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, ribster said:

That applies equally to those poised to pounce on a 'poor' run, usually notable by their absence up until that point...

Some people like to come out with those comments at T24..

ECM similar to the UKMO so far!

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 v UKMO, GEM and GFS:

ECM better on the gradual annihilation of the notorious Norwegian shortwave than UKMO.  Last nail in that coffin, hopefully! 

But also better on the Atlantic low, looks like a stronger block it has to go under.  All good.  

The GFS is definitely the most poodle like

[Ali1977]

Looks great, hopefully colder a little earlier

[Staffmoorlands]

Looks like next week is going to be much milder than predicted with temperatures at 7c rather than 2-3c predicted by the Met Office just yesterday - for my location.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Staffmoorlands

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks like next week is going to be much milder than predicted with temperatures at 7c rather than 2-3c predicted by the Met Office just yesterday - for my location.

Where did you get that from? The express? 

[sheikhy]

OMG OMG!!!!ECM AT 120 HOURS!!!

[Ali1977]

That looks mighty good block holding very well 

[That ECM]

Stronger block.

Edited December 18, 2021 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM 120 

[Daniel*]

Early days but Greenland blocking seems more significant. 00z right 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Daniel*

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Where did you get that from? The express? 

Met app - temperatures are increasing every 12 hrs!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v UKMO, GEM and GFS:

Keeps separation, next low looking more like it will slide.  Good this from ECM>

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

ECM waaaaay better than the GFS, awesome