Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A gradual shift in association with multiple dynamics still coming together nicely, I'd like to delve deeper into a few intriguing situations that will be occuring over the next 3-perhaps 4 weeks, starting with an emerging tropical wave from Africa which likely causes a tropical system to develop within the MDR 

 

This then curves northeastwards, interacts with the jet and to me looks like quite substantial rossby wave breaking within the Atlantic. 

With retrogression upcoming we can see that especially prominent as a trough develops offshore from the U.S west coast and gets drawn WESTWARDS through a section of the pacific, the higher pressure in the interior parts of Canada will absorb part of the energy within the high centred along the southern states 

 

Interesting signs for a shot at dual Pacific tropical systems 

 

The shifting of shear pattern evident also with the end of week 2 taking the look that would be supportive of tropical developments with a path toward the US beyond week 2 which I'll get to shortly 

Another retrogressive move with the zonal winds fitting to the pattern shifts mentioned above   

Most of the significant changing aspects in the shorter term are occuring outwith the UK however the direction very much aligning within setups evolving thanks to phases 2-3 

 

Quite the appearance as we move into weeks 3&4 which is August weeks 2>4

I'd not be one bit surprised for Tropical - Hurricane development ranging from the Caribbean Island chain > Miami > North + South Carolina. Lower possibility but I wouldn't exclude the Mid Atlantic either 

Lots of intriguing prospects as the calendar shifts to August ️🌤

 

[Don]

8 hours ago, MP-R said:

Pretty sure 17/18 was a La Niña winter.

I can't quite remember, but I'm pretty sure an El Nino was forecast before it collapsed?

Edited July 28, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I can't quite remember, but I'm pretty sure an El Nino was forecast before it collapsed?

Can't remember if it was forecast or not but @mushymanrob has clarified it was a La Nina in the end. Indeed, the first half of winter was very Nina-esque in terms of tendency to bringing northerlies and northwesterlies, including as early as November.

[Nick2373]

8 hours ago, Tamara said:

There is no clear sign still of this situation changing. Quite the reverse from late Spring and early Summer generally expressed expectations. Indeed thoughts expressed earlier in July have been consigned to history. Probably one of the most challenging seasons, in general, to decode - but then there are some answers as always to be found.

What also is contributing to the feedback loop in the Atlantic/European sector is ridiculously warm (hot) waters in the NW Atlantic and off the Newfoundland coast which is superimposing the macro scale tropical>extra tropical feedback with the feedback ridging aligning this anomaly and amplifying the effects of deeper troughs running around the perimeter of the Atlantic ridge towards NW Europe within the defined stuck wave pattern. An unusual thermal gradient for summer is created along the polar front as this anomalous heat clashes with the colder air north of the jet stream path The feedback is self perpetuating - the longer the ridge pattern holds, the more the static pattern increasingly allows the regional SST's to increase. And so on and so forth. For UK & NW Europe, this feedback matters - because it is immediately downstream.

From a Portuguese point of view, the unexpected broad scale summer pattern has actually done the country a favour with enough Atlantic wind-flow incidence based on the position of the Azores/Atlantic ridge to the west, and the passage of a few very weak trailing fronts from the N European troughs to allow an aircon effect through most of July. These fronts have produced barely any rain, away from NW Iberian coasts, but have been just about enough to keep the worst of the inferno upper air temperature profiles to the east.

The predictions, in line with much of the expressed thinking heading into the summer, braced the country for the type of dangerously hot and damaging conditions seen across the Mediterranean to the east. So IMBY, (but with August still to come), there is a lot of gratitude so far in contrast to the feelings of many in the UK stuck under the N European trough. Just another, very different,perspective that shows that dangerous blazing heat is worse in many respect than the tiresome dirge of unseasonably wet & unsettled conditions which spoil summer activity, but in themselves are not harmful to people, animals, infrastructure & very much so the environment.

No-one should doubt how superimposed warming is skewing the feedbacks and exaggerating and distorting naturally expected synoptic pattern responses. It does NOT debunk the diagnostic science that studies the natural feedbacks  - but, as stated recently, it does reinforce the message that forecasting based on historical composites are increasingly prone to error and patterns, as they evolve, need to be taken on their own merits.

