Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Purga]

Kent may get a fleeting flake

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

53 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Never take a chart in isolation, but this one raises an eyebrow…

And this one most definitely raises both!…

That sort of movement upwards at 30mb is often a precursor to much more interesting weather to follow. We will see.

 

 

Isn’t it amazing how the temperatures higher up tend to stay below average but on the ground they’re usually above average these days ?

[johnholmes]

Some years ago I did some amateur  studies on this and about 65% did show a cold spell following. For the life of me I cannot remember the average number of days, nor can I find the damned article I put somewhere 'safe'.

 

[minus10]

I'd take this..

....followed by this..

...at least it would be dry and pleasant with the chance of colder weather ...also some variation instead of just hp to south and lp to north....but as we all know this is just one of the gfs 's box of variations on a theme in the weather cupboard with a different one next run..

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 nor can I find the damned article I put somewhere 'safe'.

 

Have you checked behind the sofa?

[johnholmes]

EE, even I am not that daft.

I have a hazy idea of 15-25 days being the time scale?

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Maybe not popular but pretty much correct (imo).

 

Id sooner be accurate than popular, however i run the risk of being neither!

[Daniel*]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Im not going to win any popularity points with this post, lol..
I cant see a scandinavian high establishing, and whilst the anomalies under estimated the building high by early feb, it doesnt mean a scandi high is likely IMHO.

As i see it, things are still likely to turn stormy, with unsettled westerlies. With the TPV driving extreme cold out of Northern Canada over the North Atlantic where not only will it phase with TM air, its crossing SSTs with quite a +ive anomaly. imho thats a recipe for cyclogenesis and a stormy, strong jet.

It’s trouble when older baselines are used. The Gulf Stream looks warm but actually generally Atlantic SSTs are not that mild the light yellow (below) is 0-1C above average and this is 1979-2000. If we were to use 1991-2020 it would be pretty close to average. I don’t see a compelling signal imo on SSTs alone there’s not really much of a north-south gradient. 

 

I also have a graph to illustrate nothing unusual latest value +0.3C in North Atlantic in autumn they were extremely mild at one point the anomaly was +1.6C or something silly was record breaking.

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Daniel*

[Gowon]

The UKMO is an interesting option at 168 - it's totally different to the other two which are very similar.

  

[E17boy]

WINTERS ORGANISATION HEAD OFFICE  UPDATE TO STAFF

As you all are already aware we are more than halfway through our season for delivery. From the the CEO viiew the message has been mixed for this season.

Firstly we had some good cold orders from our coldies in December and to some extent our review shows that some seasonal cold got delivered. Some of our customers had the extra bonus of receiving a first class service which included snow. 

However nearer Christmas fortunes in our profits from cold delivery began to decline when we began to face more competition from our competitor the Atlantic which bought flooding with its mild and rain.  This meant our cold loving customers were dishearten and began to loose faith in us returning to the market

Unfortunately January sales have not picked up either and our partner SSW has also decided to back away so joint delivery looked unlikely. Our reliance on Mr high pressure to serve the northern market had not materialised either down to lack of logistics to move its position north and also Mr PV holding a strong market position in the north had not helped either.

With the season slowly slipping away we do hope that February will provide another opportunity for us to grab the coldie market and make up for the low recent delivery. We now hope that Mr high pressure will find space in the northern market hence putting pressure on Mr PV to move away.  We are in talks at the moment with our Far Eastern contacts in Siberia and are trying to sign a contract for Mr East wind to help us with his strategy in delivering our cold goods with the added value of snow .

We hope to provide another update in the coming weeks and are optimistic sales in the coldie market will pick up. 
 

We hope ECM, GFS, ICON , GEM and the PUB RUN  will all be reviewing their output to help us to get the sales for the remaining season .

REGARDS ALL FROM WINTER MANGEMENT  AND CEO 

 

 

[Gowon]

The high never really goes away on the GFS which is nice for dry, chilly weather at least.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The high never really goes away on the GFS which is nice for dry, chilly weather at least.

And chilly it is at the moment.

[January Snowstorm]

17 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The high never really goes away on the GFS which is nice for dry, chilly weather at least.

Indeed and when it does go it will be Spring! Looking very likely now that we will have a winter without one named storm! Aside from lack of snow this is remarkable 

[Drifter]

33 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The UKMO is an interesting option at 168 - it's totally different to the other two which are very similar.

  

Yes I think we could turn cold very soon after this. 

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Yes I think we could turn cold very soon after this. 

Could do, but at least it's another option if it's correct.

[Cuban Zebra]

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

It's useful weather for people that have to work outside though.

[jethro]

3 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's useful weather for people that have to work outside though.

And down in the soggy south west, we're still drying out with lots of water logged fields around. I welcome anything that isn't wet, warm or cold matters not, merely hoping for dry.

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's useful weather for people that have to work outside though.

Yes i have to say that with my exciting weather hat on it is indeed totally dull however with my working outside hat it is just fine...just depends on which hat i am wearing on any particular day

...think 'benign crud' should be a meteorlogical term though....outlook..."there will be prolonged periods of benign crud interspersed with short spells of interesting drizzle"

[phil nw.]

Yes the only positive from the gfs/ukmo 12z runs is the predominantly dry outlook with the high staying around.

It 's remains just too far south to give any chance of some cold off the continent.If anything the trend to move it's centre east towards France means the jet backs more south westerly thus reducing the chances of even the brief colder shots from pm air that will give us a glancing visit early next week.

Our Balkan friends look to do well out of this pattern though if cold is their thing.

I wish i could find something to cheer us coldies up but with this pattern there is very little to shout about- very average temps maybe even milder at times and with the cloud mixing in from the Atlantic even frosts will be very patchy.

[mulzy]

30 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

If we can’t get snow then this is good enough.  Who wants wind and rain?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

EE, even I am not that daft.

I have a hazy idea of 15-25 days being the time scale?

I remember you doing this, it was probably around 4 years ago I think ? I remember all of us been completly obsessed on it all, chiono is the strat king I think head and shoulders above most 

[lassie23]

45 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

Sums up the UK this winter, whilst other countries get extreme weather we get extreme nothingness

[KTtom]

58 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

If im not getting snow it'll do me, im sure there are many homeowners (storms) and those who want to get out (constant rain) who are happy with 'nothing'

Edited January 28, 2023 by KTtom

[Gowon]

UKMO is still on it's own - ECM at 120