Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Spah1]

A couple more added to the ignore list. 
 

Some waffle being written on here. 
 

The clusters Mike referred to are outside the reliable time frame. 

Still all to play for

Imagine if the models only went to 168hrs. Would you take this? 

[northwestsnow]

The high will likely sink at day 8 9nwards but that might not be the end of the story..

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The high will likely sink at day 8 9nwards but that might not be the end of the story..

Glancing blow on this run...you can see where all the cold air is!

[Ali1977]

Here comes more WAA

[Harsh Climate]

If we was to compare like for like the GFs 6z is a big improvement than the 00z, can't ask for much more! 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[northwestsnow]

Very disorganised vortex!!

[TSNWK]

Definitely getting short to mid range upgrades. With more influence from a fridge continent.. next weekend afterwards to be settled and time for improvement 

[Gowon]

Haven't seen @Dennis for a while

[Ali1977]

Serious blocking heading into play - but we are so far away from knowing what happens even by day 6 though!! 

[IDO]

There is substantive cold in Europe, we just need the right trigger for something exceptional on this run:

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just a little too much in that Northern arm..problem is we can't keep saying the op is a mild outlier..when is it going to catch up.

[Harsh Climate]

Unusual set up on this GFS 6z run, almost as if heights towards Greenland and the north of us are being built from the south up rather than the conventional way of WAA up the left hand side inflating a blocking high!

Let's hope the GFS is onto something here, would gradually turn colder from the east with a strengthening block to the north and west.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Haven't seen @Dennis for a while

Snowed in with leccy down because of blizzards.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, IDO said:

There is substantive cold in Europe, we just need the right trigger for something exceptional on this run:

That cold is spinning away unfortunately

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do some of you actually even view all the ensembles before making a call! Every morning everyday of the year its the same its all going wrong philosophy...the talk for a while as been the 2nd half to mid month period of January when things start to happen. But the old Amazon attitude of see something today,and want it tomorrow is in full affect.

The sheer amount of ens from ecm that really slice that NH open are large. There appears to.be hardly appetite for a flat zonal pattern at all.

I'm doing my best here to tell you how I see it and keep the positives high...if there was no ensemble support I wouldn't be posting. But so many its going wrong,it always goes wrong is making me have doubts now...even though I'm seeing good output.

Time out for me folks...im wishing you a very happy new year and all the luck and good health 2024 can throw at ya...if your suffering then I'm sending you strength and wishing you a full recovery. Its my Dad's funeral next week so time for me to try and get my head straight.

Keep the belief it looks OK.

[northwestsnow]

At least it will be dry ..and chilly 

[That ECM]

See you later.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good morning folks. Well to add a Positive note to the last day of 2023, it's good to see a drying trend this coming week as we move into 2024 ,and a trend for much colder conditions.  Without being picky, but too many people are looking at false summits/ horizons with regard for the chase of proper winter, and getting very deflated when there is another clanger in the works! As most of you realise, model output after 10 days is often fictitious, but I think we can move that to the maximum of six days at the moment! Looking good for the prospect of cold, not as some coldies would like it ,Re ,a 1962 style winter, but, how often does a Winter of that preportions come along, ? It was the coldest Winter since 1740! Expectations, can be a little too high, so lower your expectations, and then you may well be surprised and happy with the dessert in front of you ! Here are two Seasonal charts coming up for the end of this week, and even these charts are subject to change.!!!.☺

[KyleHenry]

There were hints that the TPV could fall entirely into Europe. Which would be an atomic hit of cold air if that occurred. I remain hesitant on that outcome for now.

Whereas normally 70/30 and the seventy going into North America.

Anyway the movement of the TPV is still to be resolved but the predicted timing 9/10th  Jan for UK cold/snow prospects still holds for now.  
 

 

The TPV pattern is there on both models, which would align with -40C expectations for Scandinavia. 

[weathercold]

Based solely on the 6z we are so close to something exceptional we just can’t seem to trigger momentum to fall in place. There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.

[northwestsnow]

Deep into FI..

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, weathercold said:

Based solely on the 6z we are so close to something exceptional we just can’t seem to trigger momentum to fall in place. There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.

Too early to call mate, models are only just starting to get to grips with upcoming pattern change. 

''There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.'' That will always be the case on our tiny island!

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Deep into FI..

just freezing the ground before the snow arrives. 

[IDO]

The last two GFS runs have forecast a Pacific ridge after D10, so we will see the westerly flow slow and stall further:

There will be a sympathetic ridge in the Atlantic quadrant. Sadly, on this run, it is UK-based, forcing the extreme cold to our east leaving the UK under faux cold. This is way out in la-la land so can and will change, but if GFS has this upstream forcing modelled well, then mid-Jan could be interesting with a bit of luck... 

 

[Harsh Climate]

26 minutes ago, Johnp said:

just freezing the ground before the snow arrives. 

Great point that, I remember an Easterly in January years ago where up to a foot of snow was forecast, after a week of heavy snow we ended up with only a  couple inch of slush because even though air temps where around freezing the ground was too warm and melted the snow from below! Preceding the easterly we had no frosts only milder weather.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate