Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[danm]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, we may potentially be swapping a quick mega hot day for several nearly mega hot days.

Which may be a downgrade or upgrade, depending on how you see things

And this is probably why the Met have released a heat warning. Unlike in winter when a warning is put out for heavy snow, if that snow event doesn't happen, there is generally no severe weather. However, in this situation whilst we may not break the all time record or hit 40°c, that doesn't mean the impacts of the heat we do have won't be impactful (hence the warning).

If we get several consecutive days of temperatures ranging from 28°c to 35°c with very warm overnight temperatures, then the cumulative nature of the heat can cause problems. If there is no respite, then non airconditioned homes and flats will remain hot, even if the record isn't broken. 

7 days of temperatures between 30-35°c is more impactful than 2 days of temperatures at 38-40°c with average temperatures either side. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by danm

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep very warm on that set of runs. High thirties I would have thought 

Believe it or not that's slightly cooler than previous runs - could still be enough for high 30s

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I've been incredibly impressed by the GFS. To think we were watching this at T384, and the GFS kept repeating the plume. It's going up and up in my estimation.

As have I, MWB: ever since it picked up on the incredible warmth back in February 2019!

[NTC]

6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

5th July runs went for Sunday, in one week since that run we've been delayed by one day, I really don't see what the big deal is.

Well firstly the super powerful computers said Thursday 14 July and that was wrong, the image you quoted says 42c which is now supposedly wrong. So the big deal is no one can rely on  computer models when they have the wrong dates and the wrong temperatures and too much emphasis is put on every model that is released.

Is the 52c in South of France still predicted sometimes its a case of boy crying wolf when almost everyday for 2 weeks 40c plus has been on a computer model and people scream and shout like its a full gone conclusion.

[qwertyK]

Weather for me now gone down to just 29c on Sunday , down from like 35 a couple days ago. Monday 33, Tuesday 32c and then back down again 

Just now, NTC said:

Well firstly the super powerful computers said Thursday 14 July and that was wrong, the image you quoted says 42c which is now supposedly wrong. So the big deal is no one can rely on  computer models when they have the wrong dates and the wrong temperatures and too much emphasis is put on every model that is released.

Is the 52c in South of France still predicted sometimes its a case of boy crying wolf when almost everyday for 2 weeks 40c plus has been on a computer model and people scream and shout like its a full gone conclusion.

What model was predicting 49c for Brittany and the north coast of france ? 

[Earthshine]

Outlook looks warm for the south west

[Djdazzle]

Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.

[Paul]

Hi-res ecm ensembles are interesting - they continue along very similar lines for the weekend/early next week. But, also with increasing support for some further hotter incursions beyond that. 

[Staffmoorlands]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.

Fax charts are your best option for the detail. They have correctly showed the front and associated cloud and rain for a number of days.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

looking less hot on the 6z,lets see how it develops

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looking less hot on the 6z,lets see how it develops

Yep. 20’C 850hpa temperatures struggling to make inroads on this run

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. 20’C 850hpa temperatures struggling to make inroads on this run

30-33c maximums

[Liam Burge]

26 minutes ago, NTC said:

Well firstly the super powerful computers said Thursday 14 July and that was wrong, the image you quoted says 42c which is now supposedly wrong. So the big deal is no one can rely on  computer models when they have the wrong dates and the wrong temperatures and too much emphasis is put on every model that is released.

Is the 52c in South of France still predicted sometimes its a case of boy crying wolf when almost everyday for 2 weeks 40c plus has been on a computer model and people scream and shout like its a full gone conclusion.

42c was only ever going to come off under the perfect conditions. Taking model outputs from 10+ days away like you seem to be doing as fact is just wrong.

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Fax charts are your best option for the detail. They have correctly showed the front and associated cloud and rain for a number of days.

 

Yes, I saw those. But Meto forecast even this morning went for sunny spells in the south.

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

30-33c maximums

Doubt it will be that low. Just the usual inter-run variation.

[Captain Shortwave]

I wonder whether the GFS is going to try for a longer and broader peak of temperatures here. The Azores high is much closer on this run and could very well loop over the top and keep that low trapped.

 

Temperatures - 32c on Sunday, 35c Monday, looks to be the 36-38c mark for Tuesday.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.

It was meant to be cloudy today - that's been pretty well forecast the last few days?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Trouble is....by Tuesday we're very likely looking at everything being swept away by the developing low. The runs looked much better last night with everything lined up perfectly all day on Monday, without the immediate breakdown on the doorstep. It'll probably end up that we start Tuesday with >20c 850 temps, before they quickly get swept aside by lunchtime, which will knock 3-5c off the achievable high. 

The plume itself has only ever looked like being a 24/48 hour event. If it’s 36 hours and arrives overnight then that really mean only one day offers the chance to break the record. We won’t know for a couple, days yet how quickly that trough will come through. If it doesn’t engage with the Atlantic jet then it may look very different ! 

18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.

The met office website was showing today to be high clouds in the Home Counties since Sunday 

[mb018538]

35-36c in a number of locations on the 6z GFS for Monday

[NTC]

6 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

42c was only ever going to come off under the perfect conditions. Taking model outputs from 10+ days away like you seem to be doing as fact is just wrong.

I wasn't the one last week planning to book into an air conditioned hotel or claiming that all fridges and freezers would stop working and people would die because I do not take the models on face value they are businesses and they get people to their websites and Youtube pages to generate money and to do that you say 42c and danger to life not 25c cloudy with sunny intervals. Some people on here go loopy when a model is released.

Edited July 12, 2022 by NTC

[Djdazzle]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The plume itself has only ever looked like being a 24/48 hour event. If it’s 36 hours and arrives overnight then that really mean only one day offers the chance to break the record. We won’t know for a couple, days yet how quickly that trough will come through. If it doesn’t engage with the Atlantic jet then it may look very different ! 

The met office website was showing today to be high clouds in the Home Counties since Sunday 

Yes agreed about the high cloud - but that in itself wouldn't prevent some sunshine. It's been more like mid-level cloud.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I wonder whether the GFS is going to try for a longer and broader peak of temperatures here. The Azores high is much closer on this run and could very well loop over the top and keep that low trapped.

Trending back to the ridge across the top which suppresses the plume 

plenty more runs required! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

you have to laugh it was looking like sunday was gonna be the real hot one..now it seems we are chasing it onto tuesday to be the hottest day..sunday is still 5 days away,so nothing yet nailed

[Paul]

32 minutes ago, NTC said:

Is the 52c in South of France still predicted sometimes its a case of boy crying wolf when almost everyday for 2 weeks 40c plus has been on a computer model and people scream and shout like its a full gone conclusion.

Honestly, I know people get excitable in here sometimes, but I've literally not seen a single person claiming 40c+ was a foregone conclusion, and even if someone has and I've missed it, that is hardly indicative of the discussions in here overall. So, perhaps some perspective required?

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, I saw those. But Meto forecast even this morning went for sunny spells in the south.

Doubt it will be that low. Just the usual inter-run variation.

you could be right i guess many places will see 35/36 into monday

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Honestly, I know people get excitable in here sometimes, but I've literally not seen a single person claiming 40c+ was a foregone conclusion, and even if someone has and I've missed it, that is hardly indicative of the discussions in here overall. So, perhaps some perspective required?

Come on Paul - admit you’re just hyping it all up to generate income ……….