Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

More flesh on the bones of the ECM seasonal from yesterday, now it is out on Meteociel, first 500 hPa height anomalies:

Surface pressure anomalies:

I have to say these don’t look a very strong signal in our part of the NH - the most positive height anomalies are on the Pacific side.  Makes me wonder if actually there is quite a mix of solutions in there and the average ends up looking a bit meh?

Looks like December has best chance of cold there with higher pressure to the east or NE for continental cold chances

january mild and wet NW, drier SE

February ......... TOTAL WASHOUT !!!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 2006/07 was only weak Nino, was strong WQBO and in descending solar cycle phase so not a good comparison to this up coming winter really.

Good news for coldies in that way at least.

I hope not. At least 2013/14 was neutral cold ENSO and also strong WQBO too like 2006/07 was. Hope for us at least.

But look what happened in 2018-19: The background signals, the SSW, the models, pundits and the Met. were all suggesting a 'whiteout winter'. And what did we get? 21C maxes in February! 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Methuselah

[Chesil View]

Nothing very strong in any of those anomaly charts which suggest to me a wide range of outcomes in the various ensembles runs that are then averaged out to give  us the result which doesn't really say anything much at all. 

 

[Mike Poole]

50 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Nothing very strong in any of those anomaly charts which suggest to me a wide range of outcomes in the various ensembles runs that are then averaged out to give  us the result which doesn't really say anything much at all. 

 

Yep, that’s definitely my take on it too.  The 3 month average charts are what they are, but I was expecting to see much more of some sort of signal for better or worse on the 1 month average charts and there just isn’t.  After the despondency of yesterday, we actually have little new information.  Still all to play for!

Edited October 6, 2023 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

More flesh on the bones of the ECM seasonal from yesterday, now it is out on Meteociel, first 500 hPa height anomalies:

Surface pressure anomalies:

I have to say these weren’t quite what I was expecting after the discussion yesterday, they don’t look like a very strong signal at all in our part of the NH - the most positive height anomalies are on the Pacific side.  Makes me wonder if actually there is quite a mix of solutions in there and the average ends up looking a bit meh?

Positive height anoms of any level to our south are surely enough of turn off Mike ??

[Mike Poole]

47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Positive height anoms of any level to our south are surely enough of turn off Mike ??

My point is that with a weak signal, without seeing the individual runs, they are hardly likely to be there on every run for the entire winter?  

I mean, it’s 2 dam on a mean chart.  And no signal on surface pressure.  (Apart from January, which is slightly more.)

I think people are reading a little too much into an average chart that doesn’t say very much.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

More flesh on the bones of the ECM seasonal from yesterday, now it is out on Meteociel, first 500 hPa height anomalies:

Surface pressure anomalies:

I have to say these weren’t quite what I was expecting after the discussion yesterday, they don’t look like a very strong signal at all in our part of the NH - the most positive height anomalies are on the Pacific side.  Makes me wonder if actually there is quite a mix of solutions in there and the average ends up looking a bit meh?

I mentioned how poorly the ECM 46 hr forecasts performed last winter. Often showed blocking to the north but nothing verified post mid Dec. High caution as always with these seasonals.

Edited October 6, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like December has best chance of cold there with higher pressure to the east or NE for continental cold chances

january mild and wet NW, drier SE

February ......... TOTAL WASHOUT !!!

I would say the 500 hPa chart looks mild for December also, with high pressure ridging north across the UK and lower pressure in the Atlantic drawing up mild air from the south.  Those 500 hPa charts look poor for all three months to me?!

[bluearmy]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My point is that with a weak signal, without seeing the individual runs, they are hardly likely to be there on every run for the entire winter?  

I mean, it’s 2 dam on a mean chart.  And no signal on surface pressure.  (Apart from January, which is slightly more.)

I think people are reading a little too much into an average chart that doesn’t say very much.

Take that on board but to get a wintry month we need lower heights than average to our south - you’d doubt that many members see that given the mean is positive 

[CoventryWeather]

Do you know when the GLOSEA update comes out? Is it tomorrow?

