Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Iceman2606]

ECM 12z for Friday showing temps widely into the high twenties/low thirties especially for eastern areas. Saturday has has the heat confined to the S/SE.

[Guest]

Thats the hottest ECM has been for Saturday so far. Also it clearly goes bang over Dorset / Hants about 6pm.

[mb018538]

Some of these charts being churned out for Saturday are the most extreme I can remember for the UK in summer. More like the stuff you see on the plains in the USA rather than here. 20c difference over a couple of hundred miles!

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Some of these charts being churned out for Saturday are the most extreme I can remember for the UK in summer. More like the stuff you see on the plains in the USA rather than here. 20c difference over a couple of hundred miles!

Colorado, eat your heart out! Although it’s not quite the 35’C to 0z with heavy snow in the space of 12 hours that they get.

[Iceman2606]

Latest 15z UKV showing 30-33°C for parts of central and eastern England for Friday.

[Paul]

There's actually a 34c in there, so a bit toned down from the 03z, but not massively. 

 

[Paul]

Pick the bones out of the precip forecast, going to be really hard to nail down how all this is all going to play out. 

[MattStoke]

20’C isotherm now over south eastern areas Friday afternoon on the ECM high res. Hotter than the previous run  

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM shows up to 2 inches of rain falling across Wales, the Midlands and into parts of N England by midday Mon.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

20’C isotherm now over south eastern areas Friday afternoon on the ECM high res. Hotter than the previous run  

The odd 21c around by Fri late afternoon 

[Man With Beard]

Quite something to see 41/42C across the channel at any time, let alone before the solstice. The southern counties of England remain on the brink of something sensational for Saturday, just a 50-100 mile correction away from mid 30Cs. Which is a nothing correction globally.

[Roadrunner]

I do wonder if there is potential for everything to shift north for Saturday as Man With Beard alludes to. Would be great to have a hot and sunny weekend day to make the most of this spell, even if the rain eventually comes Saturday night. 

Would hate to have to forecast this - BBC and Met apps are all over the place for Saturday and Sunday! 

[bluearmy]

Looking beyond the chaos of the weekend, the upper trough to our nne struggling to dig south next week on the 12z eps mean 

is this just one dodgy run or the start of another row back as we’ve seen consistently in the past couple months in the 7/9 day period 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just getting silly now this. Models still going for a 34/35c around Wisbech and the shores of The Wash. Going to feel like a roasting sauna over these parts! 
Saturday then sees a boundary of probably the biggest contrast in airmass temperature I’ve ever seen take battle over this Country! Somewhere is likely to get a copious amount of rain as a result, and maybe some prolific thunderstorms around the warmer parts of the low to the SE. 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking beyond the chaos of the weekend, the upper trough to our nne struggling to dig south next week on the 12z eps mean 

is this just one dodgy run or the start of another row back as we’ve seen consistently in the past couple months in the 7/9 day period 

 

I wouldn’t trust any output at the moment. The modelling since early June has been way off!

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Just getting silly now this. Models still going for a 34/35c around Wisbech and the shores of The Wash. Going to feel like a roasting sauna over these parts! 
Saturday then sees a boundary of probably the biggest contrast in airmass temperature I’ve ever seen take battle over this Country! Somewhere is likely to get a copious amount of rain as a result, and maybe some prolific thunderstorms around the warmer parts of the low to the SE. 

Facinating stuff and exciting from a storm lovers perspective as some mega storms could occur given this temp contrast....however as we know lots of things have to be right at the right time....but with my storm lovers hat on just starting to get a bit excited...

[SqueakheartLW]

Seems the GEM is picking up on more signals for heat next week now with another lifting up of the mean and could also have an early signal for more heat at the end of the month too.

One of the members is going for something rather toasty towards the end, P19 and in fact this member never really gets rid of the heat we get at the end of this week. It just intensifies then relaxes somewhat before another push of heat comes.

Friday June 17th     P19     850hpa temp peak 17.9C     2m temp max peak 32.1C

A toasty day in Scunthorpe with 32.1C modelled on GEM 12z P19 but looks just as hot if not more so in some other parts of England and Wales. This is however a short episode of heat and by the Sunday things are very different on P19

Sunday June 19th     P19     850hpa temp low 9.6C     2m temp max peak 17.9C

Much cooler and fresher by Sunday but the heat is only just over the other side of the channel and on this member 19 soon strikes back again. We see a general rise in temps once more until the next shot of heat peaks on Thursday June 23rd.

