Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[WINTRY WALES]

It’s Christmas guys and gals….lack of weather ballon data and all that …I just can’t believe what I’m seeing 

[Ice Day]

Sweet baby Jesus and the wee Donkey. Fabulous and stunning in equal measure!

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm Xmas day ah gwan then

i just hope that low has moved far enough east,so in the next frame we can get the wrap around of bitter air!

[Ali1977]

Holly mother of god, this is incredible - if this isn’t a cold outlier it would be unbelievable 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[tight isobar]

The 850 vents ecm show something wonderful Xmas day a slack easterly running through and and undercutting weak flow from north France @chanel- that has the potential for a preety decent snow even for central/ southern areas... we’ll take it please BOB

[Staffmoorlands]

Disappointing ECM for this area as the snow risk has moved south of the north midlands for the early Christmas period.

Still time to correct back north but I find in these situations the low will end up affecting France and not the UK

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Holly mother of god, this is incredible 

Woooow 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I doubt it

If that’s not below the mean I’ll be surprised but happy. We will see. what a chart tho.

[Kasim Awan]

There is no real chance of a milder push now imo. It's negligable.

[Malarky]

Just now, Staffmoorlands said:

Disappointing ECM for this area as the snow risk has moved south of the north midlands for the early Christmas period.

Still time to correct back north but I find in these situations the low will end up affecting France and not the UK

Are you having a giraffe?!?!?

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM!! nothing else to say

[Ali1977]

Very very cold in that air mass, would there be snow showers in that type set up? I imagine -double digit night temps where there’s snow cover 

[SqueakheartLW]

How does 25th December 12z GFS mean compare with the 06z

06z

12z

Although the -5C isotherm at 850hpa doesn't look to have moved much it is the mean SLP that has altered somewhat with the pressure slightly higher to our west now could be the crucial factor that allows the colder air to come further south come the big day.

[TSNWK]

Ecm192

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Johnp said:

Nick S doesn't like it though? What are we missing?

 

Nothing  

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Holly mother of god, this is incredible - if this isn’t a cold outlier it would be unbelievable 

No panic, it'll be the mildest member....

[Guest]

ECM is an absolute stunner - a great set of 12z output this evening!

Apologies yesterday to @Jason M and @blizzard81  - I was far too antagonistic approaching a viewpoint that was different to my own. I appreciate it was your interpretations of the output and no less valid than my own, even if I disagreed. I should have handled it a lot better.

It is great to see such grounded excitement in the thread this evening! I know there's still reason for caution but we really are trending better and better now... seems much more common to have a good suite of output follow consecutively now. Here's hoping it continues!  

Edited December 18, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[Met4Cast]

The trends to me suggest this low might actually end up missing the UK entirely..

E/SE, who wants a snow streamer on Christmas day?

[Mike Poole]

Just, please, no one mention the Scottish Model!  (All right I mean the JMA).  

Great strides forward today both on the morning runs and now on the 12z, tonight.  Another 36 hours to confirm a snow hit for either Christmas Day or Boxing Day and then we can look the the shorter range models for snow potential. All great, but we need to be seeing it to tomorrow as well as today, one final push, folks….

Edit, I’d inherited someone else’s charts there for a moment, deleted now, I deny all knowledge!

 

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Eagle Eye]

Christmas day is a BOOM

Then looking for further on and we have got a proper easterly setting up : BOOM

 

[Howie]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The trends to me suggest this low might actually end up missing the UK entirely..

E/SE, who wants a snow streamer on Christmas day?

Meeee

[Lukesluckybunch]

surely the ECM is onto somthing here,cant be wrong can it?

[tight isobar]

Lost for words tbh- an- Astonishing run @ truly

[Methuselah]

Interesting model-discussion by Gavin Partridge. Hints of a January SSW. And I keep being reminded of 1968; bucket-loads of snow from only modest T850s:

 

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The trends to me suggest this low might actually end up missing the UK entirely..

E/SE, who wants a snow streamer on Christmas day?

Yes, it’s certainly looking likely now. Good for the south though