Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Mark Smithy]

Overnight models show no sign of backing down on intensity and severity. There's still a chance that the low will be beginning to fill as it crosses the UK but that's straw clutching.

There's a slight problem in that if people mock Dudley they won't take Eunice seriously. It's the Friday storm which looks more severe: ferocious.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Overnight models show no sign of backing down on intensity and severity. There's still a chance that the low will be beginning to fill as it crosses the UK but that's straw clutching.

There's a slight problem in that if people mock Dudley they won't take Eunice seriously. It's the Friday storm which looks more severe: ferocious.

It is shown to be developing more to our west and there is some filling as it crosses the UK. It’s why there has been a very slight shift N since yesterday (stronger on approach to UK).

That being said, it might not matter too much as it looks like being fully aligned to the jet, so even with some filling, over land gusts of 70-80mph look very likely at this point. Some parts to the W and SW look likely (at this point) to breach 90mph.

[Weather-history]

Aperge. The area around East Anglia has 50kt wind barbs on its chart during Friday afternoon

Edited February 16, 2022 by Weather-history

[John88B]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Funnelling affect up the Severn.  The Severn Bridges are going to be closed if this comes off. 

The Mumbles is famous for recording big wind gusts, that's right in the area. 

I live just four miles from the Severn Bridge. It's quite a windy place at the best of times. This has the potential to be something seriously blowy! 

Sunday also looking pretty windy. 

An interesting spell of weather coming up

Edited February 16, 2022 by John88B

[ANYWEATHER]

No back down at all from the gfs and with only 48 hrs to go I think there's going to be little change in the output. I like exciting weather but this looks dangerous.  Winds already by early Friday morning pushing at least 100mph in gusts as it hits the southwest approaches and the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary. Yes ,I think now the general public need to be aware of this ASAP and with little time to go now. This could well lead to a trail of damage , just hope it's not so bad as it looks

[Mark Smithy]

ICON-EU is off the scale. Devon schools are not on half-term this week. 

[kazaddress]

7 hours ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

Im in exactly the same situ with my other half flying friday afternoon. Hoping that liam is right (just not snowed off but give me that over rubbish strong winds), and i guess as Nick says, the low hasnt even really developed off the eastern seaboard yet so the models havent got to grips with it yet. Tomorrow we'll know more!

My 10yr old is at a residential school trip by the South coast this week.. and supposed to be travelling home Friday after lunch.  I really don't like the idea of him travelling on a coach.

[sunnijim]

Some changes overnight ( subtle) but maybe a trend that will firm up or become somthing that is the 'form horse' going into Friday.

*Rapid intensification toward SW approaches.

*Highest winds over SW England.

Slightly further South on its UK Approach,slightly further North on its UK crossing.

* filling slightly as it crosses much of the UK ( except the extreme SW)

 

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Predicted winds have increased for my location in Devon 82mph and we are fairly sheltered by the moors to the west, this is scary….all of the south looks to get a battering, this could be historic.

Usually the forecasted winds get lower before not increase 

stay safe everyone 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Met Office app going for 64mph for me - new record 

[mountain shadow]

Given the conversation last night I expected the storm to be South over France. 

Not a bit of it. It looks like a Southern Central Wales/England direct hit now, with only the intensity now an undecided factor. 

[CLH]

Met giving me 67, Netweather 92. Never seen figures like it. I’d say both Severn crossings will close, and loads of other ones. Dudley is staring to rage outside at the moment too, which is loud enough 

[Jimmyh]

Mine has gone up by 4 miles an hour over night on met office. XC weather gone up overnight from 71 to 77mph gusts. Eek I am in South East London. The Dartford bridge will be shut early on Friday 

[Jamie M]

68 for me on the Met, can't recall the last time it was that high.

Bristol Channel area definitely looking prime for a red nearer the time I'd of thought. 

[Sky Full]

This chart from the UKMO shows predicted peak gusts at midday Friday:

So thats 100mph possibly for the Bristol Channel, south coast of Wales, and North coast of Devon with 90mph gusts widespread inland, and almost everywhere in the south to see 75mph gusts.  There could be a lot of disruption from this unless we see some change of direction or a downgrade in the strength of the winds.   Looking through the charts, the UKMO seems exceptionally pessimistic and other models don’t see it being quite so violent, but nobody should underestimate the potential impact.  We may have to wait until as late as tomorrow evening before we can be really certain about the likely final track and strength of Storm Eunice.

