Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[northwestsnow]

00z runs not offering much joy again.

Perhaps hints of a breakdown of those horrid heights towards Greenland by day 10 ..

There is an article on the sky news website via metoffice suggesting any hot weather is likely to be mid August...

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

00z runs not offering much joy again.

Perhaps hints of a breakdown of those horrid heights towards Greenland by day 10 ..

There is an article on the sky news website via metoffice suggesting any hot weather is likely to be mid August...

I hope we can do a bit better than that.  I imagine the Met Office are saying that because the models are saying that - I’ve rarely if ever seen them say anything long range that isn’t evidenced by output from the long range models that we can see.

ECM 46 latest on regimes (last 6 runs):

With red (Scandi block) out of the question completely until pretty much the turn of the month, and a while beyond before red is the largest signal, it is difficult to see much in the way of winds from the south quadrant for a while.

We have to hope the AAM resurgence promotes a change that the models are not currently seeing the ramifications of.  Becoming a long hard slog this July, weather wise.  

Edited July 17, 2023 by Mike Poole

[JayAlmeida]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

00z runs not offering much joy again.

Perhaps hints of a breakdown of those horrid heights towards Greenland by day 10 ..

There is an article on the sky news website via metoffice suggesting any hot weather is likely to be mid August...

With AAM on the rise from now until the beginning of August I would expect a positive response from around the 26th of July. It looks like AAM will plateau or fall again from August 1st so things may have actually started to turn unsettled again by mid August.

If you look at the charts provided by @MattH the current weather pattern correlates well with trajectory of the AAM.

Just have to wait and see though.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

With AAM on the rise from now until the beginning of August I would expect a positive response from around the 26th of July. It looks like AAM will plateau or fall again from August 1st so things may have actually started to turn unsettled again by mid August.

If you look at the charts provided by @MattH the current weather pattern correlates well with trajectory of the AAM.

Just have to wait and see though.

Indeed - this said image that @MattH posted in the model highlights thread. Shows July has been exposed to a falling and low AAM regime, which has helped promote troughing in our neck of the woods. As this now sharply starts to rise again, we should hopefully start to see this pattern move towards the very end of the month and into August. Trough dropping back into the Atlantic and a ridge ahead of it into western Europe again?

[johnholmes]

My update with the NOAA 500 mb anomaly charts

Sunday 16 July

Written Monday morning

Little change on the 6-10 on Sunday evening from the Saturday output or indeed for several days. A very slight increase in contour heights, very slight changes in the main trough position but still any contours over the UK and northern France still remain with sources in polar regions. Not until over central/southern France is any contour from a region south of these cold areas. The ridging first shown 2-3 days ago in the south Greenland area still there. I believe this is as a result of changes about 3-4 days ago in the far west, (eastern Pacific) as a ridge-trough set up in that area from what had been a rather flabby westerly flow into the far west of n America.The 8-14’s are not that different,

So no major surface weather changes seem likely, keeping the current weather pattern of the past few days.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

No change today from the unsettled summer, looks like anything resembling summer is like looking for gold at the end of the rainbow!

Edited July 17, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[northwestsnow]

I'm a bit more upbeat after reading Matts post , I think we can safely bin the next 10 days do all eyes on day 10 + to look out for evidence in a change in the  NWP..

 

 

When folk down south wonder what the fuss is avout up North ,this is the kind of skies on offer up here currently.

 

[Uncle_Barty]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Many of the best summers have two great months and one more average one. I think having a terrible month like this will tarnish this summer, regardless of what August produces.

It's the repeated weekend lows and the resulting ruining or mass cancellation of outdoor events that will taint this month most. It looks like we will have another low this weekend - 4th one in a row.

[Man With Beard]

It's telling that I keep looking for tentative signs at D15 ... there's not much else to look at in terms of summer weather

Anyway, as with the previous days, the D15 mean on the ECM keeps hinting that we could get a change. Interestingly, though, it's not punting for the change that the teleconnections appear to support? Instead of pulling the trough westwards, this morning it tries to bring the Azores High towards us by pushing the trough eastwards instead. The mean is fairly representative of the individual members I looked at, obviously with more settled/less settled variations:

[TSNWK]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's telling that I keep looking for tentative signs at D15 ... there's not much else to look at in terms of summer weather

Anyway, as with the previous days, the D15 mean on the ECM keeps hinting that we could get a change. Interestingly, though, it's not punting for the change that the teleconnections appear to support? Instead of pulling the trough westwards, this morning it tries to bring the Azores High towards us by pushing the trough eastwards instead. The mean is fairly representative of the individual members I looked at, obviously with more settled/less settled variations:

Fingers crossed.. I remain unconvinced with teleconnections too many variables and chaos to impact on the teleconnections that occur on the other side of the globe followed by a  several week lag time. Personally II  believe that we are limited to about 2 weeks forecasting at broadbrush annonimies level with detail within that framework.  Aything else in my view  is theory all be it substantial that is subject to chaos 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by TSNWK

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Fingers crossed.. I'm done with teleconnections too many variables and chaos to impact on the teleconnections that occur on the other side of the globe followed by a  several week lag time.

 

And if one ignores all the teleconnections, what is one left with, apart from 'too many variables and chaos'? Nah, I think I'll carry on paying attention to the TCs. 

