Model Output Discussion - Into February

[SLEETY]

no surprise feb not looking like any cold weather arriving.

really poor outlook for cold again.

[January Snowstorm]

The charts are pretty grim really right out to 2nd week of February. I guess anything can happen after that and we still have snow chances for another month at least. Storm Emma landed here on 1st March and gave more snow and drifting than I had seen for 50 years.

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

no surprise feb not looking like any cold weather arriving.

really poor outlook for cold again.

First half of February is a write off. Only leaves us 2 weeks of winter 'proper' and then whatever meteorological spring can throw at us. 

[nick sussex]

Not often you see such a short distance between the 0c 850 line and -8 .

The ECM does its best to avoid the UK with that deeper cold at day 7!

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Exactly! They say the Gulf Stream is responsible for our relatively mild winters...personally I think its Greenland...without sounding like a stuck record, no chance of anything noteworthy here while we have Purpleland to the NW.

I must check the maps for the period 1970-1988 and also 1947/63, 2010.  Maybe Greenland dipped below the ocean in those years ….

[Purga]

All roads lead to Barty eventually this a.m.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Really failing to see reasons to be disheartened with the modelling 

 

 

 

 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Really failing to see reasons to be disheartened with the modelling 

 

 

 

 

I see we're back to cherry picking the coldest GFS ensemble members at day 15 to show promise 

Literally no point in posting that when you've got this chart at the same timeframe at the total opposite end of the ensemble spectrum.



Latest MetO thoughts for the second half of February:

Monday 13 Feb - Monday 27 Feb

While uncertain, a continuation of the regional divide between the north and south is expected as the broad theme for this period. Unsettled conditions are more likely to dominate in the north while the south remains settled and drier. A spell of more widely spread wet and windy weather is likely to persist for several days across all areas, although wettest conditions will focus in the west. Temperatures are most likely to remain around average or above.'

There simply isn't a signal for anything substantially cold at the moment. That could change going forward of course.

 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Really failing to see reasons to be disheartened with the modelling 

 

 

 

 

There a v few decent eps members out to day 15.  A residual three or four in each suite. If the gefs and geps are offering a much better percentage then another cold spell remains possible week 2 into 3. But we could do with the eps at least recognising with another few members that it’s possible. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

As we get very close to approaching the following month of February, let’s do, as usual, ensure to keep things friendly in here please and respect other people’s opinions and stuff. 

The dungeon is always open ready to throw the mischief-makers into. Don’t be one of them. 

Any off topic or rotten posts do feel free to report them to the mods and admins, and we’ll get on the case as soon as we possibly can. Cheers all!

While I haven’t looked at the models in a while, I do hope February will bring us a good variety of weather for various weather fans down to snow, windstorms, calm sunny and/or frosty days and, some, a spot of early(ish) Spring warmth.

Edited January 30, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I must check the maps for the period 1970-1988 and also 1947/63, 2010.  Maybe Greenland dipped below the ocean in those years ….

Really..maybe you can check to see if the Jet stream was still running as you have so much time....

 

My point, as I'm sure you were well aware is the profile around Greenland was a little different!

[Cambrian]

I would love to see a Scandinavian high / cold easterly setup sometime in February. It would be a great way to round off what has been a reasonably good winter (well, so much better than last winter!) and is a fascinating synoptic in itself. 

However, for that, I guess we’d be looking for higher pressure around day 10-12 in the middle of Finland, like Oulu - 0z ECM ensemble mean 1016mb, range (ignoring flying outliers) 976-1035mb; 0z GFS ensemble mean 1023mb, range 996-1048mb….

 

than say, for the south of France, or better still, Monaco (I’ve got all my pennies saved up in a bottle and fancy a go on the one arm bandits) - 0z ECM mean 1026mb, range 1002-1040mb; 0z GFS mean 1028mb, range 1010-1041mb (as is often the case GFS has wider spreads)

 

So I guess we’ll keep looking, and so we should, because if an easterly is going to turn up, it’s likely to land in quite suddenly on the models, but on balance looking at the ensembles right now, it’s far from there at the moment. 

Tellingly, here in the UK, like for the seething nightlife megacity of Builth Wells for example, at day 10-12, 0z ECM mean, 1024mb and falling away, 0z GFS mean 1026mb also falling away, so pressure just a bit lower than Monaco. 

