Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO temps at 144, cold creeping in for Xmas eve

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

You sure? 12 hours and the low out west ballooning round and is tad further north.. annoying as the Norwegian low was playing ball I felt and being absorbed 

Yeah I think Xmas notable , fading.. but going slightly after Boxing Day+ ... is ramping up !!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO temps at 144, cold creeping in for Xmas eve

i heard somone say before UKMO is rarely wrong at this timeframe

[MKN]

9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO day 5

 

Yesterdays day 6

 

Approaches from both east and west slower, as such the Atlantic low still hasn’t begun to phase with the Scandinavian trout.

Todays day 6

Easterly winds across the Midlands northwards.

The main difference and crucial imo is the heights around Iceland 1025mb compared to 1020mb. Small difference in the grand scheme of things but makes a big difference to what the UK ends up with.

[Met4Cast]

The GFS really is a useless model when it comes to resolving undercutting, been the same for the last 15 years and I don't expect it'll change anytime soon either. 

UKMO fits well with the EPS, note the weaker low & more energy going SE vs the GFS just stalling the low and deepening it because it doesn't know what to do. Going to need a skip for the amount of runs going in the bin at this rate. 

The low is 5mb weaker on the 12z vs 06z, so its slowly moving in the right direction.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Met4Cast

[Allseasons-Si]

More neg trough disruption on the latest gfs run,...should be OK

12 138 vs 06z 144

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

lol no sorry

Just kidding mate , if the models struggle we aint got a chance 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i heard somone say before UKMO is rarely wrong at this timeframe

I haven't been Impressed with its 144 output for a while now, seems to swing too much run to run, if ECM and gem are similar at 144, confidence can be raised

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The GFS really is a useless model when it comes to resolving undercutting, been the same for the last 15 years and I don't expect it'll change anytime soon either. 

UKMO fits well with the EPS, note the weaker low & more energy going SE vs the GFS just stalling the low and deepening it because it doesn't know what to do. Going to need a skip for the amount of runs going in the bin at this rate. 

You would think they would have realised this by now after 15 years and done something about it.

Then again better to wait for all of the ensembles to come out and see what the average comes out at

[iowpompeylee]

10 minutes ago, snowice said:

You peeked to soon

If anybody knows me whatever I see bet on the opposite

[mountain shadow]

Fax charts later this evening will become more important as we see how the Met Office are drawing it.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS really is a useless model when it comes to resolving undercutting, been the same for the last 15 years and I don't expect it'll change anytime soon either. 

UKMO fits well with the EPS, note the weaker low & more energy going SE vs the GFS just stalling the low and deepening it because it doesn't know what to do. Going to need a skip for the amount of runs going in the bin at this rate. 

Considering the gfs is poor at split energy & is likely underestimating the block, it's very positive to see it's still producing very nice synoptics.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

You would think they would have realised this by now after 15 years and done something about it.

Then again better to wait for all of the ensembles to come out and see what the average comes out at

The thing this, the GFS is an American model, perhaps they don't care too much about systems once they have departed their Eastern seaboard. 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Considering the gfs is poor at split energy & is likely underestimating the block, it's very positive to see it's still producing very nice synoptics.

Good call pal

[Mike Poole]

GFS T144:

Worth looking wider than our little island here.  We are into the almost reliable here, and the trop vortex is utterly marmalised - I have a strong suspicion that this goes back to the SSW last winter, and the complete failure for the Atlantic to make inroads ever since, throughout the whole damn year!  

Who’d look at that and bet we had not had a SSW this winter?  Crazy pattern, and when all is done with Christmas, there will be time to consider what it means for the weeks ahead, and snowmaggedon will be a part of those musings, I think!

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS really is a useless model when it comes to resolving undercutting, been the same for the last 15 years and I don't expect it'll change anytime soon either. 

UKMO fits well with the EPS, note the weaker low & more energy going SE vs the GFS just stalling the low and deepening it because it doesn't know what to do. Going to need a skip for the amount of runs going in the bin at this rate. 

The low is 5mb weaker on the 12z vs 06z, so its slowly moving in the right direction.

I’m not gonna lie. It’s hard work chasing any cold getting into th uk.. and chasing it via GFS- is plain graft!

[Cold Winter Night]

With the weakening of the Atlantic depression and expansion of the High on UKMO in 24h, don't be surprised if at T+0h it doesn't even make it to the UK by Christmas, let alone Holland. Could be just an Easterly.

Look also how much smaller the trough NE has gotten.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i heard somone say before UKMO is rarely wrong at this timeframe

Ukmo noaa and ecm onboard and your looking pretty good at that range.

And I'm thinking it's looking pretty solid right now.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Considering the gfs is poor at split energy & is likely underestimating the block, it's very positive to see it's still producing very nice synoptics.

Yes, indeed, I commented on this after the morning runs, that I expected to see the most significant swings from the GFS over the next few days  precisely because of that.  So, if it is holding its own right now….it bodes well for upgrades down the line,

[Kasim Awan]

BOOM 

[TSNWK]

Where have all the heights towards Greenland gone on this run? Something of concern?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, indeed, I commented on this after the morning runs, that I expected to see the most significant swings from the GFS over the next few days  precisely because of that.  So, if it is holding its own right now….it bodes well for upgrades down the line,

Exactly this - if it's decent whilst underestimating, gives you an idea of how good it'll be when it eventually latches on.

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T144:

Worth looking wider than our little island here.  We are into the almost reliable here, and the trop vortex is utterly marmalised - I have a strong suspicion that this goes back to the SSW last winter, and the complete failure for the Atlantic to make inroads ever since, throughout the whole damn year!  

Who’d look at that and bet we had not had a SSW this winter?  Crazy pattern, and when all is done with Christmas, there will be time to consider what it means for the weeks ahead, and snowmaggedon will be a part of those musings, I think!

Yes. It's beginning to look a bit like a late March, early April NH picture, after final warming.

Best place we've been in for many, many years and we didn't even have to go through the usual wait for a "SSW sometime late January, potentially delivering late February"-scenario.

[BLIZZARDMAN]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Where have all the heights towards Greenland gone on this run? Something of concern?

A gfs chart at +180 is never a concern

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like P14 on the GFS is the first member to have a go at bringing the colder air in at +84 hours