Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[MP-R]

18 hours ago, LRD said:

Hmmm, I can't recall too many cold Aprils these last few years apart from April 2021. Most of April 2020 was like early summer!

Indeed April seems to be the most reliable spring month for settled conditions these days. Even last year’s cold April was very dry and mostly sunny.

I’m almost waiting for the inevitable downgrades in the models as we get closer to the new month.

Short term... very un-March like conditions for the next week which is highly welcome in my opinion!

[damianslaw]

Remainder of March looking very 2012 and 2020 like. Predominantly fine settled sunny dry conditions and very mild, feeling warm in the strengthening sunshine as well reinforced by light winds.

Models continue to suggest heights will anchor west eventually exposing us to a northerly sourced flow before months end. ECM showing heights to the NW and a negative NAO pattern setting up with low pressure on a southerly path.. cold and cyclonic could be the outcome. GFS maintains heights closer to the UK and we may exchange mild for the time of year and dry and sunny with more near normal cloudier but mostly dry weather initially but suspect will quickly come under the influence of Atlantic trough from the NW.

In the meantime a great spell of spring weather on the way.. lengthy dry sunny mild period. Who can complain

 Superb weather for outdoor activities not too hot or cold just perfect! 

[SLEETY]

Still signs of a dramatic change in the weather towards months end in the models.

Still chance of seeing snow this year for many who saw nothing in the Winter and possibly best sking conditions all winter in the Highland,not unusual for April to have best  conditions

Edited March 20, 2022 by SLEETY

[Frosty.]

Well it’s the spring equinox…winter is officially over…what winter I hear you cry?! …anyway, the GEFS 6z mean hints at something perhaps for any lingering coldies to show some interest in on the cusp of…yep you guessed it, April Fool’s day! …we might be seeing the duality of spring in the next few weeks..or maybe not!!

 

 

[Frigid]

After seeing what happened last March and into April, I wouldn't be surprised if something like this came off. 

  

[damianslaw]

Immediate timeframe a long drawn Saharan southerly, then continental warmth and a gentle SE tug. As we end the month both ECM and GFS show heights advecting NW and a scandi trough forms exposing us to much colder northerly sourced air as April arrives. All quite normal in Spring.. southerly vs northerly switcharounds. Could be exchanging shorts for winter woolies.. 

[Britneyfan]

29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Immediate timeframe a long drawn Saharan southerly, then continental warmth and a gentle SE tug. As we end the month both ECM and GFS show heights advecting NW and a scandi trough forms exposing us to much colder northerly sourced air as April arrives. All quite normal in Spring.. southerly vs northerly switcharounds. Could be exchanging shorts for winter woolies.. 

northerlies always get watered down or shunted east or west, fully expect that to happen 

[SqueakheartLW]

The 3 faces of April 2022 (Potentially) based on the GFS 12z for today

Face 1 - The cold April club     P08

The run which basically turns colder when April arrives then really stops there till the end

Face 2 - The temporarily cold club then says no to cold     P07

Gets a nice cold shot in but this is soon blown away and we turn quite warm as we get into April

Face 3 - No cold for April club     P18

One of the few members of the GFS 12z that says no to any cold and just keeps us mild or warm

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all

well looking at this evening's latest anomalies i think that a colder end to the month is looking more and more likely

ECM day ten mean 500's/850's and Geopotential height anomalies:-

CPC/NOAA shows -ve heights in the ext'd infiltrating south into NW Europe but whether we will get any influence from this northerly is yet to be resolved,...also +ve heights  pushing further NW into Greenland

EPS for day ten 500's/MSLP and 850's anomalies

GEFS mean also for day ten

gefs ens for my local,..this is a sudden turn around from yesterday's 12z suit when the mean was following the LT (long term) mean

so there you have it,...but in the meantime, I will be enjoying this weeks pleasant weather with spring blooms followed by a potential arctic shock

>>>>

have a good evening.

 

Edited March 20, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 18z is a stonker.

