Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Frigid]

12 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Meteofrance is odd as well but in a much more favourable way for coldies than the ec. Pretty blocked for nov and Dec - against expectations. Jan is flatter but not poor and Feb and March get back on the blocking train.

Dec (!)

 

Jan

 

Feb

 

So aside from Jan a very blocked winter. Cansips also blocked so it’s now 2 vs 2 with the cfs and now the ecm jumping ship. Definitely reduces confidence. Clearly there’s a ‘way things could go’ this winter which would lead to significant blocking, but there’s also a clear route to a ++nao too. I still think we’ll get both with a sudden ssw induced flip in Jan. if we do go modoki, the iod does one and the sun chills out then we’ve got a real chance. 2019/2020 it ain’t but sadly, it’s not a nailed in 2009/10 either - except perhaps the wet bit!

 

 

Well that's lifted a few spirits.. Nov + Dec looks sensational, even February could have a cold spell or two by the looks of things. Certainly not giving up hope, until all models come at an agreement of sorts. 

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, bryan629 said:

So just for fun i decided to peer deeply into the muddy waters of the netweather crystal ball , which also has a good smattering of tea leaves for good measure! 

Something caught my eye this morning from the GFS way out in neverland to something i saw on X yesterday, so i put A+B together and arrived more than likely at Z , 

First off is the MJO prediction for late october and early november: 

HP dominated wesern europe which seems to drift northeast over to Scandi. 

Then as mentioned the GFS late OCT             Early NOV

           

So nothing particularly striking about these charts, unless you like a south easterly. I just found it uncanny that yesterdays MJO prediction looks a lot like the GFS 00z 

  

 

Absolutely not wheeling out the `P` word at all.. and all just for fun, so nobody needs to wake Nick Sussex just yet. 

 

The big Ural high is what we want. If it manifests and lasts the vortex could pop in December. Ec46 sees it too throughout late oct early nov.

 

 

Early days, but if we get 3 weeks of a giant Ural ridge (massive if) then things could get toasty up top right when coldies want it to…

[SqueakheartLW]

23 hours ago, Methuselah said:

But look what happened in 2018-19: The background signals, the SSW, the models, pundits and the Met. were all suggesting a 'whiteout winter'. And what did we get? 21C maxes in February! 

2018/19 was WQBO by the time winter arrived, it was also descending solar, roughly in the same place as 2006/07 and was also just weak Nino too.

The SSW was the big let down for this winter as it failed to propagate down like around 1/3 SSW's.

[summer blizzard]

33 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

2018/19 was WQBO by the time winter arrived, it was also descending solar, roughly in the same place as 2006/07 and was also just weak Nino too.

The SSW was the big let down for this winter as it failed to propagate down like around 1/3 SSW's.

It did propagate to be fair (or the second burst did) but it was just quite late on. 

It was also not really a strong thumb but rather a succession of hits from late Jan, that just happened to cross the line. That's probably why it was not the best propogator.

[Don]

Sixth winter update from Gav's Weather Vids focusing on September data! 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Don

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Sixth winter update from Gav's Weather Vids focusing on September data! 

 

Uh oh. A big further swing in favour of a milder than average winter showing up on the swingometer at the start of the 7th update then.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Uh oh. A big further swing in favour of a milder than average winter showing up on the swingometer at the start of the 7th update then.

Oh yes!!

[RJBingham]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Sixth winter update from Gav's Weather Vids focusing on September data! 

 

Upgrade for winter on this one 

[SqueakheartLW]

32 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Upgrade for winter on this one 

Until next week

[SqueakheartLW]

A rather cold easterly showing up here on the latest GEM run - Member P11 at +360 hours away

Those are rather cold uppers and 2m temp maxes for October

[Don]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Until next week

Lets hope so!

[IcySpicy]

Yeah, today models seem to have picked up hints for something cooler in late October. This will probably bring the first snowfall of the season here in Estonia if it comes off. But in my opinion it isn't really helpful for winter. Most likely there will be another pattern change to something milder for November/December.

