Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM/ GFS /GEM all ready for a pattern change 9 to 10 days out still shuffling different positioning 

of high pressure.Mid week should give a better idea,untill then mostly cold to average some snow and frost

to look forward to,not just in Scotland and the north.

[Jeremy Shockey]

9 hours ago, swfc said:

Indeed, its got Jan 83 reflex all over that chart

Reflex by Duran Duran was 84 just saying ….

[Ali1977]

I quite like the sign of high pressure building in, I think that’s exactly what we need. Get it over the U.K., then any chink in the PVs armour the HP is there ready to migrate north.  

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Ali1977

[weathercold]

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

[LRD]

34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I quite like the sign of high pressure building in, I think that’s exactly what we need. Get it over the U.K., then any chink in the PVs armour the HP is there ready to migrate north.  

 

Alternatively, it could just sit there, eating up 2 or 3 weeks of winter and then sink south! If it's a frosty/foggy high I'll take it but if it's more gloom and nothingness like we had in Nov and Dec, no thanks

GFS and ECM ensembles, after a few days of looking below average with the 850s have now reverted to at or above

850s don't tell the whole story, of course, but they do, at least, rule out deep cold any time soon. I know some people have been mocked and jumped on for saying it but I will say it again - it is already looking like a gruelling search for winter this month and it's only the 3rd! Things may flip but the models flipping over to cold happens pretty rarely

The disconnected TPV and SPV might throw some cold and snowy surprises out though. Fingers crossed

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

I've got to agree. I was very optimistic and hopeful last month. Things looked good and I said on here that I thought they looked good. It imploded of course but the models and other data were promising so it was worth noting

But now, I cannot see anything suggesting a sustained cold spell at all (aside from the SPV refusing to couple with the TPV which gives us a small chance but that science is beyond me so won't comment further). Some members don't like hearing that stuff though and think you're being a misery or whatever for pointing that out when it's just an interpretation of what is showing on the modelling (and taking note of Met Office and other pro forecasters too (on here and elsewhere)). I haven't got massive expertise on this sort of stuff but I have been model watching and forum-reading for 15 years now (on and off) and I know cold prospects when I see them... and I just don't see them. It goes without saying but I hope I'm wrong and someone can fish this post out before the end of Jan and point and laugh and say "you were very wrong". But I doubt it

[mulzy]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

That MJO signal from last month seemingly, as per last winter, rather mute for any meridional flow and to be wary of hanging our hopes of cold on that variable going forward.

Looks like a repeating pattern of UK high as we enter the mid-jan period. D8-16 GFS op:

 

The control is similar and the mean heading in that direction. At this range, the core of the HP cell placement will determine what we get in terms of temps, but the last UK high was in situ so that would be my guess. Pretty average stuff unless that forecast high edges west; unlikely pre-mid-Jan due to troughing to our east, effectively a blocking pattern. With no forcing in the NH showing currently we are just seeing the natural state between systems and can be relatively confident in this status quo.

For what it's worth, the *mean* extended eps does move the core of the heights a little to the west (a low amplitude mid Atlantic high with the jet diving into eastern parts of Europe) could become the form horse in the 10-15 day range.  The sub-seasonal will gives us clues as to what happens next.  

Edited January 3, 2022 by mulzy

[Scorcher]

On 27/12/2021 at 13:21, Battleground Snow said:

Chill out pal, it was an observation of the GFS mean slowly backing off extreme 9 or 10 degrees 850mb temps, and models not reliable in all set-ups atm

The night-time maxima may well be under threat, but the day time probably won't be due to rain and cloud, and  while rare , temps of 13-15 do happen in December and January.

20 degree isotherm line in England in summer is more exceptional in my eyes, as its a bigger deviation from the climatological norm

While the all time max didn't go, the 1st was the warmest January day on record by some margin in the CET zone.

Extraordinary 24 hour period and record-breaking in a big way.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

Looks like a repeating pattern of UK high as we enter the mid-jan period. D8-16 GFS op:

 

With no forcing in the NH showing currently we are just seeing the natural state between systems and can be relatively confident in this status quo.

Edited the above to highlight it as I think it’s a good post.  I Agree.This looks a safe run one feels and probably will mirror most of January.  However, optimistically it isn’t dire longterm (but does effectively write most of Jan off…which is very likely barr near term northerly…. for any real wintry weather especially for southern half except for some frost) as it shows the slow burn of the HP slowly nudging west and LPs going over the top ever so gradually being able to sink into Europe closer to our east to eventually affect us.  

Eventually imo we’d get a real northerly blast with very deep troughing in North Sea and HP to our W (slowly edging further north and not SW)….still optimistically anticipated for late Jan/turn of month for the hemisphere pattern change .  What we don’t want is for the HP to show is it slightly sinking S or SE…..that’ll be curtains.

 

 

BFTP 

Edited January 3, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[That ECM]

The hunt for cold thread maybe should be concentrating on Tuesday and Wednesday as it’s likely some places will see falling snow. Beyond that it could be awhile.

