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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
34 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

So I am closer to half! I can't recall the connect S of Greenland like that - thought it happened in Jan 1881 & Jan 1963 and it's brilliant for sustained cold.

I can see Jan 1881 (good spot!):

44E7C43C-A3BF-440F-9A26-6C42B64748F3.thumb.png.0a949ee87615fe50d8970d30ec5f4797.png

Jan 1963 much better known of course.  

75FAB4E3-AAF7-4D99-A446-00B005FF03F6.thumb.png.4a76b6c9ee2440c3955ec65dda597082.png

I agree the signs are there, but we will see…

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

I can see Jan 1881 (good spot!):

44E7C43C-A3BF-440F-9A26-6C42B64748F3.thumb.png.0a949ee87615fe50d8970d30ec5f4797.png

Jan 1963 much better known of course.  

75FAB4E3-AAF7-4D99-A446-00B005FF03F6.thumb.png.4a76b6c9ee2440c3955ec65dda597082.png

I agree the signs are there, but we will see…

It's just an interesting observation - will likely not see a repeat of this severity,

regardless it is still very positive for longevity going fowards 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Nick,have felt that Atlantic lows would track into Iberian peninsula rather than effect U.K. as I stated in earlier blogs,

as you say Northern blocking showing it’s hand.This of course if UKMO is correct at 168 hrs Christmas Day.

 

Yes, may well do. UKMO and GEM are taking the lows in across France and Iberia, but GFS is still further north on the 12Zs. 

One thing I've noticed as an improvement on yesterday's runs is higher heights over the GIN Corridor, meaning blocking is extending further east to our north - which prevents the low heights over Scandi spreading too far west and southwest and phasing with low heights over the Atlantic which forces lows too far northeast over the UK. Instead the blocking is keeping lows tracking east just to the south of the UK. 

All heading in the right direction ... for now. But we aren't out of the woods yet.

Edited by Nick F
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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted (edited)

Remember Snow isn't just for Christmas, it's for life. Essential Christmas shopping done

Sorry if I've jinxed it but the Beast & last Winter swallowed my last supply

20211218_172647.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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Georgina Aficionado

Georgina

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire
Posted

Hi everyone

I for one hope the trends south stop around the uk mid way latitude Still good momentum for the snow event as far as I can see 

Enjoy the ride xx

Georgie

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

Oh no the 63 comparisons have surfaced . This is always a bad sign !

Time to get the Coldie Helpline on speed dial ! 

 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Oh no the 63 comparisons have surfaced . This is always a bad sign !

Time to get the Coldie Helpline on speed dial ! 

 

Not just 63! 1881 as well.

Will be 1683/84 next!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not just 63! 1881 as well.

Will be 1683/84 next!

The daddy 47

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

Has the Greeny High went too high? Who'd have thought it but risk reward to come I suspect with PV smashed and taking up camp in an already cold Europe, who are currently benefiting from our UK high

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

It’s going to be the coldest 10 day GEFS this season I think , nearly the whole U.K. under -4 to -6 uppers 

A61C8891-AE19-444C-A505-3082887EC74E.png

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Phil Blake Aficionado

Phil Blake

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
Posted
6 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Remember Snow isn't just for Christmas, it's for life. Essential Christmas shopping done

Sorry if I've jinxed it but the Beast & last Winter swallowed my last supply

20211218_172647.jpg

You will need it up there. Probably not so much down where I am lol

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not just 63! 1881 as well.

Will be 1683/84 next!

What happened in 1683/84?  Please tell?  I can’t find it on Meteociel!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

The daddy 47

12,000BC was a stonker. Anyone have the chart archives handy? But, not the GFS; it's rubbish!

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

All very interesting again from the gfs and maintaining theme of incrementally sinking the approaching Atlantic lows further south. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

I think I’ve found the likely explanation for improving model output, it refers to NAO recent forecasts are maintaining the block better….

6317A858-61A9-44E1-94AF-7938ABA64B6C.thumb.png.5338219d47b8da863ff3475014e6e8a0.png

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12,000BC was a stonker. Anyone have the chart archives handy? But, not the GFS; it's rubbish!

I've just ran a 600 m year. reanalysis using the geology in Buxton. During a major blizzard when the earth was completely iced over (600 million years ago), you will be glad to know that there are some similarities in the reanalysis to gfs. 

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not just 63! 1881 as well.

Will be 1683/84 next!

For context / education for those of us who can’t remember Jan 1881

 

640px-January_1881_UK_Snowstorm.png

 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think I’ve found the likely explanation for improving model output, it refers to NAO recent forecasts are maintaining the block better….

6317A858-61A9-44E1-94AF-7938ABA64B6C.thumb.png.5338219d47b8da863ff3475014e6e8a0.png

But the NAO plots are just reflecting what the models show.....it is not an independent teleconnection.

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
1 minute ago, Notty said:

For context / education for those of us who can’t remember Jan 1881

 

640px-January_1881_UK_Snowstorm.png

 

36 inches deep in Dorchester from that beauty.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

But the NAO plots are just reflecting what the models show.....it is not an independent teleconnection.

Evidently but as you see newer forecasts from ECM are maintaining -NAO for longer. This suggests blocking has been underestimated and likely we will see further improvement.

Edited by Daniel*
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