Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[topo]

This is a so weird set up for this time of the year..

Usually you expect to see something like this in February.

[sebastiaan1973]

This is some serious cold. Anomaly chart for temperature at 2 meter.

[Ali1977]

The height anomaly chart for the entire NH is mental

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It strikes me that there are 3 options with this Atlantic lows meet cold pool thing:

1. The lows disrupt to form a train of small lows that can slide and follow a southerly jet and track south.
2. A deeper low gets stalled on the approach to the cold air, and resulting WAA pumps up heights into Scandi (like ECM 12z).
3. A deeper low barges straight through and obliterates the cold pool (at least as far as it affects the UK).

The third is the only one that carries the risk of fully unleashing the Atlantic subsequently.

We’ve been watching this for a while now, where’s your money?  

Option 2 renewed heights I'm going for....  

[booferking]

@bluearmy the Pacific ridge is a monster.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

[icykev]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It strikes me that there are 3 options with this Atlantic lows meet cold pool thing:

1. The lows disrupt to form a train of small lows that can slide and follow a southerly jet and track south.
2. A deeper low gets stalled on the approach to the cold air, and resulting WAA pumps up heights into Scandi.
3. A deeper low barges straight through and obliterates the cold pool (at least as far as it affects the UK).

The third is the only one that carries the risk of fully unleashing the Atlantic subsequently.

We’ve been watching this for a while now, where’s your money?  

My money  would be on No 2 @Mike Poole, been looking like scandi high for a while now imo. We'll see Got to love the drama of the model output yet again. Interesting pub run too coming up. Maybe the Atlantic influence and return of westerlies@Met4Cast alluded to again will be wrong again. I believe the causes/drivers of our weather are not fullly understood yet, especially how they interact with one another and tbh I'm not sure they ever will be, its too complex imo.

Stella's baps and maybe snow shoes on @legritter

What I would do for a really cold snowy white Christmas  

Here's to hoping  

BTW @Met4Castno dig, you're one of the best, very knowledgeable and thank you for sharing your skills on this great platform

[nick sussex]

Interesting ! 

Only one run and we’d need to see westwards corrections .

Should keep this thread busy with the ECM dangling the possible easterly tease !

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

The DEEP cold is backing West….that LP imo would slide/disrupt under.

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Well that’s an interesting day for sure 

wouldn’t pay much attention to upstream deep Atlantic lows at day 9/10 for now 

and the polar field won’t be well modelled beyond 4 days 

that n pacific ridge looks timed well in week 2 to add heights and WAA into the Arctic 

Always fun to be chasing a bit of snow whilst the next chase potentially comes into view 

of course this could all go pop on the 00z runs 

next question is how many on the eps op cluster and how will the control differ from the op by day 9/10 

the detail days 4/7 are too tricky to pin down for now 

[Hotspur62]

I just can’t believe how mild the US is by 10th December(would post chart if I knew what I was doing).Is that the effect of the Canadian warming?.Over to our shores and its incredible the uncertainty of the models for just 72hrs and the implications that has going forward to the middle of next week.I still think the less cold conditions will prevail but for how long is anybody’s guess.Fascinating times and I think that Northern England and Scotland may not warm up much at all!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here’s the point of direction imo of where the ecm would lead to.

 

focus on Southern tip of Greenland at t216.  Now look at t240

 

 

the blocking is winning

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bats32]

Boom! There we go!

[Big Gally]

Remember again the gfs picked up the signal a couple of days ago right at the end of the run. Mabey the rest are starting to sniff it out now? Anyways keeps us in the game ️

[Lincs Observation]

Apparently satellite information concludes 60% of continental Europe is covered in snow. 
 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The low at 72 hrs is quite a bit further south than this morning comparing the 12z with the 00z fax charts for Sunday...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Wow that ECM!  Almost the Easterly that a certain poster from Crewe has been touting for a while.  Fair play if it comes off!

[LRD]

First time in ages (from what I can recall) I've seen a proper cold high modelled over Scandi to drive cold westwards. It's usually Azores Highs going up there or a Euro high travelling north (not that either of those things happen often either). Never the same as a proper cold-sourced high. That's where the truly cold Scandi high spells come from

Likely gone in 12 hours but nice to see

[Harveyslugger]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

The low at 72 hrs is quite a bit further south than this morning comparing the 12z with the 00z fax charts for Sunday...

Does that mean more chance of snow for southern UK?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

look at Russia, Arctic and Baltic…..incredible VAST COLD pooling.  If we are to get a propensity of -ve NAO and frequent easterly incursions with jet and Lps diving south of us….then that cold pooling is what one would anticipate 

 

BFTP

Edited November 30, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

Remember again the gfs picked up the signal a couple of days ago right at the end of the run. Mabey the rest are starting to sniff it out now? Anyways keeps us in the game ️

The gfs is the only model that goes past day 10

over the past couple of days it has produced pretty much every conceivable outcome post day 10. So it’s not a surprise that it will have hit the bulls eye at some point

[Big Gally]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The gfs is the only model that goes past day 10

over the past couple of days it has produced pretty much every conceivable outcome post day 10. So it’s not a surprise that it will have hit the bulls eye at some point

reminds me a bit the daily express.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Does that mean more chance of snow for southern UK?

Not nessesery no,we are looking for these lows to disrupt and track further S/SE so that we stay on the cold side of the jet for longer.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Allseasons-Si

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Not nessesery no,we are looking for these lows to disrupt and track further S/SE so that we stay on the cold side of the jet.

and avoid a washout Monday, like GFS shows, need a southerly correction for a dry day

[Cold Winter Night]

That huge High that ECM had just North of Kazakhstan on the 0z and previous runs, has shifted some 2000 km West.
A good illustration of the difference that makes for us, because instead of a being a wall keeping Siberian cold out of Europe, it becomes a conveyor belt rapidly transporting that cold West.

At 240h the very deep cold has made it to eastern Poland already.
The control run will be interesting viewing, I think after 240h it could very well be a boom run.