Storm Ciarán

[Thunders]

2 minutes ago, LeeRoyxD said:

the wind down here already in Seaford is making a racket 

same here 

[Polar Maritime]

Theres time yet for a Red Warning..

Edited November 1, 2023 by Polar Maritime

[Thunders]

the ain band is abouts to hit me, once it does, will the wind pick up?

[Crepuscular Ray]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

How the wind can't be stronger here than over there, and it's already blowing

Perhaps because Dawlish is east-facing and better sheltered?

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Yep, it's still a model based forecast.

Observationally, a better resource might be Meteociel's isobars charts. It uses the models only to fill in the gaps between observations, and updates every few minutes. The centre of the storm is off the chart, but we do seem to have confirmation from here that it's modestly further north than the ECM track was suggesting. I would say minimum 25 miles, but could easily be more than that.

25 miles difference in track will make a massive difference in the far SE

[CurtisOliver]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

25 miles difference in track will make a massive difference in the far SE

I would gather so. I'm waiting for models to update their forecasts.

[VillagePlank]

Recent sat IR:

Is it me, or is that beginning to develop a banded cloud head?

[Alpine glow]

Nothing major near the South Downs in Brighton (yet) - just windy!  Feels ominous though.

[Mcconnor8]

Looks like the UKV and ICON 18z both trended south slightly on their 12z runs, so who knows what us going on with the tracking if it looks more North on radar?

[Gazse9]

Can now clearly see the eye of Storm Ciaran.

Will make it's tracking a lot easier from now on

[Kiwi]

4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Some footage coming out of Penzance in the last hour to 2.

My sister is in Newlyn ....and said it was already a bit wild!!

Parked her car up the hill to avoid it becoming a fish trap.

I'll ask for photos.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Theres time yet for a Red Warning..

While that's indeed true, a lot of people aren't going to notice in the very early hours of the morning, if it was issued in the next hour or so a lot more people are going to take notice.

[Man With Beard]

32 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

I mean that's pretty much what some of the high res models are showing. Not exactly surprising. Over the channel the high res models show a narrow band of 100mph plus

And perhaps the reason some hi-res models get close to 100mph for Cornwall, yet GFS doesn't?

[matty40s]

19 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?

Yes

[Atmogenic]

had what sounded like a big gust of wind outside my house about 10 mins ago, like someone as said it's like someone turned on a wind switch here. It was a bit windy at Hythe today but I wouldn't say it was stormy but a bit windier than normal.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Atmogenic

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

What winds am I due in Manston kent bit worrying as I'm at an open field where we get very powerful gusts from the two miles of just field 

[CurtisOliver]

Just now, Atmogenic said:

had what sounded like a big gust of wind outside my house about 10 mins ago, like someone as said it's like someone turned on a wind switch here. I was a bit windy at Hythe today but I wouldn't say it was stormy but a bit windier than normal.

I'm noticing it picks up abruptly with the rain. I went outside half an hour ago and it went eerily still.

[Roger J Smith]

Strongest wind gust so far is 148 km/hr at Pointe St-mathieu near Brest, Brittany buoy is at 973 bs and 89 km/hr sustained gusting to 120 km/hr from SW. Strong for a buoy only 3m above mean surface in big waves (wind is forced up a bit by waves so open ocean gusts will be 20-40% stronger on exposed coasts nearby) Low centre on satellite is around 49.3N 8.0 W, looks likely to go directly over south coast Cornwall, Plymouth-Exeter areas and slide inland over east Devon or west Dorset. Track towards Reading and eventually Cambridge? Think it will overperform current warnings in southeast. Wind damage and disruption is possible anywhere south of Salisbury to Basingstoke to central or north London to Norwich. Red alert conditions will verify in some more exposed locations within that zone, and orange will be widespread (and would include Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, Wilts, parts of Oxfordshire also. 

On subject of sting jet, this is perhaps more accurately described as enhanced wrap-around with local peaks of wind gusts created by any convective cells, watching radar for any pertinent details as broken squall line racing forward ahead of low centre is very likely and could produce peak gusts earlier than otherwise expected.

Will predict max gusts of 150 km/hr at coastal locations like Brighton, scaled to 110 at Gatwick airport, terrain and exposure factors will determine specifics in between. You could slide that regime southwest to a similar prediction IOW to Salisbury.

Tricky to predict coastal gusts west of landfall as there will be two peaks, one before and one in wrap-around WNW winds after landfall. Both peaks may be about 120-130 km/hr in places like Exeter and Poole. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

What winds am I due in Manston kent bit worrying as I'm at an open field where we get very powerful gusts from the two miles of just field 

Someone please tell me

[WYorksWeather]

Latest from Meteociel:

Centre at 956mb, ECM had it at 958mb at about this time.

[lottiekent]

4 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

What winds am I due in Manston kent bit worrying as I'm at an open field where we get very powerful gusts from the two miles of just field 

Looks like they’re thinking 50 - 59mph gusts for you 

Manston (Kent) weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Manston 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

[CurtisOliver]

Just now, WYorksWeather said:

Latest from Meteociel:

Centre at 956mb, ECM had it at 958mb at about this time.

This has the making of a memorable storm. 

[Fiona Robertson]

From an hour ago, don't know when image was grabbed. 

 

[pinball wizard]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Strongest wind gust so far is 148 km/hr at Pointe St-mathieu near Brest, Brittany buoy is at 973 bs and 89 km/hr sustained gusting to 120 km/hr from SW. Strong for a buoy only 3m above mean surface in big waves (wind is forced up a bit by waves so open ocean gusts will be 20-40% stronger on exposed coasts nearby) Low centre on satellite is around 49.3N 8.0 W, looks likely to go directly over south coast Cornwall, Plymouth-Exeter areas and slide inland over east Devon or west Dorset. Track towards Reading and eventually Cambridge? Think it will overperform current warnings in southeast. Wind damage and disruption is possible anywhere south of Salisbury to Basingstoke to central or north London to Norwich. Red alert conditions will verify in some more exposed locations within that zone, and orange will be widespread (and would include Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, Wilts, parts of Oxfordshire also. 

On subject of sting jet, this is perhaps more accurately described as enhanced wrap-around with local peaks of wind gusts created by any convective cells, watching radar for any pertinent details as broken squall line racing forward ahead of low centre is very likely and could produce peak gusts earlier than otherwise expected.

Will predict max gusts of 150 km/hr at coastal locations like Brighton, scaled to 110 at Gatwick airport, terrain and exposure factors will determine specifics in between. You could slide that regime southwest to a similar prediction IOW to Salisbury.

Tricky to predict coastal gusts west of landfall as there will be two peaks, one before and one in wrap-around WNW winds after landfall. Both peaks may be about 120-130 km/hr in places like Exeter and Poole. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enter the competition here: 

 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Just now, lottiekent said:

Looks like they’re thinking 50 - 59mph gusts for you 

Manston (Kent) weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Manston 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

 

I checked charts there saying 75 if it's shifts north I'm doomed