[Paul_1978]

Yesterday the trend was that the storm was tracking more across the south on each run. It’s looks to be tracking a little further north again this morning. Looks very worrying. 

[Stamford Bobby]

My wife is flying into Luton Airport on Friday early evening. I'm feeling nervous for her, even hoping the flight is cancelled! 

Still hoping Eunice dips south, but looking less likely this morning

[Polar Maritime]

UkV for Friday..

 

[Man With Beard]

GFS and ECM persist with a very strong storm, though coming through slightly earlier on Friday now.

The focal point of strong winds vary, but as both models bring gusts of over 70mph to most areas of England and Wales at some point on Friday, it seems unlikely that many places south of Scotland will be unscathed by Eunice.

The very highest gusts still looking like 90-95mph on SW coasts (possibly 100mph), and 80-90mph for some inland spots, with the majority of places 70-80mph. This is all quite noteworthy, but if there's any increase in intensity at all, even a small one, then this could rival the Burn's Day storm of 1990 - probabilities are that this one will fall just slightly short, but it's still within the envelope.

[Hector the Convector]

1 hour ago, kazaddress said:

My 10yr old is at a residential school trip by the South coast this week.. and supposed to be travelling home Friday after lunch.  I really don't like the idea of him travelling on a coach.

Same thoughts here with my niece. She's heading to Stubbington I believe. I haven't checked the latest output yet but I assume the risk is still there for severe gales

[emmett garland]

7 minutes ago, Hector the Convector said:

Same thoughts here with my niece. She's heading to Stubbington I believe. I haven't checked the latest output yet but I assume the risk is still there for severe gales

It's very simple. If it's an orange or red warning do NOT travel on country lanes and be aware of any large trees. 

[Cassivellaunus]

Don't understand the met office decision on this. We have amber warnings for Dudley on either Sunday/Monday which I agree with. We are now less than 48 hrs away and we are still on yellow warnings for a storm that could be the most damaging for years. I get that the track could shift last minute but surely this should have been upgraded to an amber. It should have been done yesterday covering a large area for potential track even if it does not come off. I'm talking to people about the potential storm and they laugh it off as if it's not going to happen. There BBC weather apps saying 50-60mph and met office has only just updated to 68mph but yet the charts you guys are showing have been between 80-100mph which for some people will be the difference between losing an odd tile or losing their roof or worse their life as they may avoided that journey if they had known earlier. Really disappointed in their warning system on this, I think they have played it too safe but we shall see I guess.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Cassivellaunus

[Guest]

I assume it is because they are still not confident on the exact track of Eunice. Even so we may have a broad amber today but a red is out of the question until the track is pinned down, IMO.

[ModestMention]

8 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

It's very simple. If it's an orange or red warning do NOT travel on country lanes and be aware of any large trees. 

I have convinced my wife to take the day off / WFH* as having to cross the New Forest and then the M27 is not ideal. Trees or HGVs. I WFH anyway but I'm booking the day off as if it comes off as forecasted now, I'm not getting a lot of work done anyway.

*That is booking that day off then having a zoom meeting if we have power / internet. Not claiming WFH and then skiving  

[seb]

10 minutes ago, Cassivellaunus said:

Don't understand the met office decision on this. We have amber warnings for Dudley on either Sunday/Monday which I agree with. We are now less than 48 hrs away and we are still on yellow warnings for a storm that could be the most damaging for years. I get that the track could shift last minute but surely this should have been upgraded to an amber. It should have been done yesterday covering a large area for potential track even if it does not come off. I'm talking to people about the potential storm and they laugh it off as if it's not going to happen. There BBC weather apps saying 50-60mph and met office has only just updated to 68mph but yet the charts you guys are showing have been between 80-100mph which for some people will be the difference between losing an odd tile or losing their roof or worse their life as they may avoided that journey if they had known earlier. Really disappointed in their warning system on this, I think they have played it too safe but we shall see I guess.

Unless it’s a sudden change in situation which causes immediate danger, advance warnings are updated each morning and I’m sure this is what will happen later unless the MetO see something different to all of us.

Going amber for a large area doesn’t happen often but it does and that would be the right thing to do today, emphasising risk and uncertainty. The red would be issued 12-24 hours in advance once more is known about the most likely areas to be hit with wind speeds warranting red.

Edited February 16, 2022 by seb