 Thursday June 23rd     P19    850hpa temp peak 19.1C     2m temp max peak 33.7C

An even hotter spell than the one modelled for this week with a toasty 33.7C predicted on P19 for Scunthorpe and could be even higher in more favoured locations in the SE. This spell comes to an abrupt end but isn't the last shot of heat on this member P19.

Saturday June 25th     P19     850hpa temp low 8.6C     2m temp max peak 18.3C

Another brief cooldown but not quite as cool as the first one and unlike the first one that is low pressure affected this one is under high pressure instead so much drier and fresher again but the final heat spike is impressive in terms of 850hpa temps anyway.

 Wednesday June 29th     P19     850hpa temp peak 23.3C     2m temp max peak 29.7C

Impressive uppers here but the 2m temps don't really reflect the even warmer uppers in this final spike of heat. This is no doubt due to the heat low and very high chance that this is a humid thundery spike of heat unlike the first two hot spells. This could be a storm fest if it came off.

[Derecho]

This has to be one of the most fascinating periods of model output I can remember and I still think there is scope for major changes in temperatures over runs during the next day or two.

It is the most delicately poised setup and it all depends on that low over the Bay of Biscay. A swift transition to a cool north-westerly now looks off the cards, it looked odd anyway, I always felt a thundery breakdown could develop.

I wouldn't rule out Saturday being the hottest day over southern parts of England, as there are a fair few really hot ensemble members in the EC for example. I think under this scenario the low would be further west with heat pushing further north.

Could be some good thunderstorms if the hot air does make it further north, though the humidity won't be pleasant that is for sure.

Difficult to know what will happen after that! I wouldn't rule out mid 20s on Sunday over the far east of England if that low over the Bay of Biscay does end up further west, yet somewhere close by will be very cool under heavy persistent rain.

Some area though I think will unfortunately see huge rainfall totals through this weekend. A complicated setup.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking at the models I think somewhere in the south may too 32/33c Friday ..and I'm thinking that the South May be very warm also Saturday for much of the day..possibly 27/28c in southeast,before much fresher air moves down associated with the front from the northwest

[stodge]

Late evening all

Certainly expecting my part of East London to be quite toasty on Friday and perhaps Saturday with Sunday a huge contrast.

After that, plenty of uncertainty - I thought we would see, as often happens after a hot spell, some pleasantly warm and settled weather as the ridge comes in from the west but now I'm seeing the ridge further north and the trough remaining over or close to southern Britain with the heat only just to the south and east. Some quite warm air could be advected from the east .

Little conclusive evidence otherwise of a renewed push of heat before the end of the month - there is often a re-set of sorts required after such a "plume" like spell.

[Derecho]

17 minutes ago, stodge said:

Little conclusive evidence otherwise of a renewed push of heat before the end of the month - there is often a re-set of sorts required after such a "plume" like spell.

Brave call at this stage given it's June 14th, indeed the EC does show something plumey at the end of the run!

[Bradley in Kent]

Evening all,  I know it's the GFS max temp, plus an outlier run (12z) and that it hasn't actually happened yet, but wow seeing those unbelievable temps (mid 40s) on a chart so close to home, it's something I've never seen after years of chart watching!

White hot, so hot the colour scale is maxxed out!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Evening all,  I know it's the GFS max temp, plus an outlier run (12z) and that it hasn't actually happened yet, but wow seeing those unbelievable temps (mid 40s) on a chart so close to home, it's something I've never seen after years of chart watching!

White hot, so hot the colour scale is maxxed out!

It's quite astonishing really to see such high temperatures within a few hundred miles from our shores!  Concerning really.....

[Ben Sainsbury]

Both ICON & GFS 18z have both slowed the clearance of the heat on Saturday compared to their 12z counterparts. GFS in particular is quite an improvement, with the 24C isotherm close to the S coast at 2000 on Saturday!

Edited June 14, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[StormChaseUK]

I think the models are over and under doing it wildly.  I don't see how Wales can be 12C and over the Channel 44, 45C .