Some of the very abnormal arctic, ocean and landmass heat anomalies around the globe are creating so many stark and intense micro scale feedbacks that the sum of all these is grossly distorting expected synoptic feedbacks on the larger scale

It is actually very worrying. No-one should underestimate this.

Ambivalent as I am and with no personal interest in cold weather outcomes for the UK in winter, this taking patterns on their merits approach should be adopted especially from this autumn, to save a lot of time and energy in trying to fit desired outcomes into composite frameworks which climate forcing is making more and more redundant as each year passes. This is all happening very fast. Whether it is to do with forecasting, or simply living from month to month, year to year,  people who remain complacent and/or in denial need to wake up.

If I may respectfully ask - why exactly?

There is a big difference between defining the outcome of a month based on emotion/pessimism (or as per a minority of daily suspects, simply to childishly goad reaction and wind-up people)  - and the people who are often the targets of reactions who take time out to try and offer some suggestions and then who are gloated at with pleasure when expectations are missed. Various posters have pointed this out, including the very good summary made by @Kirkcaldy Weather fairly recently.

 

Why you ask? To be honest and quite frank your post have been if anything vague and close to a stopped clock is right twice a day. I’ve noticed that you post with all the big Synoptics and quite a lot of this does that and if this happens then we will see this. When in fact if I recall you looked at the long range and said the opposite to a warm and settled second half of July. The fact is being a professional an amateur or a pro, the weather past seven days is like the lottery. If you can get it right you are quids in. Please feel free to review all my posts regarding the GEFS all the way through July and I think it was pretty much smack on. 

[Mark wheeler]

Ironic I know , but Navgem looks ok towards the end

[Daniel*]

It has been a warm year till now, this below average spell is looking quite prolonged. I guess this is overdue but unfortunate for it to occur in height of summer. I wouldn’t feel confident predicting a warm or settled August at this stage. 

[damianslaw]

Unusually August set to open with a northerly airflow. I suspect on average August is one of the least 'northerly' months of the year.

[Weather Boy]

16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ironic I know , but Navgem looks ok towards the end

(Small) point of order.

You omitted to call it "the mighty" NAVGEM.

Do better.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Summers officially over we can’t keep saying nexts week going to get better you’ll be in December saying no more lows , this is the worst summer I’ve ever had 2 weeks of sun we had in June since April to July 2 weeks of sun absolutely ridiculous 

 

we’re on the 6th August on gfs and got a low sitting on us bore off 

Edited July 28, 2023 by IPredictASnowStorm

[Addicks Fan 1981]

23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It has been a warm year till now, this below average spell is looking quite prolonged. I guess this is overdue but unfortunate for it to occur in height of summer. I wouldn’t feel confident predicting a warm or settled August at this stage. 

I'm not expecting much either to be honest @Daniel*but the research I have done is the unsettled spell we are having may lift in the second half of August.   

Depends if we have more niño like atmospheric responses rather than the niña like response we got at the end of june into july on top of our developing niño.   

Have said it in the previous entries in here that i think the east QBO is causing big problems with the troposphere which is also why we are having these weather implications.  

You could also say that as things stand it does as I've said before feel like a front loaded summer which I think the last time we had one was back in 2017.    

[Hathers]

First of all this summer has been absolute mess. I feel sorry for the posters that keep looking for respite. 
The experience posters need to give them some freedom to express their feelings. 
I’ve seen posts about that it’s great we’re getting extra rainfall. Yes it is. I’ve  seen posts that the weather has played impact into peoples holidays and events.  This summer has been poor. The jet stream has directed everything at us. I believe the weather has a way of balancing things out. Last year was the hottest on record. We move forward from this summer and as always look for signs with the models. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I wouldn't describe our summer as poor @HathersI would describe it as front loaded and pretty weird in the sense we had our best weather in June and first half of July even though it was unsettled we did have some usable weather especially for industries that suffered last year.   