 

 

So all subject to change of course at the drop of a hat, but for now, looking more than likely at a nice quiet period of continental anticyclonic weather, with temperatures close to average, to take us through to the middle of February. And that for me is good enough! Have a lovely day. 

[Ali1977]

GFS has a better go at building a Scandy high at day 11 - just a few hundred miles out
Certainly a better run though, and the run may get better. Over to the ens to see if we can increase on the members showing something colder 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

Morning all!

ECM clusters today, starting T120-T168:

Main area of difference is the amplification of the Atlantic ridge in this timeframe, cluster 1 the most, cluster 3 the least.

T192-T240:

The first three don’t look very inspiring but the last two (15 members between them) show the scandi high option, particularly cluster 5.

T264+:

These look better than they actually are, as the +NAO cluster 1 is the majority with 19 members.  Again cluster 5 looks good, but not very well supported with 6 members.

The spread indicates the area of uncertainty (T240):

So, on paper there is a chance, maybe 20% at best, of something colder in the 15 day timeframe, but imo it is unlikely, and the scandi high runs are probably a modelling mirage!  

Longer term, two things should help, the ‘flushed down’ westerlies from the strat should dissipate in some sense, which means we might actually see some benefit then from the weaker vortex that remains (new minor warmings showing on 15 day timescale on GFS).  Secondly, we might get some assistance from the MJO which at present just seems to be farting around in Phase 3 - and in my experience it is no use to man or beast in the Indian Ocean.  With the time taken to get to favourable phases, plus a 10 day lag, that would be tail end of Feb or into March now.  

[seaside boy]

So we all need cheering up. Just take a quick look at this...So near yet so far.

But not far from the ItAlian sun spot of rimmini.

Hope mods leave it ...just for a little while, to cheer us up 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Really..maybe you can check to see if the Jet stream was still running as you have so much time....

 

My point, as I'm sure you were well aware is the profile around Greenland was a little different!

That’s not how your original post read 

you were noting that two geographic features are involved in our difficulty to see deep winter cold 

one is the gulf stream and the other the v large Arctic island of Greenland (which attracts the pv) 

if you were referring to the current tpv profile around Greenland then I missunderstood you …..

[bluearmy]

06z gefs mean opens up the euro ridge to the polar ridge for the first time at day 8 onwards 

[snowray]

Anom's have in fact improved with each run since yesterday. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z gefs mean opens up the euro ridge to the polar ridge for the first time at day 8 onwards 

Was just browsing through the set, maybe something to watch for later on the 12z runs, not much consistency run to run at the moment though 

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Was just browsing through the set, maybe something to watch for later on the 12z runs, not much consistency run to run at the moment though 

Looking more like where I think we will end up in a few weeks, just expect less pv on the west side. Third one is the best.

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Looking more like where I think we will end up in a few weeks, just expect less pv on the west side. Third one is the best.

Yes we need to see some sort of undercut, unfortunately as usual all the energy wants to go over the top of the high and the HP inevitably sinks.

Edited January 30, 2023 by snowray

[SLEETY]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

First half of February is a write off. Only leaves us 2 weeks of winter 'proper' and then whatever meteorological spring can throw at us. 

We have seen more snow in march here since 2010 then any of the so-called winter months,how pathetic is that.

Looking like could be the same this year.

[minus10]

Uncertainty being the word again with the gfes6z extended..

...a wide spread with a few ens well below minus 10 850s in latter third of run reflecting the easterly perhaps .  The mean settling back on the long term mean now...this has been a trend to move it back over last couple of runs..problem is...will it continue...

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

That’s not how your original post read 

you were noting that two geographic features are involved in our difficulty to see deep winter cold 

one is the gulf stream and the other the v large Arctic island of Greenland (which attracts the pv) 

if you were referring to the current tpv profile around Greenland then I missunderstood you …..

yes, my point, whilst trying to add a miniscule bit of humour on a Monday morning was that without Greenland the TPV would likely to be more mobile and not stuck permanently to our NW throughout the winter months driving our weather. 

[LRD]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Anom's have in fact improved with each run since yesterday. 

 

Apologies if this is a daft question and the answer is blindingly obvious but are there surface and/or 850 temp anomaly charts to accompany these - what I feel are - misleading pressure charts? I know EC46 has something along those lines but I don't think I have ever seen one for the everyday model output. Granted I've not looked very hard