[Climate Man]

28 minutes ago, LRD said:

I've got to agree. I was very optimistic and hopeful last month. Things looked good and I said on here that I thought they looked good. It imploded of course but the models and other data were promising so it was worth noting

But now, I cannot see anything suggesting a sustained cold spell at all (aside from the SPV refusing to couple with the TPV which gives us a small chance but that science is beyond me so won't comment further). Some members don't like hearing that stuff though and think you're being a misery or whatever for pointing that out when it's just an interpretation of what is showing on the modelling (and taking note of Met Office and other pro forecasters too (on here and elsewhere)). I haven't got massive expertise on this sort of stuff but I have been model watching and forum-reading for 15 years now (on and off) and I know cold prospects when I see them... and I just don't see them. It goes without saying but I hope I'm wrong and someone can fish this post out before the end of Jan and point and laugh and say "you were very wrong". But I doubt it

Not sure this argument holds water. I fully agree that immediate prospects are not good,  though we may have mid latitude high bringing frosty weather by this time next week.  You talk about the failure before Christmas,  it was not just publicly available models  and netweather forecasters.  You want to put your faith in the pros.  METO was consistently predicting below average temperatures after Xmas and into the NY, yet we had a record high on New Year's Day. The beauty of British weather is that FI is generally only a few days away,  even if you are a professional. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Climate Man

[mushymanrob]

Well theres no high pressure domination on this chart, just a slight positive pressure anomaly to our near West. This chart demonstrates just how dominant the TPV is even though its over Northern Canada.

Average and unsettled in a mobile Westerly mean upper flow.

 

[Alexis]

45 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

Zero blocking? Well a massive block is in some forecasts set to park itself over the UK and plenty of Scandinavian Highs migrate from the Azores, via us.

More interesting than 5 weeks of southwesterlies and getting flooded.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Alexis

[Paul White.]

25 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

Sorry I disagree with your post. In the title of this thread we see the following words. “The Hunt For Cold”. What we don’t see is the “Hunt for Mild”  most people who visit this thread know that the weather normally travels West to East. Predominately from a mild direction. So forecasting “Mild” pretty much offers zero skill, yet those that do thrive on the likes and back slapping / kudos. Telling the thread in a “I told you so” style that it is going to be mild with smugness, is akin to me predicting it will be dark in 12 hours time. In the “Hunt For Cold” thread most of us enjoy reading the posts that highlight explain and educate us on the route to cold for the UK. By all means somebody should set up a “Hunt For Mild” thread, however I suspect it will be a lonely place, and the posts in there won’t have the desired impact on the emotions of those who are looking for cold. Because nobody will be in there reading that filth until the Spring. HNY.

 

Speaking of predictions I predict this post will disappear within the next hour. 

[Mariescb]

45 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

I am new to the forum but netweather is only one avenue of many available weather discussion outlets, forcasters, twitterers and so on. My point is there are many out there that do see building blocks and possibilities(with detailed explanations as to why) for a notable change to cold over the coming 10 weeks or so of winter. I don't know your weather knowledge level but to say people are hopecasting is a little unfair imo. Regards

[Singularity]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well theres no high pressure domination on this chart, just a slight positive pressure anomaly to our near West. This chart demonstrates just how dominant the TPV is even though its over Northern Canada.

Average and unsettled in a mobile Westerly mean upper flow.

 

Remember, these charts show the flow aloft, not the surface setup.

There’s a big deceleration of the 500 mb flow over the UK there which corresponds to air ‘piling up’ (like traffic approaching some roadworks) and descending to drive a surface high development.

Still a brisk zonal flow for at least the northern half of the UK, but not unsettled except perhaps in the far north.

[Lukesluckybunch]

6z looking better here at 186h more amplified,perhaps following ECM..

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

6z looking better here at 186h more amplified,perhaps following ECM..

Doesn’t look very amplified to me

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Doesn’t look very amplified to me

i said more then 0z,but of course it could turn out a flat pattern,northwest flow at 210,although the source isnt too cold...yet

Edited January 3, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding text

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i said more then 0z,but of course it could turn out a flat pattern

Your point is correct.

[Staffmoorlands]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Lack of posts tells its own story in here,no sign after a the next couple of days of anything remotely wintry,woeful performance by the models again,the idea of Pressure building out East and effecting UK has been wiped away by them,jet too strong again.

Always a chance though things will change,as the weathr models been so woeful the whole Winter not just recently.

Looking like late Winter early spring again,for Winter to start!

Yes, typical January fare at the moment with a transient cold spell this week before a return to milder conditions. 

[Ali1977]

Similar to the ECM, so let’s see if the HP moved 

[mushymanrob]

16 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Remember, these charts show the flow aloft, not the surface setup.

There’s a big deceleration of the 500 mb flow over the UK there which corresponds to air ‘piling up’ (like traffic approaching some roadworks) and descending to drive a surface high development.

Still a brisk zonal flow for at least the northern half of the UK, but not unsettled except perhaps in the far north.

Absolutely, but they are the 500hpa mean charts, the operational runs are the 500hpa heights too, so surely the same applies to the ops?

[That ECM]

We may well see some interesting fi charts moving forward depending on what they do with the high. Remember though it will be fi.

[northwestsnow]

So much going for cold here apart from one massive pain in the rear to the NW..