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I have to agree with this- this IS the peak of summer now with the days still long and the sun still at its strongest. August just isn't quite the same- especially the 2nd half of the month.

 

Exactly this....... 2nd half of August is Autumnal.. not so much weather wise but in nature... swifts have gone, NLCs gone, harvest, longer nights... and as i said, my scented plants are in bloom NOW.
Summer for me isnt just about heat/sun, the banquet that is Summer has far more to offer .

[TwisterGirl81]

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Many of the best summers have two great months and one more average one. I think having a terrible month like this will tarnish this summer, regardless of what August produces.

True but we had overall a poor spring (cool, dull and some months were very wet)  apart from the last two weeks of May, eastern areas had to wait until June so many of us have only had about 7 weeks of warm sunny weather, eastern areas maybe only 4 weeks.  I think that's why many are frustrated and hoping August balances things out.

Edited July 17, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[danm]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Indeed - this said image that @MattH posted in the model highlights thread. Shows July has been exposed to a falling and low AAM regime, which has helped promote troughing in our neck of the woods. As this now sharply starts to rise again, we should hopefully start to see this pattern move towards the very end of the month and into August. Trough dropping back into the Atlantic and a ridge ahead of it into western Europe again?

This is the hope. I think it's safe to say that July is unlikely to provide us with a significant warm up, apart from perhaps at the very end of the month. 

August can still be an excellent month. I'd still class the first half of August as "peak Summer", along with the second half of July. We had our UK record temperatures from 1990 and 2003 both fall in August. In recent years we've had long stretches of 30c+ weather in August - 6 days in a row above 33c in Aug 2020. 5 days in a row above 30c last August. 

Looking at the models from this morning, there isn't really anything to hang our hats on from a NWP perspective. It looks a little better for the next few days before things seem to turn more unsettled again this weekend. Beyond that it continues to look changeable with brief ridges followed by troughs. Not good at all for the time of year. 

However, with AAM rising sharply we may start to see better output showing up at quite short notice. So every hope that the new month brings a return of Summer.

[danm]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

It's telling that I keep looking for tentative signs at D15 ... there's not much else to look at in terms of summer weather

Anyway, as with the previous days, the D15 mean on the ECM keeps hinting that we could get a change. Interestingly, though, it's not punting for the change that the teleconnections appear to support? Instead of pulling the trough westwards, this morning it tries to bring the Azores High towards us by pushing the trough eastwards instead. The mean is fairly representative of the individual members I looked at, obviously with more settled/less settled variations:

Personally I'd much prefer a strong build of the Azores high towards us rather than a low pulling west. The former could lead to more sustained dry, sunny and warm weather whereas the latter can bring hot plumes but is much more of a fragile set up synoptically. The last thing we want is a hot couple of days followed by a week of wet, unsettled weather. 

[terrier]

Just when you think things couldn’t get much worse the GFS06Z throws out another absolute horrible run. 

[Scorcher]

51 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Exactly this....... 2nd half of August is Autumnal.. not so much weather wise but in nature... swifts have gone, NLCs gone, harvest, longer nights... and as i said, my scented plants are in bloom NOW.
Summer for me isnt just about heat/sun, the banquet that is Summer has far more to offer .

Supposedly the ancient Britons saw the transition to autumn happening sometime in the 2nd half of August- of course they went by the sun and changes vegetation as opposed to any scientific definition of summer starting and ending at the start/conclusion of calendar months.

[Earthshine]

Bloody hell.  Had better weather back in February!

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Supposedly the ancient Britons saw the transition to autumn happening sometime in the 2nd half of August- of course they went by the sun and changes vegetation as opposed to any scientific definition of summer starting and ending at the start/conclusion of calendar months.

Aye. But ancient Britons weren't glued to the GFS 24/7! 

[mushymanrob]

41 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Supposedly the ancient Britons saw the transition to autumn happening sometime in the 2nd half of August- of course they went by the sun and changes vegetation as opposed to any scientific definition of summer starting and ending at the start/conclusion of calendar months.

............. Before we started making seasons "official" they were dictated by daylength... At least up into Saxon times , Spring early Feb- Early may, Summer early May - early August, Autumn early August - early November and Winter early November - early Feb. That fits far better with nature and explains why midsummers day is only 3 days after "the official" start of Summer... official my "r s"

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm a bit more upbeat after reading Matts post , I think we can safely bin the next 10 days do all eyes on day 10 + to look out for evidence in a change in the  NWP..

 

 

When folk down south wonder what the fuss is avout up North ,this is the kind of skies on offer up here currently.

 

Mine looks the same right now, it's the tail end of a storm though.

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

Aye. But ancient Britons weren't glued to the GFS 24/7! 

Checking every model output run is as masochistic as playing Mr Bobby's eponymous No.1 single on repeat at the moment.

Edited July 17, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Mine looks the same right now, it's the tail end of a storm though.

No idea how it’s happened because I’ve banned myself from looking at output, but it’s been a dry sunny day here

[Bats32]

59 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Checking every model output run is as masochistic as playing Mr Bobby's eponymous No.1 single on repeat at the moment.

Nevermind ever run, I'm examine every ensemble member!

[Mcconnor8]

Edited July 17, 2023 by Mcconnor8