Model Output Discussion - Into February

[icykev]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Absolutely but if three ops find the same amplification unexpectedly…… ten mins or so 

Do you think this is strat related blue? 

Do you also know if @sheikhy is alright? Haven't heard from him in a while?

Thanks 

[Stuie]

Oh, this is a twist to the other models, nope to Scandi HP.

 

Edit: Couple of interesting ridges to what, promote a northerly?

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Stuie W

[Daniel*]

Just now, Stuie W said:

Oh, this is a twist to the other models, nope to Scandi HP.

 

No model is showing a Scandi high as early as that, note the nose of heights. Let’s wait and see where it ends up! 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Oh, this is a twist to the other models, nope to Scandi HP.

 

I wonder if next frame would have a ridge up to Greenland as the low on top moves west though. This time scale is not sorted yet.

[Daniel*]

ECM t144 is more amplified than 00z look to WNW.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

ECM t144 is more amplified than 00z look to WNW.

It's more like the GFS, but let's see what happens

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No model is showing a Scandi high as early as that, note the nose of heights. Let’s wait and see where it ends up! 

No Scandi high. It was less amplified at that timescale than any other.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM t144 is more amplified than 00z look to WNW.

Looks the same to me, remember the 12h time difference, move the lowto the east of the high to on top, and I think the pattern here would be the same?

[northwestsnow]

 

Looks to be too much northern arm energy again but it's a better offering than 00z just need things backing west a bit

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

No Scandi high. It was less amplified at that timescale than any other.

I don’t follow what you’re saying little is separating ECM from GFS.

 

Very clear to see it’s more amplified than morning run.

[northwestsnow]

Not great.

damn the PV.

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t follow what you’re saying little is separating ECM from GFS.

 

Very clear to see it’s more amplified than morning run.

Yep more amplified, not too much in the Scandi direction at day 8. For now, to me, no Scandi HP yet.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Stuie W

[Ali1977]

The GEM took 2 rounds of WAA to get set for an easterly at 240, let’s see if ECM takes more WAA heading NE from the Atlantic at 216!! 

[Stuie]

The T216 chart, although FI would tie in with the AO. The US escaping a big plunge, northern US for days have shown colder air.

Question is, where does this bulk of cold go?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The control run seems to have had one too many wines at the Sunday roast!

Edited January 29, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[nick sussex]

No ridge will survive that rounded PV blob .

The ECM is better than this morning and does at least try and take the jet more se by day ten but we need to see these better outputs at that point count down .

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

No ridge will survive that rounded PV blob .

The ECM is better than this morning and does at least try and take the jet more se by day ten but we need to see these better outputs at that point count down .

 

Where is it going Nick? The blob that is.

[Gowon]

On 28/01/2023 at 16:39, Gowon said:

The UKMO is an interesting option at 168 - it's totally different to the other two which are very similar.

  

My post from yesterday which shows the UKMO was the first to amplify the area around Greenland 

Will it triumph in this complex situation over the ECM?

[Allseasons-Si]

I think there is wriggle room here upto day ten on the ECM cos it does show a weak block to our E/NE circled red which wasn't there on this mornings run and we are starting to see the tpv hit a brick wall(black line) and may not get past the UK,if this is the case then this block may force trough disruption SE(white arrow)

all just speculative stuff ATM and will be interesting how this goes.

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Where is it going Nick? The blob that is.

It looks like it weakens and more energy starts to head se towards day ten.

The best output in terms of the UK  is the UKMO as it has some forcing on the blob from the ne but you’d still need a westwards correction and a bigger gap between the upstream trough and the low to the ne .

We still need a big leap  to deliver anything within day ten but tonight’s outputs don’t need Moses to part the Red Sea ! 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

53 minutes ago, icykev said:

Do you think this is strat related blue? 

Do you also know if @sheikhy is alright? Haven't heard from him in a while?

Thanks 

No idea to both questions kev. But I doubt it’s strat related 

[Gowon]

The ECM is cold at day 10 with cold air heading down from the NW

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It looks like it weakens and more energy starts to head se towards day ten .

The best output in terms of the UK  is the UKMO as it has some forcing on the blob from the ne but you’d still need a westwards correction and a bigger gap between the upstream trough and the low to the ne .

We still need a big leap  to deliver anything within day ten but tonight’s outputs don’t need Moses to part the Red Sea ! 

 

 

In a bizarre way, it could just sit, US misses, we miss, Canada frozen.

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

No ridge will survive that rounded PV blob .

The ECM is better than this morning and does at least try and take the jet more se by day ten but we need to see this better outputs at that point count down .

 

Yes that's one hell of blob Nick.

Frustrating to see the ridging attempts being continually thwarted.

I hope that the displacement higher up will maybe drag that pv away eventually as the spv gets pushed around and zonal winds decrease.

It's always difficult to work out the effects of a displaced strat.vortex on the 500hPa pattern so it's a straw to clutch rather than expectation.

[icykev]

21 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The control run seems to have had one too many wines at the Sunday roast!

There is a few that follow though around the 7th