Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[JayAlmeida]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, it seems the GFS is serious about this currently!

Saw a few runs like this for the 19th and 20th last weekend on the GFS and now they seem to have resurfaced.

It is encouraging but as we have seen with the upcoming 2 day wonder (which downgraded) reality will usually fall short of expectation this summer.

Would be nice to go out on a high after such a prolonged spell of cool and wet weather.

Edited August 8, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Don]

17 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Saw a few runs like this for the 19th and 20th last weekend on the GFS and now they seem to have resurfaced.

It would seem there is a growing chance of a plume around the 19th/20th, but the question is, will it be a brief event, or something more sustained?

[Wold Topper]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

It would seem there is a growing chance of a plume around the 19th/20th, but the question is, will it be a brief event, or something more sustained?

Is the GFS sniffing out a potential plume, the GFS does have history and a nose for these kind of scenarios

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Is the GFS sniffing out a potential plume, the GFS does have history and a nose for these kind of scenarios

It does indeed!

[Alderc 2.0]

In true 2023 style this mornings gfs 00Z run turns next weeks plume event into a 24hrs event and any really warm stuff is blasted away before it settles any. Hopefully a cool outlier.

GEM has no plume but a route to much better and lengthy spell of settled weather as high pressure builds directly over the uk. 

[WeatherEnthusiast]

Latest 00GFS is a downgrade from the 18Z as Low Pressure returns. 

Edited August 9, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[GokouD]

48 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

In true 2023 style this mornings gfs 00Z run turns next weeks plume event into a 24hrs event and any really warm stuff is blasted away before it settles any. Hopefully a cool outlier.

GEM has no plume but a route to much better and lengthy spell of settled weather as high pressure builds directly over the uk. 

I'd take lengthy and settled as I'm going to West Wales for a week on the 23rd. I assume we'll get neither though! 

[SunSean]

59 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

Latest 00GFS is a downgrade from the 18Z as Low Pressure returns. 

Uk Summer 2023 groundhog day.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

45 minutes ago, GokouD said:

I'd take lengthy and settled as I'm going to West Wales for a week on the 23rd. I assume we'll get neither though! 

Apparently we need to be looking at the GEM 00Z ensemble mean at the moment for general trends according to the NOAA prognostic discussion.   As @Alderc 2.0suggests that the GEM is a sure fire route to settled.   

[knocker]

7 hours ago, Wold Topper said:

Is the GFS sniffing out a potential plume, the GFS does have history and a nose for these kind of scenarios

Interesting to note that it has moved on from coffee

[Addicks Fan 1981]

16 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Apparently we need to be looking at the GEM 00Z ensemble mean at the moment for general trends according to the NOAA prognostic discussion.   As @Alderc 2.0suggests that the GEM is a sure fire route to settled.   

Very good GEM 00Z ensemble mean at 384 hours ahead this morning and to be honest I trust the GEM more than the rest of the models at the moment.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[WeatherEnthusiast]

48 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Very good GEM 00Z ensemble mean at 384 hours ahead this morning and to be honest I trust the GEM more than the rest of the models at the moment.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

Does anyone have links to the GFS raw data I am interested to understand how the model is currently failing so badly at longer range. The % accuracy rate must be extremely low.  I used to trust GFS but wouldnt trust it now as far as i could throw the server it uses! 

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Interesting to note that it has moved on from coffee

I think GFS had one too many coffees yesterday when producing its outputs! 

Edited August 9, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[Andrea]

And the plume is gone again... we all know how this is ending 

[WeatherEnthusiast]

No Plume event - all I can say is enjoy the sunshine this afternoon and tomorrow before the Cold Front and next trough arrives 

[MattStoke]

Glad my holiday from Friday is in Thetford. With the north west/south east split developing, East Anglia looks pretty dry bar the odd shower.

[WeatherEnthusiast]

18 minutes ago, Andrea said:

And the plume is gone again... we all know how this is ending 

yes in a UK trough. Jet Stream is Powering up again   This is the 18Z version here - extreme differences in the two model runs: 

Edited August 9, 2023 by WeatherEnthusiast

[Addicks Fan 1981]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Glad my holiday from Friday is in Thetford. With the north west/south east split developing, East Anglia looks pretty dry bar the odd shower.

It seems @MattStokethat some here are ignoring the GEFS 00Z ensemble mean today and going on gut instincts from what they've seen off op runs, this run below is exactly in line with the GEM 00Z ensemble mean pretty much.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

[Rain All Night]

I still see an improving picture for those of us down south at least...

[Wimbledon88]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Glad my holiday from Friday is in Thetford. With the north west/south east split developing, East Anglia looks pretty dry bar the odd shower.

I never thought I'd ever hear/see the expression 'Glad my holiday is in Thetford'.....  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

6 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I still see an improving picture for those of us down south at least...

Think we need some input from @Tamarasoon to let us know on background signals as things stand, @MattHhelped us a bit and he did state that AAM did take a nosedive, however not enough to get us basically in the negative category.   

However i think we need to be informed again on things as background signals lead the models.  

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensemble this morning has mean 1025mb high to our NE by 19th August, which could be a sign of some sort of block emerging ... I usually consider a mean 1030mb to be "banked", but this is as close as we've got since June:

 

[Bats32]

Looks like the ECM clusters are really favouring high pressure over the north of the country towards the end of next week.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Bats32

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I never thought I'd ever hear/see the expression 'Glad my holiday is in Thetford'.....  

Well, it's at Centre Parcs, so we'll have a protective bubble around us 

[CoventryWeather]

23 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Looks like the ECM clusters are really favouring high pressure over the north of the country towards the end of next week.

 

 

2/3/4 all showing a plume. Think we are in for a warm second half to August. 

[Alderc 2.0]

1 hour ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:

yes in a UK trough. Jet Stream is Powering up again   This is the 18Z version here - extreme differences in the two model runs: 

That’s an embarrassing change tbh.