Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[JayAlmeida]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

According to this chart, the MJO has been in the circle of doom since at least June 10th, so i cannot see any forcing from the MJO - which in itself may be a contributory factor..

So stuck in circle of doom = summer over

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

Looks like everywhere but the SE will be below average next week again for the 3rd week running looking at the GFS 00z.

Not seen more than a day or so of temps at or above 20c for a while now and thats not changing anytime soon.

Haven't looked at a chart since Monday and nothing has really changed in the meantime.

Feels like groundhog day

It's below average by a few degrees in the south east too, seeing as 24/25c is about average for there in July

Edited July 21, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Tamara]

15 hours ago, pyrotech said:

The models are showing exactly what you would expect them to show. This unsettled period has been on the cards and shown by the MJO prediction.

We will see an improvement as the MJO will go into phase 6 early August so around 10th of August high pressure is highly likely around North West Europe. 

 

I am quite surprised at some of the more seasoned posters on here as they understand the MJO.

This is a main driver of our weather and watch the models respond to this as we head towards August.

We have been in the wrong phases and in the Circle of death for July and finally looking to break free with the 10 - 14 day lag for us in UK

 

Its been said many many times that it is not as simple as taking the MJO in isolation to gauge weather patterns over a period of time. The MJO is just one part of the total global aggregate wind flow budget. Consideration of the extra tropics is required to gauge the full picture - as propagation of tropical convection propagates between the tropics>extra tropics and there is no linear progression as the two do not always interact equally.

Late Spring & early summer did see a harmonious wind-flow signal between tropics & extra tropics with vast amounts of +AAM anomalies within the entire aggregate atmospheric circulation. The May surging peak in global +ve AAM lagged the feedbacks for a  4 to 6 week period.

So the late Spring inertia provided the platform that led to the very anticyclonic wavebreaking pattern in June in N Europe.

Since then, it is true that tropical convection went in to a lull period. This was anticipated - but what was not anticipated was the more profound effect than was expected that this had within the extra tropical circulation and the amount of -ve inertia c/o strong uptick in trade winds at, and east of the dateline in the Pacific that scrubbed out so much of the anomalously westerly (+ve) inertia from the early summer.

The tropical convergence outcome well west of the dateline has been more reminiscent of a La Nina pattern - with a retrograde upstream mechanism in the Pacific leading to a retracted pattern downstream with a trough replacing the anticyclonic block across N Europe

A slow process is now coming into view to start to reverse the mid summer disconnect and add back some of the westerly inertia lost from global windflow- but again it will be necessary to consider the extra tropical Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) response which depicts aggregate windflow in both tropics & extra tropics - and not the MJO, in isolation.

In this respect, MJO composite,, do not always give a full picture b/c they risk assuming a linear extra tropical response according to the selected composite related to either a La Nina or El Nino forcing. Composite analysis can be erroneous b/c it assumes fixed given parameters within the tropics that do not always correspond to a fixed projected outcome in the extra tropics. 

The constant flux of the atmospheric circulation requires that each wind-flow exchange requires analysis according to its merits and not an x+y = assumption. It is also true that superimposed extra warming is skewing responses based on so many micro scale escalated anomalies creating enough "local" global extremes to strain the overall responses that Mother Nature put in place.

[Metwatch]

5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

The first properly summery chart I've seen in weeks. Better savour it. It'll probably be gone on the next run.

As expected very different looking on the 06z. Didn't even have to check the 00z GEFS ensembles to know that it was pretty much an outlier within the suite. 

[JayAlmeida]

Surely a negative CET is now on the cards for July if the model forecasting for the next 10 days verifies.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Surely a negative CET is now on the cards for July if the model forecasting for the next 10 days verifies.

Certainly. A nego- CET is on the books for July as a whole now....however  the AGM is slowly  coming into forcing...don't  write off August  as the monster month......for Heat transfer. Into our latitude..A close eye needed !!

Edited July 21, 2023 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

It looks to me this morning as though the signal for high pressure to build over the UK that has been in the EPS as a minority cluster in the day 10-15 period for a few days now, is finally starting to gather some momentum.

Clusters T264+ this morning:

Clusters 1 and 6 show the pattern, but you can argue that clusters 4 and 5 are also a watered down version of the same evolution. 

If we think we know the ultimate direction of travel from the background signals, @Tamara has been very clear about this from the GWO perspective, the question for me is regarding the wave 5 pattern that the Met Office alluded to in their video earlier in the week.  Because it seems to me that in order to follow that direction of travel, something has first got to shake the atmosphere out of this completely stuck pattern we have been in for weeks, and this is the bit I struggle with, as if the whole thing needs some extra ‘nudge’ which might require some randomness to go our way to achieve.  It has seemed that way, anyway.

[Frigid]

49 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Surely a negative CET is now on the cards for July if the model forecasting for the next 10 days verifies.

These are the GFS 6z max temps for my area.. you'd think we were in October. You can always add 2-3C on top of those temps but still, a very chilly week ahead.

 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

So stuck in circle of doom = summer over

no ..... it means that theres not enough convective activity to have much if any forcing on our weather pattern.  other factors will override it.

