Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS mean at 138 is holding steady and a little more amplified. No major changes.

[cheshire snow]

JFF

-11 uppers and snow in the SE

 

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wow the control run at 132 is so far north!

Control 

[northwestsnow]

Mean at 144 looks good..

we just got to hope for upgrades later ..

fingers crossed..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Get ya coat...you've pulled.

There's growing evidence we are going colder...I'll say too the missus when it lands you better put ya coat on tonight..oh great Matt are you taking me out? No love I'm turning off the heating..

Edited January 2 by MATTWOLVES 3

[sebastiaan1973]

Truly amazing charts. Lots of wind and -10c at 850 hPa hitting the eastcoast of England. Over the Northsea we join/ and welcome the wonderful air. 

[Kasim Awan]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 probably meaningless as we don't know if 120 is right

Not meaningless when it's carbon copy of ECM.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean at 144 looks good..

we just got to hope for upgrades later ..

fingers crossed..

Jma! 

It's been pretty consistent in keeping the ridge further north, obviously doesn't mean it's correct mind.

Edited January 2 by Battleground Snow

[Purga]

Now we're talking !

Hors d'oeuvres                                                                                                        to       Start of Main Course .... We hope

      

[Cloud 10]

GFS 00z run at 276 hrs now splits the PV all the way to 10mb,and notice how more pronounced it is at 100mb...

 

10mb.. ..30mb..

 

100mb..

[Drifter]

Well, I’d bank the 6z right now. Reload after reload!

[Ali1977]

Mean at 174, most importantly, moves the high a little north vs the 00z 

[WinterOf47]

Bit of perspective at this stage…most of us will be lucky to see more than 5 cms. However, this kind of chart is not always good at picking up localised accumulations from streamers. If the latest run pans out, I would expect to see a few lucky places on the East coast and south east get over 10-30 cms of snow locally.

[MJB]

Just now, WinterOf47 said:

Bit of perspective at this stage…most of us will be lucky to see more than 5 cms. However, this kind of chart is not always good at picking up localised accumulations from streamers. If the latest run pans out, I would expect to see a few lucky places on the East coast and south east get over 10-30 cms of snow locally.

5cm's will do in the cold air thankyou  

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Well, I’d bank the 6z right now. Reload after reload!

Excellent run, take it now 

[WinterOf47]

Just now, MJB said:

5cm's will do in the cold air thankyou  

I agree. If the grass is covered, the snow is powder, I will be quite happy. 

[winterof79]

34 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

if you look closely you can see atliantic hieights touching the pacific ridge over the pole.. Vortex split..

That split has been rumbling about in the GEFS for some time.One to watch.

Meteociel - Panel GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean at 174, most importantly, moves the high a little north vs the 00z 

300-400 miles is quite small globally, but for the UK it makes a massive difference, if we can get a simliar improvement on the 12z runs it will increase the chances of a undercut from the west which will help prop the high up.

[Catacol]

EPS for @Scott Inghamday still looking good…!

Edited January 2 by Catacol

[BIGDOG2]

2 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

I agree. If the grass is covered, the snow is powder, I will be quite happy. 

5cm of powder snow in windy conditions can cause problems with drifting 

[Beanz]

8 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

Bit of perspective at this stage…most of us will be lucky to see more than 5 cms. However, this kind of chart is not always good at picking up localised accumulations from streamers. If the latest run pans out, I would expect to see a few lucky places on the East coast and south east get over 10-30 cms of snow locally.

306hrs - pointless 

[swfc]

These attempt at ridging into Greenland are like my blood pressure. Up and down like a fiddlers elbow hopefully get the eventually

Edited January 2 by swfc

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

So you think the GFS has got a better hold on the wave break in that it's likely to be cleaner than other output suggests and hence produce more latitude & easterly flow? I think a few have alluded to the GFS better modelling these events.

I think the issue most of us have with ncep modelling is its ability to handle split flow, especially in the 7/10 day period when we begin to see the other models. Once it gets a handle that there is a split flow then it’s not as bad as most think.  (If you also ignore it’s habit of slow backtracking to the generally agreed cross model solution) 

[Climate Man]

12 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

Bit of perspective at this stage…most of us will be lucky to see more than 5 cms. However, this kind of chart is not always good at picking up localised accumulations from streamers. If the latest run pans out, I would expect to see a few lucky places on the East coast and south east get over 10-30 cms of snow locally.

That's fine,  will also help to achieve double digit severe frost.  All good.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs op was one of the colder runs..but the mean probably the coldest yet over the weekend dropping to -8

[ScottSnow]

For those talking about snow totals. We can’t forecast snow at 24hrs never mind a week or two weeks.

Take the December just gone. Parts of the Lake District were buried from snow that popped up at very short notice.

I keep saying it but let’s get the cold in first.

I have to say the runs lately have been very exciting and when added to the Meto musings, we do seem to have potential for a noteworthy spell of cold weather.