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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread.  Or, head to the moans and ramps thread.

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Posted by Paul,

Please don't discuss this here (there's comments on the guide if you want to ask a question etc), but obviously in a busy thread like this, it's hard to cater for everyone's needs and wants in terms of the content they want to see. But, for those who want a more curated experience, following members and then keeping up to date with their posts through the activity feed may be a great way to get to the content you want, without having to wade through the content you don't. So, here's a guide

Curate the content you see on the model thread

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

sorry I hope this now removes IMBY suggestions  - this is pontential outcome for most of us when it goes wrong at 120 / 144 as some feared.

 

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted
Just now, MJB said:

Day time temps of 4-6c are rather Decemberish - lets not big this up , the good thing is it's only the start of December , get some reality into the coming week - freeze up it isn't and was never going to be.

You're missing the point.  I never said a deep freeze in any post what I've said of potential. It's 1 run.  Maybe if things are downgrading over the weekend then I'll concede but there could be plenty other opportunities with the current NH profile.  I'm not going to get hung on on this run. If it fails it fails but people aren't looking at the wider signals.  I agree things may look less favorable based on that but there's still plenty to be optimistic about at this moment in time is my point. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Lunchtime Friday on the UKMO is mental, it may have this 🤞 

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fake - theres no way that will happen

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Problem ive seen this over the years when this kinda major change happens on a run its very hard to bring it back again!!!its clear it picked up something that gfs and ukmo didnt!!!

I know.. this phase is over, ECM has doubled down on this mornings run and at such short range we have to accept this phase is over. couple of days rest now I think.. learned loads though these past few days.. thank you 🙂

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted

A new trend ?

To me, it just looks wrong - could be an outlier and will be interesting to see where it sits in the pack . . .

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well that's a kick in the nadgers, make no mistake.  Wow!

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However, we need to see where this sits, could be another major outlier 😬  If not, let's hope the overnight bucks the current trend.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Well at least that run is good for trop waves headed upwards! 

you know that nagging doubt I had that something would pop up out of left field …… just hope that ecm is over reacting to the jet loop headed back west around the ridge and will revert closer to Ukmo - we’ve had ec ops do nuts stuff before but not so often at day 6/7 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, P-M said:

You're missing the point.  I never said a deep freeze in any post what I've said of potential. It's 1 run.  Maybe if things are downgrading over the weekend then I'll concede but there could be plenty other opportunities with the current NH profile.  I'm not going to get hung on on this run. If it fails it fails but people aren't looking at the wider signals.  I agree things may look less favorable based on that but there's still plenty to be optimistic about at this moment in time is my point. 

No No apologies , you didn't say it would be a deep freeze , I am just pointing out we might just end up having average December temps . We really need to see where this sits in the ENS , this current ECM run and blown the GH to bits 

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted (edited)

ECM det's of the last day (3 runs) getting worse for coldies, good if you're after cold rain...

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted

Well, that's going to put anything "noteworthy" cold or snow to bed.

It will get colder and perhaps some snow in favourable areas, but that's all she wrote.

The ECM has picked up a trend and I would probably expert the others to follow.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

EC = Outlier....for shure! 

Cc2w.gif

Not an outlier - moreso the leader of a trend that is gaining momentum. The bigger picture has changed. The west based -NAO has crept in and has increased the Azores strength, pushing the cold north. The GFS is lagging, it'll follow the ECM though. The ECM has lead the way as of late.

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ECM1-192 (44).gif

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

image.gif.ca2bf2ead7a53692adc51c37dddf4299.gifhonestly you lot right now somE of you need to calm yourself right down atleast until we see where this run sits in the ens

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

I wouldn't say thats a change of the "big picture" however. I am using the phase "big picture" as meaning the "overall" theme of a cold pattern. And I think this is where the despcrancy is coming from. Has the synoptics of "how" the cold occurs and the pattenr changed from model to model run and have models changed from where the cold comes from? Of course, I am not disagreeing with that notion. That was never my arguemnt. My arguemnt is that "the big picture" is still showing a cold pattern.

Does the model show a cold pattern in frame I show down below?
ECH1_120kav8.GIF.png

If you can answer with "yes", then that is my arguemnt and I will leave it at that.

I think then we just disagree on 'big picture'. To me, if you replace a massive high to our NE with a massive low that feels like big picture. We can all have different views though which is fine 😀.  

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Wasn't EC on the same dope trip in 2010 when it said no-no to anythin winter'ish`just days before?

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Ok I accept, the ECM largely fails at the cold spell

I had a gut feeling this was coming . When I saw the weatheronline outlook for the week it said by next weekend milder weather will probably make inroads into the south. This afternoon when I mentioned this I was told don’t worry about what is showing. But alas there is a worrying trend. I think what we can say from the charts is that there is no major freeze coming it will be typical December cold no snowballing yet. I could feel the sense of wheels coming off when I looked at European temperatures yes they have been low but a trend is showing them increasing again by next weekend eg Moscow rising to 1 deg when earlier it was minus 8 also Siberia rising to minus 6 when at one point it was minus 18. 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

If anyone thinks that run will actually verify ask yourself the question - have you ever seen anything like that actually happen synoptically?  It’s crazy. 

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted

I thought this time would be different but obviously not. Maybe recording a below freezing temperature is the best I can hope for.

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, MJB said:

No No apologies , you didn't say it would be a deep freeze , I am just pointing out we might just end up having average December temps . We really need to see where this sits in the ENS , this current ECM run and blown the GH to bits 

It's a volatile situation for sure.  But i don't think it looks right even to my untrained eye.  There again it could be and that's the beauty of the weather and this hobby of model watching.  See what happens over the weekend mate. 

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