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Take that on board but to get a wintry month we need lower heights than average to our south - you’d doubt that many members see that given the mean is positive 

Only slightly positive, it could be 40%.  (It could be more if the mean is dominated by just a few massive highs).  And zero is in the wrong place anyway now on these heights anomalies due to global warming.  

But I take your point, and as I said yesterday, the swingometer has swung in the wrong direction - replacing a strong signal from ECM for blocking in September, with this mess in October.  But not by much unless the signal is replicated on the other models in a few days time, so I’m not throwing in the towel like some have already! 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Hope everyone is well. I can’t believe how quickly time has gone seems like yesterday we were say goodbye to last winter.

Well here we are again ready for the new chapter this coming winter season. 

I have been reading the comments and thoughts for this season and was quite surprised on how some are being downbeat already. I just need to say at this stage take any seasonal model with a pinch of salt. We have got all to play for. My theory is that if we cannot sometimes accurately forecast a week ahead then thinking months forward is a throw in the dark. We have got rest of October and all of November to see what weather pattern develops anything at the moment is possible we just need to go with the flow and see how the jigsaw puzzle gets started. 

Hopefully this season we can at least get a couple of good cold shots. If any model is averaging mild for this winter season this does not mean it will not be cold or there will not be any snow. A month can come out mild on average but still have a decent week of snow, it all depends how the temperature averages out.

So peeps who have already been close to throwing the towel a season is not over which has not even started the ball has started rolling.

have a great weekend all

regards

[SollyOlly]

9 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

Hope everyone is well. I can’t believe how quickly time has gone seems like yesterday we were say goodbye to last winter.

Well here we are again ready for the new chapter this coming winter season. 

I have been reading the comments and thoughts for this season and was quite surprised on how some are being downbeat already. I just need to say at this stage take any seasonal model with a pinch of salt. We have got all to play for. My theory is that if we cannot sometimes accurately forecast a week ahead then thinking months forward is a throw in the dark. We have got rest of October and all of November to see what weather pattern develops anything at the moment is possible we just need to go with the flow and see how the jigsaw puzzle gets started. 

Hopefully this season we can at least get a couple of good cold shots. If any model is averaging mild for this winter season this does not mean it will not be cold or there will not be any snow. A month can come out mild on average but still have a decent week of snow, it all depends how the temperature averages out.

So peeps who have already been close to throwing the towel a season is not over which has not even started the ball has started rolling.

have a great weekend all

regards

I like your post! Completely agree. Admittedly, unlike the heat-seekers we coldies live in hope rather than expectation, but it is surely too early to throw in the towel, as you say. Sadly, I do try to accept these days that a proper winter is less and less likely, but I always live in hope! And the models for July and August were not on point this year, albeit that it has still been a warm/ hot year to date. So...maybe it's a case of accepted wisdom about anticipating a warm winter...but as I say, I live in hope. In recent times, the first half of December last year and the first half of February in 2021 were magnificent, proper seasonal weather...let's not give in just yet!

[northwestsnow]

Euro heights are becoming almost a permanent fixture in winter.

Kiss goodbye to cold winters if this transpires.. 

It's hard to be optimistic but hope springs eternal !

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Uncertainty]

Meteofrance is odd as well but in a much more favourable way for coldies than the ec. Pretty blocked for nov and Dec - against expectations. Jan is flatter but not poor and Feb and March get back on the blocking train.

Dec (!)

 

Jan

 

Feb

 

So aside from Jan a very blocked winter. Cansips also blocked so it’s now 2 vs 2 with the cfs and now the ecm jumping ship. Definitely reduces confidence. Clearly there’s a ‘way things could go’ this winter which would lead to significant blocking, but there’s also a clear route to a ++nao too. I still think we’ll get both with a sudden ssw induced flip in Jan. if we do go modoki, the iod does one and the sun chills out then we’ve got a real chance. 2019/2020 it ain’t but sadly, it’s not a nailed in 2009/10 either - except perhaps the wet bit!

 

 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Euro heights are becoming almost a permanent fixture in winter.

Kiss goodbye to cold winters if this transpires.. 

 

There will always be exceptions when Euro heights will be lower during winter, even if they do become semi-permanent!

