Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Lukesluckybunch]

much better mean at 192 guys 

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO 168, ESE flow for Xmas day

[Nick F]

A raw day for Christmas Day from UKMO at T+168, with a bitter Ely or SEly off a cold near continent. Wintry showers for the northeast and rain showers for the southwest, but dry elsewhere.

Quite like the broader synoptic situation too, deep cold not far away to the east and northeast.

So many different options on the table this far out for Xmas Weekend, but overall it's looking cold, snow potential too far out to worry about, looks even colder still from Boxing Day to the New Year. The high latitude blocking doesn't look to relent and the jet stream looks well supressed to the south, keeping us locking in the cold airmass, which may turn much colder.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Nick F

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO 168, ESE flow for Xmas day

Defo not the worse but could have been so much better had a shortwave not cut through the high around iceland at 144 hours!!becuase of that we get a ridge that breaks off into central europe!!!

[Gypo]

Fascinating model watching currently!

I'm liking the incursion of 850s on the UKMO on Christmas day, GFS pits us with a battleground scenario?

[Mike Poole]

GEM ends on a BOOM!!!

The more I see of the runs today, the more I’m convinced that what we are seeing is a long term locked in cold pattern.  Yes, it might miss Christmas Day for some, just, but likely weather after, just gobsmacking!  

[Paul_1978]

41 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Visit meteocial- and run through the proposed 850s ... nothing apart from perhaps the extreme coastal line.. would be rain !!!!!

 

41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Away from Scotland - nothing relevant 

Which is it then chaps?

[Ali1977]

All good so far, but I still think we have room for even better charts from the ECM - it’s going to be good to watch - can we get the cold in earlier 23/24th I wonder

[ICE COLD]

UKMO T168 looks ok to me . Really cold air just to the east

[Kasim Awan]

25 out of 30 gfs ens are cold / very wintry xmas day night into boxing day .

Still a lot of scatter over how far south the cold air gets, this will remain the case for some time I think.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 looks ok to me . Really cold air just to the east

On a SE flow off the continent I think those uppers are cold enough for showers to be of snow aren’t they? Apart from tip of Cornwall maybe!! 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 looks ok to me . Really cold air just to the east

Not sure the ukmo is right there - will be more low pressure to south I think.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

25 out of 30 gfs ens are cold / very wintry xmas day night into boxing day .

Still a lot of scatter over how far south the cold air gets, this will remain the case for some time I think.

May I presume that is for north of England?

[Gregulator]

Right I'm off to have me dinner...hopefully that will settle me nerves about and come back in after the ECM has rolled out

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

May I presume that is for north of England?

Just in general wintry for uk it's really broad scale themes rather than details this far out

[Kasim Awan]

36 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

How about this for a chart at 288.  Imagine if this came off (it wont!)

That's got 63 written allover it

[Methuselah]

So that was today's GFS 12Z. And it told pretty much the same as what the other models have been saying: that, by Day 10, we should all be into colder air? How long will that last? How much snow will fall, and where? Who knows! Hardly any point in sweating over it. Yet!

      

[Phil Blake]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

That's got 63 written allover it

Turn it upside down. I can make out 21 written all over it

Edited December 18, 2021 by Phil Blake

[Anthony Burden]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

A raw day for Christmas Day from UKMO at T+168, with a bitter Ely or SEly off a cold near continent. Wintry showers for the northeast and rain showers for the southwest, but dry elsewhere.

Quite like the broader synoptic situation too, deep cold not far away to the east and northeast.

So many different options on the table this far out for Xmas Weekend, but overall it's looking cold, snow potential too far out to worry about, looks even colder still from Boxing Day to the New Year. The high latitude blocking doesn't look to relent and the jet stream looks well supressed to the south, keeping us locking in the cold airmass, which may turn much colder.

Hi Nick,have felt that Atlantic lows would track into Iberian peninsula rather than effect U.K. as I stated in earlier blogs,

as you say Northern blocking showing it’s hand.This of course if UKMO is correct at 168 hrs Christmas Day.

 

[bluearmy]

Ukmo not so far from gem at day 7 

be notable if ecm is similar 

[Dancerwithwings]

Back in November the GEM stood its ground and was the first to show the potential for a wintry outlook 10 days out, while the other models took time to catch up, and the GEM got it spot on, so hopefully it does the same this time round

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Depends if it’s showing cold 

if one model is alone against the others then I think I’m not going to choose gfs! 
 

the model which has patently failed to play on this the game is Ukmo - could do with a better run from that - not holding my breath …..

It’s produced

 

BFTP

[Dorsetbred]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

May I presume that is for north of England?

Unlikely to be southern UK, I would say.. the models are still suggesting a middle England cold spell, whilst us true southerners see the crystal liquid. Let's see where we go on the next spin of the die..

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So that was today's GFS 12Z. And it told pretty much the same as what the other models have been saying: that, by Day 10, we should all be into colder air? How long will that last? How much snow will fall, and where? Who knows! Hardly any point in sweating over it. Yet!

      

always seems to be day 10 haha

[clark3r]

Tea break before ECM not sure where the met office are getting turning milder in the south between Christmas and new year, they have been all over the place, in fact I don’t really follow them anymore, still think adjustments further south are going to take place.