Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[chris55]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

And that is what is known as locked in.. or maybe we should say frozen in…day 11 but stuff it.. 

That was a very nice gfs operational!

 

(still back a few pages but hopefully EC willcontinue the theme)

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

How is it wrong when it's 5 - 6 days away? 

Every option is on the table..

Agreed..

Rule nothing out!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas eve! could we see rain turning to snow! bit like storm Christoph

[Mark wheeler]

Choo chooo  all aboard.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Met4Cast]

DHEIEUWHUFHEH.. yes, I think that sums up how good the ECM is. 

[swfc]

ECM is about be it fi drag a snorteridge post out of me  it is pretty impressive and a great boost going into Xmas. Rollop!!!!!

Edited December 18, 2021 by swfc

[Howie]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Choo chooo

Amazing!

[Ali1977]

I mean , c’mon everyone - Merry bloody Xmas ️

[Eagle Eye]

GEM for Christmas at the moment, imagine being in Wales

Looks like we could have that sliding low in our favour going to our south, updates later

Edited December 18, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Captain Shortwave]

Merry Christmas….

   
 

Not sure if there will be any frontal systems in the south here, but showers (possibly snow) for eastern areas.

[Daniel*]

First boom of season! And importantly it might actually turn out!

 

[SqueakheartLW]

I know it's the CFS but who wouldn't want this stretch from just before Christmas Eve right until the 6th of January to verify for the cold especially but also the snow chances at various points throughout.

23rd December

Christmas Eve

Christmas Day

Boxing Day

27th December

28th December

29th December

 

30th December

New Years Eve

New Years Day

2nd January

3rd January

4th January

 

5th January

 

6th January

 

Now this is what I like the models to show for Christmas right through to early January. I'll BANK this latest 06z CFS run even though there's very little chance it will verify as shown but nice to look at.

[wightwootton]

OMG 168 ECM is a belter!!!

 

[tight isobar]

Ecm Xmas day ah gwan then

Edited December 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

85-90% confident now -

[Chrisover93]

Ladies and gentlemen this is my first tweet here and I just want to say we could be looking at a grand slam home run nearly there 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s not updated all day, and I’m going off today and the trend!! Anyway, let’s enjoy the ECM , hopefully a boooom at 168.

 

That's because only the 03Z and 15Z charts go out to 120 hours. The other 6 runs don't.

Nothing can be dismissed with the current output, no matter what model you use. 

[Winter Hill]

15 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met app - temperatures are increasing every 12 hrs!

Mine are 3c for Christmas Eve 
looks like you are a little to  far south. oh well, better luck next year

Edited December 18, 2021 by Winter Hill

[Malarky]

6/7 days away. Trying to keep myself grounded!!! Looking good though.

[That ECM]

Must be at the colder end of its members but hopefully not.

[TSNWK]

ECM 168 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

How is it wrong when it's 5 - 6 days away? 

Every option is on the table..

Yes but not every option has the same weighting...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, and now we really are through the looking glass with evolutions, might just be best to check the 850s with this one:

BOOM!!

[chris55]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO also develops another shortwave to the ne by day 6 . 

Overall I think we need rid of its output which seems to be obsessed with complications.

So goodbye and good riddance to it , come back when you’re in a festive mood! 

How can a model run be obsessed with complications? Or in a festive mood? Surely they are just computer algorithms……..
 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, That ECM said:

Must be at the colder end of its members but hopefully not.

I doubt it