Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

I don't want to say I told you all so but.....

The ECM lacked the detail and as such has moved towards the GFS.

I'm pretty sure the GFS picked up on the energy SE of Greenland before any of them ? 

[Harsh Climate]

GFS 6z already coming out and looking worse than 00z even at 138h

This low being projected further east of southern Greenland does not help matters at all early/mid range! We need it less apparent or more favourably sucked up left hand side of Greenland.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Close to yes but not majorly supported and nothing sustained, flattened at day 10.

It was lining up for a NE at day 10 

[winterof79]

The modelling of the strength of the Genoa low is interesting as here we have Nasa ECM and UKMO developing the system sufficiently up to when i believe FI begins.

GFS has more energy riding over the top to our North.

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I can’t see the despondency, pretty decent set of 00z runs.  SE for a change certainly looking in a good place.  This first bite for me is just that, as mentioned I anticipate there to be a second hit and of a stronger block….with surface cold not really disappearing before it arrives.  ECM at t240 looks primed for the retrograde.

 

from Spaceweather the talk is NASA says a SSW is occurring.  But it’s warming and hitting a stratosphere that was incredibly cold and the warming isn’t anticipated to be as string as 2018 but is much earlier in the season.  I mentioned a while back if the starting supercold point would have an effect.  
For me half glass full beginning to get re-filled

 

BFTP

A UK centred high doesn’t cut it for many - most want proper winter in the heart of winter - with snow. Current projections aren’t looking likely. 

[Scandinavian High.]

I don’t think models have right outcomes yet regarding placement where high will end up yet lots changes to come a uk high wouldn’t be a bad thing over time start to edge north with an easterly slider lows .

 

 

[Ali1977]

This is going to be great, that low in the med holding well - heights about to rise - cold incoming

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

GFS 6z already coming out and looking worse than 00z even at 138h

This low being projected further east of southern Greenland does not help matters at all early/mid range! We need it less apparent or more favourably sucked up left hand side of Greenland.

Writing on the wall here - we need some realism.  With the ECM esembles, GFS, GEM and now the current GFS run we are losing this chase imo.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Writing on the wall here - we need some realism.  With the ECM esembles, GFS, GEM and now the current GFS run we are losing this chase imo.

[CoventryWeather]

Too much uncertainty in the forecast up to day 7/8 - that low hasn't developed yet. 

I would expect some of the low to disrupt south east, rather than all of it going towards Greenland. But as many have mentioned, there are plenty of opportunities next month. Give it a few days and see where we are - the 12z could move back towards something more amplified again tomorrow less. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Good old UK high setting in!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

A UK centred high doesn’t cut it for many - most want proper winter in the heart of winter - with snow. Current projections aren’t looking likely. 

A uk High is the likely start whereby we move forward.  The set up isn’t going to allow a stagnant UK High.  Trouble is the ‘wanting it now’ which I understand.

 

BFTP

[seabreeze86]

I’ve always thought that for all the GFS’s flaws is not to be dismissed around Greenland often finds shortwaves first 

[That ECM]

Yet gfs is leading the way?

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Writing on the wall here - we need some realism.  With the ECM esembles, GFS, GEM and now the current GFS run we are losing this chase imo.

The assembles are fickle - Everything is still evolving

[Beanz]

6 minutes ago, weathercold said:

A UK centred high doesn’t cut it for many - most want proper winter in the heart of winter - with snow. Current projections aren’t looking likely. 

A UK centred high can produce some quite cold and frosty weather, very much typical of winter - I think the models have been favouring that solution for a few days but for some unknown reason it’s been largely ignored.  Sometimes I wish people would accept the model output for what it is, not trying to bend it towards something they want.  

After a period of cold, possibly a bit anticyclonic weather there is nothing to say things won’t move favourable from there.  

Edited December 31, 2023 by Beanz

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Good old UK high setting in!

Looks more interesting than just a U.K. high 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ali1977

[weathercold]

Just now, Beanz said:

A UK centred high can produce some quite cold and frosty weather, very much typical of winter - I think the models have been favouring that solution for a few days but for some unknown reason it’s been largely ignored.  Sometimes I wish people would accept the model output for what it is, not trying to bend it towards something they want.  

And the reality is that won’t cut it for most. That high could likely sit over us for days eating away winter or sink. We are now at the critical juncture of winter and we need results soon. I’m all for hyping cold and snowy charts if I see them, just don’t at the moment.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Looks more interesting than just a U.K. high 

Hopefully it will make it!

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Writing on the wall here - we need some realism.  With the ECM esembles, GFS, GEM and now the current GFS run we are losing this chase imo.

[seabreeze86]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks more interesting than just a U.K. high 

Yes more chance of boxing in the high here I think 

or maybe not 

Edited December 31, 2023 by seabreeze86

[Vikos]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

People are talking as if we’re loosing the signal for cold - when it’s actually increasing with every run

Good and informative post are currently getting flushed away by numerous oneliners commenting every single timeframe chart trying to spot even the smallest change to previous runs… I mean since yesterday evening there are +200 new posts, I am losing the grip. So thanks to those who are reposting gold post like from @Tamara

[Beanz]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

And the reality is that won’t cut it for most. That high could likely sit over us for days eating away winter or sink. We are now at the critical juncture of winter and we need results soon. I’m all for hyping cold and snowy charts if I see them, just don’t at the moment.

Well, this is model output not a weather menu

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks more interesting than just a U.K. high 

If there is one positive I can find on this run compared to 00z, The blocking high is centered a few hundred miles further north than 00z run.

Correction, at 204h several hundred miles further north!

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Ali1977]

Great run this

 

Now bring on the second lot of WAA around day 11 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ali1977