[Allseasons-Si]

The water in me tells me that this northerly blast is gaining traction

OK Simon wake up,...i am awake

^^mouth-watering synoptic charts like this have been showing up recently across the gefs ens suits,i will let in this northerly because this winter has been sheet,...bring it on

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 18z is a stonker.

Yes a great chart and i like the interaction with the -ve heights over Iberia but fear the dreaded -west NAO as some of the EPS ext'd clusters show but that is in la la land.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The water in me tells me that this northerly blast is gaining traction

OK Simon wake up,...i am awake

^^mouth-watering synoptic charts like this have been showing up recently across the gefs ens suits,i will let in this northerly because this winter has been sheet,...bring it on

April arrives and winter finally shows it hand. Better late than never!

[Allseasons-Si]

Last one from me and if the 18z gfs is anywhere near the mark come the end of this month then expect some snow even to modest levels including the south as the -5 dam line exits the south coast by day ten.

goodnight all.

Edit: the 18z just keeps on giving,...what a run.

 

Edited March 20, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Britneyfan]

And completely unlikely to verify might I add, before everyone yet again jumps on the same bandwagon with colder weather! 99% of the time northerlies get shunted east 

[Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

And completely unlikely to verify might I add, before everyone yet again jumps on the same bandwagon with colder weather! 99% of the time northerlies get shunted east 

They do in winter, but not in spring when you don't want them!

[Britneyfan]

4 minutes ago, Freeze said:

They do in winter, but not in spring when you don't want them!

Again, as it is currently almost 2 weeks away, it has 0% chance of verifying and that will not happen, people need to stop posting day 10 charts, they are different on every single run, it’s tiresome and pointless reading comments on charts which never verify

[Mariescb]

9 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

Again, as it is currently almost 2 weeks away, it has 0% chance of verifying and that will not happen, people need to stop posting day 10 charts, they are different on every single run, it’s tiresome and pointless reading comments on charts which never verify

So what you're saying is that no 10 day chart has ever verified (0%) and that we shouldn't be looking at the models full stop as a guide to what might happen in the near future and commenting about it on a model discussion forum on a weather website. Brilliant logic, thanks for that.

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

Again, as it is currently almost 2 weeks away, it has 0% chance of verifying and that will not happen, people need to stop posting day 10 charts, they are different on every single run, it’s tiresome and pointless reading comments on charts which never verify

The skill in reading the charts doesnt stop at the charts. You need to view the trend, the ensembles, anomalies, the teleconnections because understanding what they are saying will help you identify which day ten chart is most likely to verify, and of course experience because many of us have seen these patterns before and know when they are likely and unlikely.
@Allseasons-si posted above what the anomalies were predicting for around day ten. They all point to high pressure over Greenland with low pressure over Scandinavia/Northern Europe.
That tells us that some sort of very cold Northerly is likely, so charts showing a Wintry Arctic blast have strong support and some sort of cold spell after next weekend/by April is highly likely.

[ANYWEATHER]

10 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

Again, as it is currently almost 2 weeks away, it has 0% chance of verifying and that will not happen, people need to stop posting day 10 charts, they are different on every single run, it’s tiresome and pointless reading comments on charts which never verify

With all respect to you, this is The Model output discussion thread so as it says  what it is! Yes 10 day charts are often not verified  and don't come to fruition ,but with the help of other aids such as the 500mb anomaly charts etc, and looking for trends in the longer range forecasts such as ten days or more away, then there is often more confidence in forecasting.  After all if we were only to post charts just for three days ahead this forum would be asleep most of the time ,and the "Fun" and roller coaster rides of the longer range forecast models make this an exciting place to visit whether or not 10 day model output is correct or not! ☺

[Ali1977]

Day 7 anyone

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 7 anyone

The springtime flip-flops are well and truly with us!

[Bogman]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The springtime flip-flops are well and truly with us!

My spring time flip-flop had a slug in it last night.  

Then it was stuck on my foot. 

[SLEETY]

GFS keen again on a bitterly cold outbreak,as its spring it will probably verify,if its winter no chance it would happen lol

Rarely see the minus 12 line in Winter nevermind spring

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by SLEETY

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational shows the duality of spring pretty well I think!!..