Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

At least it’s looking dry for the rest of January - not bad cycling weather as long as there’s not much ice on the smaller roads.

[stainesbloke]

A very unexpected snowfall here near Prague overnight, a good couple of inches and everything is covered. Quite strange as it was 7°C yesterday and sunny. Not particularly welcome either as had to walk in it to the station earlier (a good 25 minute fast walk normally). The temperature is a tiny bit above freezing so there’s dripping and some slushiness.

Edited January 18, 2023 by stainesbloke

[Weather-history]

I noticed sunspots have been mentioned in the model thread.

Here's the problem I have with solar activity and the correlation with coldness. How does it square with  winters 1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47 and 1978-79? These winters happened within a year of a solar maximum?

The sunspot mean for January 1979 was 167, not seen a value that high for sometime if I'm correct. That was the last sub-zero CET  January. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Just got up, opened my curtains and it's white outside. It's only a light dusting, but it is something.

[DIS1970]

Had roughly 3/4 cm overnight here in N Wolverhampton, more of an effort from the sky than the football team did on the pitch yesterday evening.

[ribster]

Well some said it was two day wonder, then it was warming up Thurs, then Friday. Looks like 10 days to me, even then it stays close to average. 

[reef]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I noticed sunspots have been mentioned in the model thread.

Here's the problem I have with solar activity and the correlation with coldness. How does it square with  winters 1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47 and 1978-79? These winters happened within a year of a solar maximum?

The sunspot mean for January 1979 was 167, not seen a value that high for sometime if I'm correct. That was the last sub-zero CET  January. 

Its just the latest fad trying to explain why cold winters and decent synoptics are rare these days. There's been many similar over the years.

Unsurprisingly it is often accompanied by a complete failure to notice the elephant in the room.

[SussexSnowman]

Sun and blue skies here. 2oc. That’s more like it. Looking dry and sunny next few days. Love it.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, DIS1970 said:

Had roughly 3/4 cm overnight here in N Wolverhampton, more of an effort from the sky than the football team did on the pitch yesterday evening.

Better than Chelsea’s efforts in recent times. Sack Potter!

2 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

Sun and blue skies here. 2oc. That’s more like it. Looking dry and sunny next few days. Love it.

To be honest, I’ll take this even if we don’t get snow. A cold dry frosty winter with long periods of clear spells would be my ideal set up.

I don’t miss anything about the rain, although it is needed in the winter months, but not 3-4 weeks of it.

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, reef said:

Its just the latest fad trying to explain why cold winters and decent synoptics are rare these days. There's been many similar over the years.

Unsurprisingly it is often accompanied by a complete failure to notice the elephant in the room.

Yep everything except that elephant is responsible. I just ignore all the sun spot posts, not literally, haven't put anyone on ignore for them, they just don't interest me.

Edited January 18, 2023 by alexisj9

[Snowyowl9]

If your looking at sunspots March 1989 was the peak with the best northern lights displays ever seen in m recent times..seen all the way  into africa..That was the highlight of my life seeing that..

And then we had a very hot summer with record temperatures of 32c..

Edited January 18, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[RJBingham]

Still trying to summon an SSW in the MOD thread I see, need to burn more incense  

[summer blizzard]

Decemember Data is in.. 

QBO was +1.2 which suggests we saw a peak during November. It was still the most positive December QBO since 2016. 

MEI was -1.3, a continued weakening, this was the most negative December MEI since 2010. 

AO was a rocking -2.7, the most negative December AO since 2009.

PDO was -2.2, the most negative December PDO since.. 2021. I will need to have time to calculate, but 2022 has certainly seen one of the most negative PDO averages on record. 

 

[matt111]

Best type of winter weather over the next few days, including today, if we can't get snow. Cold and crisp with plenty of sun. Better than the weeks of dull, wet weather we've just had. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by matt111

[RhHh]

20 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

The only good thing about this winter is when it' over. 

Two cold snaps - no snow in Guildford yet again. More snow falls in Cornwall formerly the most 'snow-free' part of the UK, than here as a conducive synoptic set-up never develops. 
Weeks of endless rain and soon as the temperature drops low enough for snow, we can't get a single flake to fall. 

Sunday 11th December was a joke with the snow area moving in an anticlockwise direction around Guildford missing the area by <10 miles and now its northerlies, the most useless synoptic set up for snow here and this follows yesterday's channel depression disappointment and this morning's S.W. snow frustration. Current winter is worse than 1983/1984 - at least there were flurries that year. 

In the nine years after the end of the cold winter era in 1987, there were two reasonable winters (1990/1991 and 1995/1996) and two acceptable winters for snow (1993/1994 and 1996/1997). In a comparable nine year period since the last decent winter (2012/2013) there have been NO reasonable winters and snow only fell in March 2018 (B.F.T.E.) after a horrendous winter of cold rain and let-downs beforehand, February 2019 (which was at Fleet and not Guildford - where I was lucky enough to be to witness the interesting weather for a change) and 24th January 2021. 

Kick in the teeth with another snowless borefest for the rest of this week, especially given the excitement of this time 10 years ago. 

If we can't get a proper cold snap with WIDESPREAD snow then I wish we could get conditions like in the winters of 2018/2019 and last year, mild and dry, so I can at least enjoy my cycling and forget about the rotten weather. Conditions may be boring but at least everyone's missing out in a mild dry set-up and it is easier not to get frustrated yearning for something that no one else is experiencing.  

Understand where you are coming from although we did get about 1 inch in December. Have to face facts and accept that we live in a poor area for snow. 

20 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

The only good thing about this winter is when it' over. 

Two cold snaps - no snow in Guildford yet again. More snow falls in Cornwall formerly the most 'snow-free' part of the UK, than here as a conducive synoptic set-up never develops. 
Weeks of endless rain and soon as the temperature drops low enough for snow, we can't get a single flake to fall. 