Back to the model discussing and according to GFS 18Z op it does in the later stages in the run be willing to drop heights towards Greenland by the link below.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

We have all to play for in August but I do think that the second half as things stand should be alright providing we don't get a niña like forcing we should be alright.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

Why you ask? To be honest and quite frank your post have been if anything vague and close to a stopped clock is right twice a day. I’ve noticed that you post with all the big Synoptics and quite a lot of this does that and if this happens then we will see this. When in fact if I recall you looked at the long range and said the opposite to a warm and settled second half of July. The fact is being a professional an amateur or a pro, the weather past seven days is like the lottery. If you can get it right you are quids in. Please feel free to review all my posts regarding the GEFS all the way through July and I think it was pretty much smack on. 

The niña like forcing was a game changer on top of a developing niño, net result unsettled and near average temperatures which in modern day terms would be below average.   

What we have now is higher AAM but it needs to maintain itself rather than the abrupt decline it did at the end of june.   

It'll be interesting with what sort of August we get and personally I am implementing myself some rules to look at the hovmoller charts on a daily basis.   

[Weather-history]

Terrible charts for early August.   

 

[clark3r]

Another day, Another day of absolute garbage on gfs right to the end. We had our summer in June! 

[Guest]

GFS ensembles trending cooler if anything this morning:

 

[Alderc 2.0]

After what is going to be one of the wettest, dullest Julys on record GFS backed by pretty much all the models is grim viewing this morning, 4 deep lows pushing over the country, 3 of them pretty deep with only cool, showery periods between them. With such a cold airmass in place and shortening nights wouldn’t surprise me if places further north start seeing frosts soon.
 

The only consolation is that by the end of the run most of Central Europe and Eastern Europe is in the same boat with a swathe of notably colder air from central south France, through the Alps, Czech Republic, Belarus and into Central Russia. Some of the global models showing that august in this area could be cold and unsettled and again the only cold spot in the entire northern hemisphere colder the average.
 

With the first half of august looking to be a near total write off I think for the first time in my life the entirety of high summer will have passed with a single warm spell, even 2007 & 2012 had more 25C days and the odd plume. 

[johnholmes]

Little point in adding to the agony of poor weather with the 500 mb anomaly charts. I'll post again once they seem to be showing something more promising. Try to remember June! Hard I know, 112 mm in my raingauge so far this month; some fairly warm days so not all total gloom in my view.

[mushymanrob]

ill just leave this here....

 

[mb018538]

So much for a surge in AAM shuffling the cards….literally done nothing at all. It’s just low after low piling in. Greece can’t come soon enough for me.

[Snowman.]

6th of August looking more Autumnal than summer with a fairly deep low pressure system slamming into the UK. Will be wet and possibly windy. 

[Mike Poole]

No hope of anything remotely summary in the foreseeable, according to the ECM clusters this morning, T192-T240:

6 shades of dross!  

T264+ does suggest some respite, probably transient though.

I think we have reached a point where summer cannot recover.  Yes, the relaxation of the 5 wave pattern in August will probably lead to some transient fine spells that have been absent in July.  But I think the idea that a longer hot spell can be manufactured from somewhere is probably for the birds.  I commented in late spring that I was looking for the kind of positive reinforcement pattern that is the hallmark of a good summer, and we had that in June, but any such pattern is totally ruined now.  As an example, compare the SST anomalies for today and a month ago, today on left:

The anomalously warm area around and southwest of the UK is gone, and as @Tamara noted yesterday, there is now a big warm anomaly further west, where we don’t want it. 

Too late in the season to set up a decent summer pattern from scratch again now, I would say.  Most likely settled weather will return in September, as it often does, but that’s for another day.  

[Gael_Force]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 I commented in late spring that I was looking for the kind of positive reinforcement pattern that is the hallmark of a good summer, and we had that in June, but any such pattern is totally ruined now

I was musing these patterns.....

SSW Canadian warming in November/December is associated with a later winter Scandinavian high. We had a very strong mid March warming which was in focused in that region. Have we been seeing the synoptics of an epic winter, play out in late Spring and early summer? 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The wet and windy roller coaster summer seems to be in full force as we parade our way into the final month of summer! Not showing any charts this morning to add insult to injury, but it may be September that may give us a brief splurge of late summer......but in between the rain and showers ,when the the sun does come out it does feel like summer allbeit fleeting.......

[Metwatch]

A channel low for the second day of August it seems; couldn't make this one up.

I can guarantee for the upcoming winter this wouldn't happen to bring us a dumping of snow.