Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Kentspur]

From the Arctic with love. This ECM run seemingly keeps us and our friend in Slovakia Jules happy simultaneously

[chris55]

46 minutes ago, rug said:

I promise I won’t tell ANYONE but can I buy a sledge yet?

None in stock anywhere! I tried this morning lol  

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

Hey there. Been interesting reading all these comments the past few weeks (I don't know anything about these types of setups, so have stopped myself typing as I will surely get stuff wrong). MetOffice is currently forecasting christmas eve to be 10c but looking at all the models I find that hard to believe even if I am in the South West. Would anyone be able to explain why the temperatures are being predicted to be so high? NetWeather is and BBC is also predicting around the same temperatures too.

 

Thank you in advance.

The weather apps use a selection of older data and are not modified by humans (as far as I know). You are better off reading the actual forecast from the website - met office or bbc etc. but they are usually slightly behind the curve unless they are certain of weather conditions and need to warn the public etc.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Very much ties in with the latest met forecast just pre and post Christmas unfortunately for in the south. 

I think you’re right, however look at the flip today of the ECM - we could have significantly different wording tomorrow - we are nearly in the reliable now so let’s hope so 

[Met4Cast]

ECM det was an outlier

Huge spread within the EPS but a pretty clear trend for milder air into southern parts over Christmas. Ouch.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

Hey there. Been interesting reading all these comments the past few weeks (I don't know anything about these types of setups, so have stopped myself typing as I will surely get stuff wrong). MetOffice is currently forecasting christmas eve to be 10c but looking at all the models I find that hard to believe even if I am in the South West. Would anyone be able to explain why the temperatures are being predicted to be so high? NetWeather is and BBC is also predicting around the same temperatures too.

 

Thank you in advance.

I think the change in temps will come when the pros have a clear idea  where the low pressure forecast ends up further north or south. Give it 24 - 48 hours

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM det was an outlier

Huge spread within the EPS but a pretty clear trend for milder air into southern parts over Christmas. Ouch.

Bugger - I’m off to fill my half-full glass until the pub run

Edited December 18, 2021 by Notty

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM det was an outlier

Huge spread within the EPS but a pretty clear trend for milder air into southern parts over Christmas. Ouch.

Let’s hope the Op being higher Res has this nailed then.

[Liam Burge]

2 minutes ago, Notty said:

The weather apps use a selection of older data and are not modified by humans (as far as I know). You are better off reading the actual forecast from the website - met office or bbc etc. but they are usually slightly behind the curve unless they are certain of weather conditions and need to warn the public etc.

Ahh okay. Should have expected this to be honest. Currently saying the temperature outside should be 7c but it's around 3c.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Let’s hope the Op being higher Res has this nailed then.

the ens are not out yet.that was maybe this mornings

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Let’s hope the Op being higher Res has this nailed then.

Yup seen this before plenty of times!!the ensembles rock solid on cold day after day but the op doesnt follow!!then eventually cos the op is ran at higher resolution all the ensemblea follow like a pack of sheep!!

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

the ens are not out yet.that was maybe this mornings

Yes they are, I've literally just posted them.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the ens are not out yet.that was maybe this mornings

It's the 12z ensembles which are there. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the ens are not out yet.that was maybe this mornings

Nope.  It's today's 12z you can see the starting position far left

[london-snow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think you’re right, however look at the flip today of the ECM - we could have significantly different wording tomorrow - we are nearly in the reliable now so let’s hope so 

Hope so, although you mentioned flips yesterday the meto was talking about colder further south today entirely different. Personally as a southerner I’ve written off Christmas period and look past that to the 28th and onwards. 

[blizzard81]

33 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Normally I’d be sceptical of such a large adjustment from one to the next, but when it comes down to it, the ECM 12z fits both the trend of the day & the classic adjustment direction for lows passing south of a Greenland High.

Now, who was it who said they’d eat their hat if my proposal that the GFS 06z could prove closest of yesterday’s runs bore fruition...?

...and yes, this is in jest - I know it’s not a done deal yet!

Well I've been waiting 18 years for the gfs 06z to have its day . I more than anybody else hope it did yesterday. A few more runs needed yet though but good trends today. 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Yes they are, I've literally just posted them.

Is that the control following the op all the way!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Yes they are, I've literally just posted them.

damn who knows then

[Paul_1978]

45 minutes ago, Ben_ said:

New to posting here, been lurking and learning for a few winters.

 

The potential cold is all looking very promising, is it safe to talk about it to the wife yet? 

 

 

Golden rule of model watching is when there is a cold spell or snow possible, NEVER mention it to your family. It’s bound to go wrong if you do that!

[iowpompeylee]

2 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Hope so, although you mentioned flips yesterday the meto was talking about colder further south today entirely different. Personally as a southerner I’ve written off Christmas period and look past that to the 28th and onwards. 

I had done that too, until today

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that the control following the op all the way!!

I was thinking the same, surely not!!! 
 

Anyway it’s not as bad as people think, Xmas day onwards is when the Op went cold - I’ve highlighted the 3c mark and most ENS support being under that. I imagine the clusters are better than these graphs show - and we still head into the freezer beyond Xmas day!! 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[chris55]

40 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 12z is actually a massive downgrade...in terms of snow...compared to the 0z run.

Here's the poser...is ECM 12 op run a good run...if you love snow?

 

Depends where you live……

Though on a serious note it’s more about the overall synoptic pattern than the snowfall details at this range.

[sheikhy]

The mean at 120 hours!!!hold on at 168 hours!!!!!sliding like its on ice!!!❄

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Discard MOGREPS at your own risk, but quite a strong signal from the GEFS too for milder air to get into S England over Christmas.

Given the latest ECM, it'll be interesting to see where the EPS sit with this, could be GEFS/MOGREPS vs EPS..

And that ‘quite strong’ signal can easily flip.  Works both ways.  Wednesday will be the day when we know what’s happening….Tuesday will give big heads up.

 

BFTP 

[Lukesluckybunch]

looking forward to the 18z,see if it moves toward ECM