Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Alexis]

Pretty sure not a single ECM run was showing a 1050 Azores High 5 days ago, so why does anyone expect it to right at 240h today?

Sometimes it's just better not to look past 144h.

[swfc]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec day 8

This mornings run

 

Yep both poor

[LRD]

Just now, Bricriu said:

That will be enough for me if it happens. Then hopefully we get a sustained cold spell in the new year

You should be in a great location. As I said previously, NI and Ireland, Scotland and NW England (maybe relying on height) look like they'll get some kind of wintry blast late next week. Could go wrong of course but it's the way it's trending

For me, there's likely to be nothing but hey-ho

[swfc]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

On the naughty step for 2 days at least & that's not to do with the output

Possibly the best chart of the winter so far,

[bluearmy]

34 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Pretty sure not a single ECM run was showing a 1050 Azores High 5 days ago, so why does anyone expect it to right at 240h today?

Sometimes it's just better not to look past 144h.

The 1050 Azores high is showing at day 7 so I agree that the ec op wouldn’t have been showing that 5 days ago ……

(to avoid doubt the op doesn’t do day 12)

Edited December 12, 2023 by bluearmy

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone who thinks the 240 ECM chart is bad on face value if it was to be definitive has a lot to learn.

From flicking from ECM 216 to 240. A cold plunge is clearly on the way,

Perhaps for more northern areas but the euro heights are clearly a problem with a strong jet stream, you want the low heights to dig into Europe there’s a clear barrier. High pressure on near continent is one of biggest red flags there is cold will always struggle to advance south.

[Troubleatmill]

16 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Pretty sure not a single ECM run was showing a 1050 Azores High 5 days ago, so why does anyone expect it to right at 240h today?

Sometimes it's just better not to look past 144h.

Sometimes I guess, yes, but sometimes...most of the time, it's just looking for hope & possibilities rather than fact 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The vortex is showing signs of moving toward Siberia and slowly draining away from Canada with tentative signs of high rises putting pressure on the vortex, linked to the Canadian warming few wks ago? 

When we go through a period of zonality the models do tend to go into default at times effectively changing its entire output to dampen previous signals, ie mjo...

However i believe we're going to now start to go through changes within the model output which should slowly begin to play catch-up with previous signals. 

If we can see positive mountain torque events over Asia which was the form horse aka direction of travel until recently when we've had - EAMT but showing tentative signs of reversing.

All to play for the next wk for me

[bluearmy]

Eps generally more bullish on the gfs and gem type solution than the op. Control brings a trough across Xmas eve but it digs a little west to begin with so uppers are more -4/-5 than -6/-7

[Chesil View]

Lots of frustration and gnashing of teeth in here tonight but in reality to me the Ecm simply looks like a slightly slower evolution of the gfs run to me

[E17boy]

That Iberian high is beginning to ring alarm bells especially for the south. If that high goes into souther Europe dare I say we could easily get stuck in a rut position for ages. You don’t have to go back to far in history to see that this high has been the slug and spoiler of many of our winters.

Whilst there is still plenty of time for things to change the models will struggle as to how far south any PM incursion can get. At the moment I am not seeing any setup that us coldies are waiting for albeit that may or could  change in the coming days.

[AO-]

Good evening all,

A lot of patience is needed as we are still looking past day ten. Which was the case two days ago as well. I am not convinced, even though signs are there for a cold snap. Ec has a strong jet. Not to mention the cold pool on the Westcoast of Greenland. GFS is forecasting a white Christmas for here, but I would like to see more support. The EPS is not great.

Edited December 12, 2023 by AO-

[Daniel*]

Pretty clear OP was somewhat of an outlier with ridging into Europe at day 10. Appears trop vortex is going to migrate eastwards to Scandinavia which is in line with GFS.

EPS

[Vikos]

Well, an outlier for me

GFS

Edited December 12, 2023 by Vikos

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

You'll be surprised to read that I agree with you. Looks like the PV is shifting to the eastern hemisphere. Could be delaying what GEM and GFS are seeing. Or it's just an outlier

Don't see anything prolonged but it could be a potent 3 or 4 day spell at some point near or over Xmas

Agreed LRD….let’s move forward and start afresh.  Sorry if I peeved you

 

regards

 

BFTP

[TSNWK]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps generally more bullish on the gfs and gem type solution than the op. Control brings a trough across Xmas eve but it digs a little west to begin with so uppers are more -4/-5 than -6/-7

Control on meto only up to Friday 22nd..

[sebastiaan1973]

Windplume for De Bilt, I guess there will be almost the same for the south of England. Almost entirely west or southwest winds.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed LRD….let’s move forward and start afresh.  Sorry if I peeved you

 

regards

 

BFTP

Ah, I probably over-reacted a bit mate. Let's bury the hatchet - it's nearly Xmas!

[damianslaw]

Whilst at the end of its run, the ECM continues to trend to GFS just different timescales.

The most important development is the NE Canadian ridge, energy injected into the north west atlantic will be weak as a result, and this allows the trough to the NW to dig SE.

[Mike Poole]

ECM control similar to the op at T240 as one would expect:

Leads to this at T300:

Slightly slower with the very cold air, but absolutely on track…

[johncam]

ECM control is very poor out till 312, nothing wintry at all 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Ah, I probably over-reacted a bit mate. Let's bury the hatchet - it's nearly Xmas!

Happily done.  Let’s have a cracking build up

 

best

 

Fred

[feb1991blizzard]

Best D10+ eps graph of season so far in terms of no. of cold(ish)  members but still very few would cut it for snow in lowland N England (here) so even fewer further south low land.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM control similar to the op at T240 as one would expect:

Leads to this at T300:

Slightly slower with the very cold air, but absolutely on track…

Cold rain for Xmas according to the last chart,unless you live up a big hill.

More concerning is the NH profile ...big +AO/ NAO moving towards the end of Dec.

[Dennis]

some on strato and vortex ; split forseen