This is just a gut feeling, but I am getting a little worried about this winter being a sandwich season, aka cold in October/November, then mild in the core winter months, only to end with a late SSW and turn cold again in March/April. This might not be so much of an issue in the UK, since it's  sheltered from the worst of the cold, but here in Estonia this would be awful. I like cold snowy weather in January and February, but I don't want to be stuck with unseasonably cold 5C in October and April and then unseasonably mild 0C-2C in Dec-Feb.

[MP-R]

16 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

A rather cold easterly showing up here on the latest GEM run - Member P11 at +360 hours away

Those are rather cold uppers and 2m temp maxes for October

Good stuff… in December!

 

[Rain All Night]

I see from the EC46 that the stratospheric polar vortex will be popping open its first can of Red Bull of the season during next week. Does this mean that we might expect to see a burst of 'zonal' weather down here a few weeks later (i.e. early November), or is that to vastly oversimplify how these things work?

Edited October 9, 2023 by RainAllNight

[LightningLover]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Good stuff… in December!

 

Pretty nice for October too though!

[Jacob]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Good stuff… in December!

 

Possibility of the first snow of the year in the UK

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Pretty nice for October too though!

Wasted in October.

[Sceptical]

I'll go with my usual guess. Above average temperature for winter 23/24.

[LightningLover]

36 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Wasted in October.

Just looking at the positive side!

[CoventryWeather]

46 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I see from the EC46 that the stratospheric polar vortex will be popping open its first can of Red Bull of the season during next week. Does this mean that we might expect to see a burst of 'zonal' weather down here a few weeks later (i.e. early November), or is that to vastly oversimplify how these things work?

It shouldn't do, but just means that potentially the blocking will subside quicker. 

Anyways, an interesting chart there - an average/slightly above average PV looks most likely, but interesting control - follows a small cluster that struggles to intensify it, and sticks way below average (at around 15 the whole way). Been rather consistent too when looking at the previous charts. 

Perhaps that's picking up on the Scandi Block later this month (could we have an early SSW). 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

If I'm honest I think winter 2023-24 won't be a million miles away from 2015-16 as we have the niño effect, possibly similar to 2018-19 as well and you can't rule out 2014-15 either.  Think the impending winter will be very similar to all of those winters I have mentioned.

[raz.org.rain]

12 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If I'm honest I think winter 2023-24 won't be a million miles away from 2015-16 as we have the niño effect, possibly similar to 2018-19 as well and you can't rule out 2014-15 either.  Think the impending winter will be very similar to all of those winters I have mentioned.

It's somewhat odd that we haven't had a repeat of 1989, given how much warmer the climate is compared to back then.

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, IcySpicy said:

Yeah, today models seem to have picked up hints for something cooler in late October. This will probably bring the first snowfall of the season here in Estonia if it comes off. But in my opinion it isn't really helpful for winter. Most likely there will be another pattern change to something milder for November/December.

This is just a gut feeling, but I am getting a little worried about this winter being a sandwich season, aka cold in October/November, then mild in the core winter months, only to end with a late SSW and turn cold again in March/April. This might not be so much of an issue in the UK, since it's  sheltered from the worst of the cold, but here in Estonia this would be awful. I like cold snowy weather in January and February, but I don't want to be stuck with unseasonably cold 5C in October and April and then unseasonably mild 0C-2C in Dec-Feb.

In theory if the Baltics get a SSW, Western Europe will be on the inverse and warmer side. I wouldn't argue against that, but it would suck for Eastern Europe.

[IcySpicy]

6 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

In theory if the Baltics get a SSW, Western Europe will be on the inverse and warmer side. I wouldn't argue against that, but it would suck for Eastern Europe.

I guess in some years like Feb/March 2018 there are cold blasts that affect all of Northern Europe, including the UK. But the point still stands that temperatures in the UK / Western Europe will recover much faster. Eastern Europe can be stuck with the cold until mid-April. 

Interestingly, the early spring cold of 2013 and 2018 were followed by good summers, so it's not all bad. I think the current cold snap is getting to me, the idea of being stuck with temperatures below 5C temps for the next 6 months is dreadful.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Just looking at the positive side!

Yes indeed. Interesting to look at no doubt… I’m just not keen on synoptics peaking far too soon. All I can see from that is 5°C and rain like October 2003.