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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Can you recall a similar situation in the past, Kasim, I can’t but would like to compare the charts if there is one?  

That put the willies up me earlier in the run, Nick, but it is against all other models and seems to be weakening compared to earlier UKMO runs.  

I'm probably a third of your age so - no -

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Is a whiff of 62/63 on the later GFS charts. The NH profile is very unusual!

There’s been a whiff for ages, but few of us have dared to voice it!

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Summerstorm Aficionado

Summerstorm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Popular Post
Posted

Plotting The Simpsons GIFgemeu-0-144.thumb.png.a345303213c3b2616fc402a7e629f6b7.png

 

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

How about this for a chart at 288.  Imagine if this came off (it wont!)

image.thumb.png.0c33681646361e505e8eff3bfd735b8f.png

If that came off, we’d all better stock up and prepare to dig ourselves out. 

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Ben_ Rookie

Ben_

Posted
  • Location: Chickerell, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, whether that's hot or cold.
  • Location: Chickerell, Dorset
Posted
17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

South of the m27 event.

 

 

4C0029F8-5477-4CA3-8A95-5EE25B161DD3.png

I'll take that

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

So I am closer to half! I can't recall the connect S of Greenland like that - thought it happened in Jan 1881 & Jan 1963 and it's brilliant for sustained cold.

Ice floes on the Mersey here 63, I'd settle for that.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GEM T192:

8109E289-915B-4A3C-97FF-E207DCEE1D29.thumb.png.caf88a53b758e14d883d812fb9ebd2b4.png33E6A332-0326-4830-BE00-B21BF29BE566.thumb.png.2ee705f344d501e761ba6070c905bcd7.png

We’re kind of getting a picture of the ongoing NH profile now, aren’t we?  Not every run the same, but a high heights belt through Greenland into Russia.  Exciting pattern, at the coldest time of year, and not one I can remember since my interest in weather developed.  

FASCINATING

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Tink 2010 Contributor

Tink 2010

Posted
  • Location: Hull,East Yorkshire
  • Location: Hull,East Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

If that came off, we’d all better stock up and prepare to dig ourselves out. 

Shovels for sale on my FB page.. i will start taking orders now lol. Seriously nail biting stuff and fun watching you lot throw your toys around!!!

keep up the great posts - learning from you bunch of nutters sure does pass the time

I will be watching out for the snow depth charts in due course

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

You just get the feeling that these lows sliding will just trend further and further south. And ultimately if GFS does have things too far north and we're already seeing great charts. Just imagine they could become even better!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Not many cover the uk on the big day. For some it looks interesting. For all it looks more interesting later.

DBA8064D-6F34-4B66-A153-664693718DDE.png

AD086C1A-9813-45D1-ADAD-F4586581CF53.png

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM T192:

8109E289-915B-4A3C-97FF-E207DCEE1D29.thumb.png.caf88a53b758e14d883d812fb9ebd2b4.png33E6A332-0326-4830-BE00-B21BF29BE566.thumb.png.2ee705f344d501e761ba6070c905bcd7.png

We’re kind of getting a picture of the ongoing NH profile now, aren’t we?  Not every run the same, but a high heights belt through Greenland into Russia.  Exciting pattern, at the coldest time of year, and not one I can remember since my interest in weather developed.  

FASCINATING

Looking more & more like all roads leading to cold, the locked in type too. Like you say really exciting and fascinating.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure ..

168 will tell all .

 

Everyone knows I’m very picky when it comes to the models .

So always like to see less complications . Regardless if an output looks good later if there’s an earlier area of concern that gets my attention .

I know everyone is in happy mood after the GFS so I will muzzle it till the ECM comes out ! 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
25 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Very confusing on here sometimes 

Sometimes!! Some posts tell me this ain't happening..the next one says it is..some say snow looks widespread...the next one says...its North of the Border only for the next one to say its South of Gibraltar

Not a bad set of 12s so far,with ecm still to come.

I'm pretty sure a few more of us will be left even more confused when the comments Start flying in for that one.

AppropriateHonorableApatosaur-size_restricted.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I’m very picky when it comes to the models .

So always like to see less complications . Regardless if an output looks good later if there’s an earlier area of concern that gets my attention .

I know everyone is in happy mood after the GFS so I will muzzle it till the ECM comes out ! 

Oh it wasn't a critism nick I hadn't read your post TBH..

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