[Frigid]

CFSv2 Temp anomalies. Haven't seen a clearer signal for -ve temperature anomalies on the CFS, this protracted since Spring 2021. They usually have a warm bias, so to see this is quite something. 

Week 1: 

Week 2: 

Week 3: 

Week 4: 

Granted, they're unreliable the further you go but it's interesting to see nonetheless. If only this was forecast in mid Jan, not July.. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

It looks to me this morning as though the signal for high pressure to build over the UK that has been in the EPS as a minority cluster in the day 10-15 period for a few days now, is finally starting to gather some momentum.

Clusters T264+ this morning:

Clusters 1 and 6 show the pattern, but you can argue that clusters 4 and 5 are also a watered down version of the same evolution. 

If we think we know the ultimate direction of travel from the background signals, @Tamara has been very clear about this from the GWO perspective, the question for me is regarding the wave 5 pattern that the Met Office alluded to in their video earlier in the week.  Because it seems to me that in order to follow that direction of travel, something has first got to shake the atmosphere out of this completely stuck pattern we have been in for weeks, and this is the bit I struggle with, as if the whole thing needs some extra ‘nudge’ which might require some randomness to go our way to achieve.  It has seemed that way, anyway.

Rather early season, but perhaps an ex tropical storm might do the job.. I think we are anticipating a strong hurricane season this year, last year it took a long time to get going.. in some years an early active season commences in August.

Edited July 21, 2023 by damianslaw

[ANYWEATHER]

And as for FI ×2 yes feast your eyes on these charts

[Bats32]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

And as for FI ×2 yes feast your eyes on these charts

FWIW, the Op is at the lower end of the ensembles for this time range.

[MP-R]

CFS yet again showing what is possible into August if summer would just behave! Not always great in the north, but considerably better (not hard) in the south. 

   

[mushymanrob]

At last we are beginning to see some pressure rise nudging in to our South.. its a long way to go, painfully long.. we just need to see that trough lifted instead of being maintained... No heat week 1 August... but more average, any heat will be week 2 at the earliest. the only blob of blue in the Northern Hemisphere is still affecting us...


 

Edited July 21, 2023 by mushymanrob

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

It looks to me this morning as though the signal for high pressure to build over the UK that has been in the EPS as a minority cluster in the day 10-15 period for a few days now, is finally starting to gather some momentum.

Clusters T264+ this morning:

Clusters 1 and 6 show the pattern, but you can argue that clusters 4 and 5 are also a watered down version of the same evolution. 

If we think we know the ultimate direction of travel from the background signals, @Tamara has been very clear about this from the GWO perspective, the question for me is regarding the wave 5 pattern that the Met Office alluded to in their video earlier in the week.  Because it seems to me that in order to follow that direction of travel, something has first got to shake the atmosphere out of this completely stuck pattern we have been in for weeks, and this is the bit I struggle with, as if the whole thing needs some extra ‘nudge’ which might require some randomness to go our way to achieve.  It has seemed that way, anyway.

I checked the members individually at T360 - to my eyes 23 out of 51 members had high pressure in the ascendancy for most of the UK. Not bad for D15 (6 August) but I feel we've had a few false dawns at that far out, so I'm still on the fence myself...

[northwestsnow]

Day 8 on GFS 

 

I've not been overly bothered about July as we had June in the bank but it's all  starting to get annoying now.

Don't want this garbage in August.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8 on GFS 

 

I've not been overly bothered about July as we had June in the bank but it's all  starting to get annoying now.

Don't want this garbage in August.

 

That's disgusting, another weekend as well

[SunSean]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8 on GFS 

 

I've not been overly bothered about July as we had June in the bank but it's all  starting to get annoying now.

Don't want this garbage in August.

 

It looks like one of those cartoon ghosts, grinning sadistically as it gives the UK the touch of Summer death.

Edited July 21, 2023 by SunSean

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Gfs is shocking again 

[clark3r]

12 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Gfs is shocking again 

O dear I haven’t even looked at the charts but sounds shocking so I won’t even bother

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, clark3r said:

O dear I haven’t even looked at the charts but sounds shocking so I won’t even bother

Low after low, disgusting zonal onslaught

[CoventryWeather]

I'm staying hopefully - there is a weak cluster in the GEFS ensembles at 192-216 hrs that have a weak ridge over the UK.. Hanging onto threads. 

Otherwise, it's the (latter part) of the 1st week of August where it may start to settle down. 

[78/79]

14 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

I'm staying hopefully - there is a weak cluster in the GEFS ensembles at 192-216 hrs that have a weak ridge over the UK.. Hanging onto threads. 

Otherwise, it's the (latter part) of the 1st week of August where it may start to settle down. 

Which August?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

I'm staying hopefully - there is a weak cluster in the GEFS ensembles at 192-216 hrs that have a weak ridge over the UK.. Hanging onto threads. 

Otherwise, it's the (latter part) of the 1st week of August where it may start to settle down. 

The GEFS 12Z ensemble mean doesn't back the op at 384 hours although the mean ridge scenario is slightly retrogressive.   

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

Edited July 21, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981