Sunday 11th December was a joke with the snow area moving in an anticlockwise direction around Guildford missing the area by <10 miles and now its northerlies, the most useless synoptic set up for snow here and this follows yesterday's channel depression disappointment and this morning's S.W. snow frustration. Current winter is worse than 1983/1984 - at least there were flurries that year. 

In the nine years after the end of the cold winter era in 1987, there were two reasonable winters (1990/1991 and 1995/1996) and two acceptable winters for snow (1993/1994 and 1996/1997). In a comparable nine year period since the last decent winter (2012/2013) there have been NO reasonable winters and snow only fell in March 2018 (B.F.T.E.) after a horrendous winter of cold rain and let-downs beforehand, February 2019 (which was at Fleet and not Guildford - where I was lucky enough to be to witness the interesting weather for a change) and 24th January 2021. 

Kick in the teeth with another snowless borefest for the rest of this week, especially given the excitement of this time 10 years ago. 

If we can't get a proper cold snap with WIDESPREAD snow then I wish we could get conditions like in the winters of 2018/2019 and last year, mild and dry, so I can at least enjoy my cycling and forget about the rotten weather. Conditions may be boring but at least everyone's missing out in a mild dry set-up and it is easier not to get frustrated yearning for something that no one else is experiencing.  

Understand where you are coming from although we did get about 1 inch in December. Have to face facts and accept that we live in a poor area for snow. 

[Sunny76]

46 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Best type of winter weather over the next few days, including today, if we can't get snow. Cold and crisp with plenty of sun. Better than the weeks of dull, wet weather we've just had. 

I would be happy with this set up until March, before the warmer weather takes over again. 

[Penrith Snow]

The snowfall here this week has been bitter/sweat, on the one hand it was a lovely dry snowfall of 7cms followed by severe frost and sunshine which was great, but then it reminds me of what uk winters used to be like and how I miss them.

Before this week I have to go back to the BFTE in 2018 to find a snowfall that lasted more than 24 hours, that was 5 years ago!

I live at over 400feet in Northern England at the same latitude as Nova Scotia but winters now resemble the coast of South West Ireland.

Depressing.

Andy

Edited January 18, 2023 by Penrith Snow

[Bald Eagle]

Just played peek a boo into the mad thread. Clutching at straws sprung to mind, which is good, itmeans aint much happening soon. Talking of soon, the sooner we get into mild the better. Heating bills are unsustainable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

The snowfall here this week has been bitter/sweat, on the one hand it was a lovely dry snowfall of 7cms followed by severe frost and sunshine which was great, but then it reminds me of what uk winters used to be like and how I miss them.

Before this week I have to go back to the BFTE in 2018 to find a snowfall that lasted more than 24 hours, that was 5 years ago!

I live at over 400feet in Northern England at the same latitude as Nova Scotia but winters now resemble the coast of South West Ireland.

Depressing.

Andy

Same up here Andy , we haven't had any snow last winter and this one other than a bit of slush last time and very light covering this time , in 60's to 80's we had snow on the ground every winter, becoming rarer now , even in Scandinavia capitals it's becoming less and less most winters , really sad to be honest the state of the planet we are destroying slowly , God help future generations , depressing as you say 

 

 

 

 

 

[KTtom]

On 15/01/2023 at 15:19, saintkip said:

The worst posters are the I told you so lot. It’s very easy to predict the weather in winter just say mild and wet and you’ve got a 95% chance of being correct.

Sums up the sad state we are in really, mid January and a northerly, perfect conditions and timing for my location to see snow shower after snow shower as the Pembrokeshire Dangler sets up...well the second part worked well but we ended up with rain shower after rain shower...even the hills inland are green !

[Weather Enthusiast91]

10 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:

Just played peek a boo into the mad thread. Clutching at straws sprung to mind, which is good, itmeans aint much happening soon. Talking of soon, the sooner we get into mild the better. Heating bills are unsustainable

 

During the recent weeks of dull wet weather, we've had our heating on just as much as we did during the cold spell we had in December. Proper cold spells with winter sunshine don't usually last long in this country anyway, let alone snow.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[A Face like Thunder]

Heavy snow showers here in the NW of England!

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Heavy snow showers here in the NW of England!

 

[Atmogenic]

i'm hating this cold, though the weather is better with it being dry and sunny, the cold is terrible and the more thought i put in imagining of warmth, the more i'm missing and I can't wait to seeing the first 20c this year

Edited January 19, 2023 by Atmogenic

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Regarding SSWs and their actual impact on our weather ..

Looking further into this, im finding hard to identify just what cold spells following a SSW were down to the SSW . Most Winters have cold spells, some Winters have Easterlies and often they have nothing to do with a SSW, February 1986 is a classic example.

Given that not all cold spells come via a SSW and not all SSWs produce anything, im not sure we can actually identify many that do. I think our perception of SSWs has been tainted rose coloured by 2013 and 2018. These two did deliver quite spectacularly.

But so far, checking the charts post SSW, there no clear indication that a cold spell WAS down to a SSW, and sometimes the Easterlies SSWs are supposed to promote, miss the UK.  The cold spells that im doubtful about are post SSW Northerlies...

This is a good point. 

As much as we think of winters where an SSW had a clear impact (Jan 13, Feb 18), there are plenty of winters in which we already had a 'kind trop'. Winters like 09 and 10 for example had delivered the bulk of their cold already before an SSW, indeed you can argue that in 09, 10, 13, after the initial cold and snowy response, the pattern was probably made worse because all three then saw a pattern change to protracted UK blocking in Feb 13, March 10 and Feb into March 09.

There are definitely winters like 18/19 where it probably saved it from being truly horrific to just very poor.