Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[rug]

I promise I won’t tell ANYONE but can I buy a sledge yet?

[Ali1977]

Out to day 10 is going to be exceptional  - Can’t wait for the ENS at next GFS

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Disappointing ECM for this area as the snow risk has moved south of the north midlands for the early Christmas period.

Still time to correct back north but I find in these situations the low will end up affecting France and not the UK

The further south the better, I don't mind if we all miss out from snow from that initial low. As it means everything and most importantly the colder air is over us all, and that will lead to countless snow opportunities for all of us.

[Captain Shortwave]

No point worrying beyond around day 6/7, but watch out for fronts approaching from the south west, but also for something coming down from the north as further cold pooling feeds into the Scandi trough.

Cold or very cold from Christmas Eve onwards for most of the U.K. Properly festive, plenty of sunshine and hard overnight frosts… oh and some snow for favoured spots.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Rayth]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Out to day 10 is going to be exceptional  - Can’t wait for the ENS at next GFS

18:48 and craving the pub run 

 

love it  

[Ali1977]

Yep, I’ll take that ️️

[Chris.R]

Can we shut up about the apps? Use them at T -6 if you must, but worrying about them at T -144 is like trying to kick a football at the moon!

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

A raw day for Christmas Day from UKMO at T+168, with a bitter Ely or SEly off a cold near continent. Wintry showers for the northeast and rain showers for the southwest, but dry elsewhere.

Quite like the broader synoptic situation too, deep cold not far away to the east and northeast.

So many different options on the table this far out for Xmas Weekend, but overall it's looking cold, snow potential too far out to worry about, looks even colder still from Boxing Day to the New Year. The high latitude blocking doesn't look to relent and the jet stream looks well supressed to the south, keeping us locking in the cold airmass, which may turn much colder.

Fantastic, a Nick I can actually relate to. Excellent summary. Good charts. Good analysis.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Out to day 10 is going to be exceptional  - Can’t wait for the ENS at next GFS

exciting stuff ali

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, rug said:

I promise I won’t tell ANYONE but can I buy a sledge yet?

Well it looks cold enough, but will there be any precipitation around?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

How can a model run be obsessed with complications? Or in a festive mood? Surely they are just computer algorithms……..
 

Of course . I do realize that but the UKMO has been getting on my nerves so I gave it both barrels !

I’ll repeat what I said though coldies should want rid of its output as it’s throwing up complications as in the slow clearing shortwave day 4 into 5 and its remnants being fired into the upstream low and then another shortwave to the north day 6 .

The ECM shows less drama which is very nice to see !

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, rug said:

I promise I won’t tell ANYONE but can I buy a sledge yet?

My personal rule is not a word.. what happens in this thread stays in the thread until 72 hours out

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Sweet baby Jesus and the wee Donkey. Fabulous and stunning in equal measure!

 

Lol what about Mary?

[Ali1977]

Is that more sliders coming in, when we have v v cold air in place? Imagine that

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Holly mother of god, this is incredible - if this isn’t a cold outlier it would be unbelievable 

There she is

[bluearmy]

Tomorrow mornings lie in is cancelled …..

[Eagle Eye]

Do not breath a word to anyone, do not jinx it
What happens in netweather stays in netweather
But...

Edited December 18, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Lukesluckybunch]

hope them lows dont introduce milder air at day 10

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Tomorrow mornings lie in is cancelled …..

[Mucka]

ECM is more inline with my prediction before the 00z this morning, in that low pressure disrupts into the continent and we find ourselves in E/NE flow only still a little further N  than I ultimately expect.

At the moment it is still far enough N to affect the UK and keep those pesky Southerners happy but if the other models come on board then it will likely continue to be corrected S and not affect the UK directly.

All that assumes this ECM run is on the right track and there is not enough evidence yet to suggest that is the case.

GFS 18z won't add anything really but tomorrows UKMO and GFS 00z runs may correct S, we will see.

[Beanz]

16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

85-90% confident now -

Of what? 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Tomorrow mornings lie in is cancelled …..

Actually.. would you mind taking another one please

[DOdo]

Brilliant ECM, Still a few more bumps to go, but I wouldnt be surprised if we see snow even on Christmas Eve. I am simply loving it

[Kasim Awan]

This is just wow - blizzards trying to get up from south

Remarkable Greenland block

Extremely cold on surface

[Froze were the Days]

Where is 240z?