Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

At day 10 on the GEM there is outside chance of a scandi high developing..a link up with the mid Atlantic ridge and heights across Scandi on the rise..one too watch in future runs

Did you spot that also ECM?

[Drifter]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

He loves cold and tells it like it is. it’s not great unfortunately.

Not quite sure what that’s got to do with what I said? My point was, the runs haven’t been great all day so not sure why we’re so surprised at them turning out like this. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Drifter

[Metwatch]

I can tell some in the south are desperate, with the main focus still on later next week's possible Polar Maritime incursion, which may not even last more than 3-4 days and bring something wintry only to higher ground in the northwest. Compared to the pattern North / western Europe was in 2 weeks ago, to me it really isn't much to write home about.

The main interest I think is still later in January, if an SSW happens coupled with other factors such as the likes of another MJO progression into phases 7-8-1 and +AAM, in favour of those wanting something colder.

Still, we have had a much better start to winter than some recent ones so personally we aren't doing too bad and a fair few have already seen some nice falls of snow (apologies to those in the south I know you're still snow starved). We're only approaching the 20% point through the meteorological winter, so a lot more opportunites to get through i'm sure!

Edited December 14, 2023 by Metwatch

[Lukesluckybunch]

The mean at 150 is a lot flatter also..compared to the 6z

[nick sussex]

We await the ECM just as Princess Leia awaited Obi Wan Kenobi .

You know it’s a Code Red Emergency when I start using film analogies .

The battle to save Christmas rests with the ECM .

So far this evening the dark side of the force is in the ascendancy.

 

[Kentspur]

Latest 12z GFS  op is one for the bin. Off the scale amongst its ensembles especially further North!

[AO-]

Let's hope the high resolution of EC makes a difference with respect to the pattern that is being shaped right now with the vortex in the move. The GFS picked up the pattern pretty well. Now is time for EC, which wasn't that bad this morning at day 7-10, to show the difference. I think EC is beter at dealing with such complex situations 

Edited December 14, 2023 by AO-

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Latest 12z GFS  op is one for the bin. Off the scale amongst its ensembles especially further North!

Blommin slim pickings though.. even the coldest outlier struggling to break -5 in south

[Nick F]

12z GFS control has a better angle for the jet stream (NW-SE rather than W-E) to bring the cold SE further / quicker with deeper digging of the trough to the east over eastern Europe for Friday next week compared to 12z GFS op.

12z GFS control

12z GFS op

[Jason M]

48 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Over many parts it will be, apologies wasn’t being location specific. 

No need for that, was just an observation on my part that I happened to notice 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z GFS control has a better angle for the jet stream (NW-SE rather than W-E) to bring the cold SE further / quicker with deeper digging of the trough to the east over eastern Europe for Friday next week compared to 12z GFS op.

12z GFS control

12z GFS op

That would be great if you lived in Norway unfortunately.

[Alexis]

Looks like that little low west of the Azores is scuppering things as well.

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Blommin slim pickings though.. even the coldest outlier struggling to break -5 in south

True, but it's not like they've latched onto a new signal though. Just the same disagreements as the last couple of days.

[Mike Poole]

A few SSW realisations showing on Stratobserve today:

Looking deeper suggests the reversals are from the FNMOC model, not sure which one that is (is it NASA’s one? it could even be the NAVGEM for all I know!). Anyway, the minimaps are revealing in so much as an indication of the direction of travel:

The ones with the negative zonal winds are the ones where the vortex is forced right into the Russian side, so much so that some of them split, but not in the usual way, more they are forced to the extremities of the hemisphere.  

At the moment, I don’t see an energetic split that reshuffles the deck with this, so what the ramifications might be are uncertain.  But we’re headed towards a very weak strat vortex, I think it is really important  that we get finally some help on the same timeframe from rising AAM to force a better trop pattern.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Mike Poole
Corrected chart

[Dennis]

good charts folk by GEM , and i did see such on GFS too (in one of the recent runs)

i think surprises are in too Xmas 

 

[BartyHater]

Whilst there’s no denying the 12 GFS Ops is pants and the UKMO/GEM not a lot better, I’m unsure why no one seems to have mentioned the only straw we can all clutch…for 12 hours anyway.

I give you….the mighty ICON

OK Bing ain’t going to sing quite yet, but it does at least look interesting just 72hrs before the big lad arrives.

 

 

 

[Derecho]

From the model output I can foresee three possible scenarios

1) We get a northerly and a wedge towards the Greenland area that helps sustains a colder pattern - can't see this happening. Looking at the previous round of GFS ens this is the closest I can find.

2) We don't get northern blocking but high pressure avoids Europe for a little while allowing for alternating periods of chilly and mild up to christmas or just after christmas. Potentially a stormy pattern and at least holds some interest as the cold shots will be sharper and pushing further south.

3) High pressure leeches into Europe and as a result mild air wins the battle in the south with fleeting chilly and mild spells in the north. This is the scenario we don't want but it could happen. Time and time again in recent years (and the cold spell at the start of the month) pressure has somehow found a way to increase over Spain or central Europe to end our cold spells early. SLP trends over time have shown that pressure has increased over the continent as our climate warms.

I often therefore sit on the fence when committing to a cold spell unless I can be sure heights over Europe won't be an issue.

It'll be difficult to see some decent cold for the rest of December if the outcome of this pre-festive period is a poor one so hopefully we can get 1) or 2) but prepare for 3).... Sorry to be a scrooge but the output isn't very exciting at the moment from my perspective though the situation can change.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Derecho

[jy]

36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We await the ECM just as Princess Leia awaited Obi Wan Kenobi .

You know it’s a Code Red Emergency when I start using film analogies .

The battle to save Christmas rests with the ECM .

So far this evening the dark side of the force is in the ascendancy.

 

Wouldn't matter the Sussex Shortwave would scupper it lol

[Big Gally]

These models remind me of the vengaboys song up& down. Don’t worry folks the venga bus is coming. Still loads time.

[lassie23]

i can't get excited about anything coming from the West or NW, that usually transfers as 7c and sleety rain in London at best

[Bradley1993]

Lastest AO 

Lastest NAO 

[Purga]

So a wet, windy & mild Christmas for most followed by a massive Bartlett and very mild for all into the New Year (diabolical charts) - now there's a surprise...

[weathercold]

As disappointing as these charts are and with  early January showing no signs of a dramatic change (background signal wise) the UKMO seasonal is looking more and more a decent call right now. Plenty of time for change but unlike some others I see no evident signal for cold/wintry weather. SSW to save winter 23/24? 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Purga said:

So a wet, windy & mild Christmas for most followed by a massive Bartlett and very mild for all into the New Year (diabolical charts) - now there's a surprise...

Contain yourself. Probably gone on the 18z

[Mike Poole]

Still plenty of spread on the ensembles, there is nothing even slightly nailed down about this yet, here’s a couple I liked at T240:

One thing that I think might become relevant as we see from what precise direction any cold air makes its way towards us, is SSTs, in particular, if it is incoming from the NW, there is a clear warm anomaly from that direction that won’t help:

So we would prefer an evolution that has winds as close to northerly as possible.

[Allseasons-Si]

Toasty from the control run up top

i do feel like this cold plunge is going to fail  IMO with just the NW hills seeing snow because the 850's don't look cold enough even for here,i know that people don't want to hear this but that is what i am seeing ATM,there is still time however to turn things around for a colder Chrimbo

as @Catacol say's,i think best optimum time after the lag effect's from the mjo into phase 7-8-1 would land mid Jan.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo