Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, Rain Lady said:

Annual total 1758.9 mm by this morning at 9GMT.   Beefy showers since then.

Grim gloomy conditions.  Can anyone remember blue skies and sun?

Having a bit of blue sky here at the moment, it has stayed dry today so far.  Some darker clouds out south don't think it will be dry for much longer.

[Dan B]

6ºC here; temps dropped and skies have cleared

 

Just gave the BMW a contactless wash & popped it back up the drive and plugged it back onto trickle (its hardly being used currently)

[cheshire snow]

Merry Christmas you filthy Animals 

A Cold NW flow just in time for Christmas.

[Joe Snow]

Interesting MO long range update hints at potential cold shots from the NW/ N both next week and perhaps over the Xmas period - 12z GFS seems to be going by that script tonight too but more runs are definitely needed. NW England would do very well out of such a setup particularly over higher ground. 
 

Alternating colder & milder spells of weather may run until something more blocked in January/ Feb maybe? We have to remember the cold we have had has been some what of a bonus as El Niño winters tend to be back loaded traditionally. Lots of reactive noise on the mad thread over the last few days but signs long term still look optimistic for a proper bite of Winter as we enter the coldest part of the season most conducive for lying snow & a prolonged cold spell  late Dec- Early Feb  

[Scuba steve]

1 hour ago, Dan B said:

6ºC here; temps dropped and skies have cleared

 

Just gave the BMW a contactless wash & popped it back up the drive and plugged it back onto trickle (its hardly being used currently)

My campers always plugged in for batteries and a low heater

Not a bad day could be worse so got tree up and decorations

[Spah1]

“It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north.”
 

One of my favourite things to do;

radar + lamppost + NW Forum + beer and curry + Sport on TV. 
 

love a mid Atlantic ridge, bring it on. 

[damianslaw]

Today here at least marks the earliest sunset, 15:46, we lose no more light in the afternoons from here on in. The next few days see a static sunset time. It isn't until 29 Dec we bottom out sunrise wise.

We are thus entering peak darkness period.

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

“It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north.”
 

One of my favourite things to do;

radar + lamppost + NW Forum + beer and curry + Sport on TV. 
 

love a mid Atlantic ridge, bring it on. 

If it occurs on Sat 23 Dec, could make for a very festive wintry Sat night. 

[carinthian]

If was a betting man, I would put punt on a Manchester white . Only going what I can  read into this evening.

C

[weatherobsuk]

I managed to catch the 'Royal Scot' passing through Edale station earlier on this morning at 11:20, the weather was a mix bag of hill-fog, torrential rain, and sunshine all within the span of 45 minutes whilst I was patiently waiting. 

[Dan B]

35 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

My campers always plugged in for batteries and a low heater

Not a bad day could be worse so got tree up and decorations

 

Aye; I've just fitted & registered a new battery to the F31; it had the original dated 2015 & it'd dropped to 51%, so a good time to get it done. Be sods law it conks out over Christmas etc

 

The CTEK will keep it sweet whilst it's not being used

[iand61]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Merry Christmas you filthy Animals 

A Cold NW flow just in time for Christmas.

Still plenty of time for it to change but it’s unusual to have the possibility of a region wide event rather than the usual that one towns gain is another towns loss.

TBH though it looks like it may have more of a westerly feed to it as a north westerly would usually leave here and the rest of East Lancashire dry with the showers passing to our west down towards Manchester.

I’ll definitely take the potential though.

Just had a three day enforced break from here thanks to our mobile phone and internet provider having local “mast issues”

I was that bored on Sunday night that I actually picked up a book with pages in it and spent a decent couple of hours walking the Lakeland fells with the late great Alfred Wainwright rather than reading on my IPad

lesson learned was not to have all of your IT eggs in one basket

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Merry Christmas you filthy Animals 

A Cold NW flow just in time for Christmas.

That is very pleasing to the eye, if only it wasn't so far away.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Merry Christmas you filthy Animals 

A Cold NW flow just in time for Christmas.

[Day 10]

59 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

“It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north.”
 

One of my favourite things to do;

radar + lamppost + NW Forum + beer and curry + Sport on TV. 
 

love a mid Atlantic ridge, bring it on. 

200m + away from the coast + letdown + windy + crap = you moaning when the warnings come out

(I'm only messing mate)

[Weather-history]

I made the mistake of looking at the model thread and came away with the following conclusions

1) Some need to get out more instead of becoming highly strung on the nuances of every model run

2) Only a fool gets an ulcer over something they can't control 

3) I know how  someone panning for gold feels, finding the little nuggets  amongst the histrionic  dross.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Weather-history

[WillinGlossop]

Thank you Had Worse for your lovely Christmas card lovely to see you and meet your partner, Happy Birthday to her again and thank you for the delicious cakes Good luck with the baking tomorrow too

Made some pretty hot (it was a builder ) Piri Piri chicken for tea with rainbow rice 

Piri-piri chicken

WWW.BBCGOODFOOD.COM

---

This oven-roasted chicken can also be spatchcocked and barbecued. If you don't like it too hot, adjust the amount of chillies in the piri-piri marinade

Looking interesting weather coming up… hopefully a few drier days and can get out in garden to sort a few bits and cut back a few things… hoping for a bit of snow in Keswick over Christmas period… 

Woodburner on and cosy night in

[Weather-history]

The way the models are going, make the most of the "drier spell" because I suspect we are heading for yet another 100+mm month. There maybe snow in the mix at least for higher levels. 

GFS 0z up to 29th December

 

GEM is grotesque and this is only to 23rd December...again chances of  snow at least for higher levels. Hopefully, we wont' get these levels of precipitation......unless it comes with -10 850hpa air..... 

[Weather-history]

42 years ago today

 

        

 

      

  

[Iceaxecrampon]

Thanks for all your concerns. You’re such a good lot on here. I’ll be glad when this week is over. @Dark Horse especially thinking of you. This family has been blighted enough by that illness. 

Anyway let’s look forward and get back to liking these posts and especially @WillinGlossop cooking! 
 

We’re going Shap today for a mind clearer Terrier route on the Roman Road to Oddendale. Long way for a dog walk. Even my sons coming  with us today then Tebay farm shop

GFS looking interesting  

Take care and thanks again  

Iain. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

13 hours ago, iand61 said:

Still plenty of time for it to change but it’s unusual to have the possibility of a region wide event rather than the usual that one towns gain is another towns loss.

TBH though it looks like it may have more of a westerly feed to it as a north westerly would usually leave here and the rest of East Lancashire dry with the showers passing to our west down towards Manchester.

I’ll definitely take the potential though.

Just had a three day enforced break from here thanks to our mobile phone and internet provider having local “mast issues”

I was that bored on Sunday night that I actually picked up a book with pages in it and spent a decent couple of hours walking the Lakeland fells with the late great Alfred Wainwright rather than reading on my IPad

lesson learned was not to have all of your IT eggs in one basket

What volume Ian? And routes?  I’m intrigued. Southern Fells vol my favourite. Absolute legendary works. 

[dodge]

The trouble with the MAD thread is because of the South East bias they are not interested in North Westerly flows, that said although it ticks off the 'moisture' box in the list of snow falling criteria in my parts it really does need a good dollop of cold air mixed in and warm sectors booted out for it to transition from cold wet sleet, to decent appreciable snow depths from a NWstrly.  2010/11 the holy grail (x3 snowy footfalls) from Nwstrly shower streamers.  As usual hilly ground tend to do well in this usual setup.

Edited December 13, 2023 by dodge

[A Face like Thunder]

Mid-December 1981, I remember it well but in Surrey rather than the NW.

Nothing remotely similar today, with patchy rain clearing and signs of blue sky and a change of wind direction which, from the cloud movements, appears to be a Northerly. That would tie in with the forecast for today which moved the low pressure away from the region and introduced a short-lived colder N wind flow.  

[alr1970]

18 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Merry Christmas you filthy Animals 

A Cold NW flow just in time for Christmas.

As I'm heading for the middle of the green bit for Xmas, it should be nailed for up here now!

This has happened before, 2010 I think.

[Day 10]

Interesting spell being forecast just before the big day then!?

[WillinGlossop]

8 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Thanks for all your concerns. You’re such a good lot on here. I’ll be glad when this week is over. @Dark Horse especially thinking of you. This family has been blighted enough by that illness. 

Anyway let’s look forward and get back to liking these posts and especially @WillinGlossop cooking! 
 

We’re going Shap today for a mind clearer Terrier route on the Roman Road to Oddendale. Long way for a dog walk. Even my sons coming  with us today then Tebay farm shop

GFS looking interesting  

Take care and thanks again  

Iain. 

Cheers Glad you like my food posts  

making teriyaki pork tonight with stir fry veg, late tea as watching footy ️️️️

just had warning for snow tonight on accuweather

clear and colder tonight could be icy/frosty tomorrow morning… just dipped to 3c