Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Stuie]

Last view of models for today. I read days ago where someone said this arctic HP is doing us no favours. That HP still remains.

 

Edit: It is bloody stubborn, has been on and off for weeks.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Stuie W

[Gowon]

11 minutes ago, icykev said:

There is a few that follow though around the 7th

About two of them and they quickly abandon him after a few days

[icykev]

We shall see maybe its a trend

Fits about right to me

Looking to see them 850s in London from the 14th so no sway seeing Oslo warmer as the cold should come from slightly further south east. A good sign nonetheless

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by icykev
Looking east

[Bricriu]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Screams Euro High as far as it goes which is most of February!

Towel is at the ready but not quite thrown in!

The only crumb of comfort i have with this update is they were fairly bullish about a returned to unsettled conditions by early February this time last week. I am not saying we will get a a bitter cold easterly, but who knows what they might be saying this time next week.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Bricriu

[bluearmy]

Eps suite looks meh ……

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The control run seems to have had one too many wines at the Sunday roast!

Why are you looking at Norway, although it will probably look similar here.

[Don]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps suite looks meh ……

No surprises there.....

[alexisj9]

Here's the 12z in East Kent, just to highlight, yet another rogue run going cold on the 4/5. It keeps happening, I don't expect the main runs to flip, but it's rare to see such a huge outlier that close, on its own. Keeps happening though.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here we go...

[snowray]

Not too dissimilar to the 12z control, could there finally be light at the end of the tunnel for February I wonder? 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

This is good so far from the gfs,...1050mb high over Scandi and trough elongating south in the Atlantic.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is good so far from the gfs,...1050mb high over Scandi and trough elongating south in the Atlantic.

GFS has been playing around with scandi height development in its far reaches on many a run in recent days, is it spotting the trend just not quite right with the timescales I wonder.. such a deep PV to the NW may well eject energy SE with elongated trough - this seems the most likely to route to anything colder, that or trough disruption. What is become quite clear is we are not about to be at the mercy of atlantic westerly onslaught.

[Don]

32 minutes ago, snowray said:

Not too dissimilar to the 12z control, could there finally be light at the end of the tunnel for February I wonder? 

Possibly but more likely not until well into the second half of the month?

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Eps suite looks meh ……

I don't agree with your seeming dispondency. I think there's enough fuel in the tank to lead to some significant upgrades in the near future. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't agree with your seeming dispondency. I think there's enough fuel in the tank to lead to some significant upgrades in the near future. 

Always a good sign when you return! 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't agree with your seeming dispondency. I think there's enough fuel in the tank to lead to some significant upgrades in the near future. 

not sure it was despondency, just commenting on a particular suite, compared to GEFS 12z, i think the analysis was correct.

[lassie23]

Things are looking good for March.

[Geordiesnow]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't agree with your seeming dispondency. I think there's enough fuel in the tank to lead to some significant upgrades in the near future. 

One of those where the ensembles show slight tweeks in the short term could have big changes longer term but apart from the odd GFS FI run, it looks a longshore and the   most likely outcome is the flatter pattern sadly.

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, Don said:

Possibly but more likely not until well into the second half of the month?

I'd be happy with that, just take a look at them juicy -32c uppers in the east, we often say that there's not much cold air on the continent, there would be if anything like this were to verify.

Edited January 29, 2023 by snowray

[Daniel*]

After trying to sleep I’m up with fever UKMO looking best this morning.

 

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

After trying to sleep I’m up with fever UKMO looking best this morning.

 

Not bad.

The output is better in the other models overall with a more vertical wedge around 168h over the UK a la UKMO.

GFS Op might be flatter but its ensembles are  moving toward a more amplified pattern developing.

ECM has given little hope lately so let's hope it can do a bit better this morning.

[feb1991blizzard]

i'll have a 16 please.

[joggs]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here we go...

Yes,big PV over Greenland. Not good if you're a coldie( myself included).

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't agree with your seeming dispondency. I think there's enough fuel in the tank to lead to some significant upgrades in the near future. 

See below 

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not sure it was despondency, just commenting on a particular suite, compared to GEFS 12z, i think the analysis was correct.

 

[KTtom]

19 minutes ago, joggs said:

Yes,big PV over Greenland. Not good if you're a coldie( myself included).

Exactly! They say the Gulf Stream is responsible for our relatively mild winters...personally I think its Greenland...without sounding like a stuck record, no chance of anything noteworthy here while we have Purpleland to the NW.

Edited January 30, 2023 by KTtom