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Dec (!)

Feb

 

 

November and December look decent, but February looks a little strange and I don't like the that high pressure extending south over Europe.  However, definitely better charts than the ECM!

[josh-weather]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Euro heights are becoming almost a permanent fixture in winter.

Kiss goodbye to cold winters if this transpires.. 

It's hard to be optimistic but hope springs eternal !

 

To be honest with the speed at which things are changing, things that seem permanent might totally change any moment. The trend is gonna be for less cold overall but maybe more extremes including cold extremes, so you never know. My one positive (more like consolation prize!) from global warming!

[blizzard81]

To be honest I've just about given up on January these days lol. Dec is the new hope these days so here's hoping. 

[Mike Poole]

5 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

To be honest I've just about given up on January these days lol. Dec is the new hope these days so here's hoping. 

Do you think that there is a trend for a weaker PV early season, giving a window of opportunity in December, before the inevitable happens and the vortex intensifies, but that puts an limit on how early a SSW can occur?  

Meaning there are two bites at the cherry for cold, one before the vortex ramps up, and one late season (Feb or Mar) after a SSW, but neither of these really applies in January, which sits in between?  

It has crossed my mind that something on those lines might be a trend we seem to be living with.

 

[iceman1991]

Everyone going on about seasonal ecm model and others predicting mild preety sure I see on here weren’t all the seasonal models saying a hot summer for this one and it’s been nothing but cold  far from hot I’m down the south to  not having a dig at anyone think people just need to relax a bit not saying we gunna be in for a cold winter just see what happens 

[BremX]

Looking at the seasonal models, which I always take with a pinch of salt, I will revert to a very good phrase for model watching. They can't all be right, but they can all be wrong. 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Do you think that there is a trend for a weaker PV early season, giving a window of opportunity in December, before the inevitable happens and the vortex intensifies, but that puts an limit on how early a SSW can occur?  

Meaning there are two bites at the cherry for cold, one before the vortex ramps up, and one late season (Feb or Mar) after a SSW, but neither of these really applies in January, which sits in between?  

It has crossed my mind that something on those lines might be a trend we seem to be living with.

 

That's a very good point Mike. I agree with you. It's like the opposite of the 1980's when the Decembers were generally wet and mild (1981 aside) and the meat of winter was the best chance for cold, sometimes January, sometimes February. 

[bryan629]

So just for fun i decided to peer deeply into the muddy waters of the netweather crystal ball , which also has a good smattering of tea leaves for good measure! 

Something caught my eye this morning from the GFS way out in neverland to something i saw on X yesterday, so i put A+B together and arrived more than likely at Z , 

First off is the MJO prediction for late october and early november: 

HP dominated wesern europe which seems to drift northeast over to Scandi. 

Then as mentioned the GFS late OCT             Early NOV

           

So nothing particularly striking about these charts, unless you like a south easterly. I just found it uncanny that yesterdays MJO prediction looks a lot like the GFS 00z 

  

 

Absolutely not wheeling out the `P` word at all.. and all just for fun, so nobody needs to wake Nick Sussex just yet. 

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by bryan629
dupliate images

[Chesil View]

12 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Meteofrance is odd as well but in a much more favourable way for coldies than the ec. Pretty blocked for nov and Dec - against expectations. Jan is flatter but not poor and Feb and March get back on the blocking train.

Dec (!)

 

Jan

 

Feb

 

So aside from Jan a very blocked winter. Cansips also blocked so it’s now 2 vs 2 with the cfs and now the ecm jumping ship. Definitely reduces confidence. Clearly there’s a ‘way things could go’ this winter which would lead to significant blocking, but there’s also a clear route to a ++nao too. I still think we’ll get both with a sudden ssw induced flip in Jan. if we do go modoki, the iod does one and the sun chills out then we’ve got a real chance. 2019/2020 it ain’t but sadly, it’s not a nailed in 2009/10 either - except perhaps the wet bit!

 

 

Meteo France have a decent record recently often picking up on the Iberian hieghts that have scuppered many a recent winter season. 

From memory i would go so far as to say they have a better record than ECM for our locale.